Risk Assessment of FMEA Based on Prospect Theory and PROMETHEE

doi:10.12005/orms.2018.0290

Abstract

Abstract: In order to consider the influence of group evaluation consistency and expert psychological perception behavior in risk assessment of failure mode and effect analysis, a method of risk assessment based on prospect theory and preference ranking organization method for enrichment evaluations (PROMETHEE) is proposed. Firstly, linguistic variables are introduced to characterize the risk factor evaluation information, and intuitionistic fuzzy entropy is used to determine the objective weight of risk factors. Secondly, the consistency of expert evaluation and group evaluation is depicted by the grey relation degree, and a optimization model is constructed with the maximum correlation degree and maximum entropy criterion. Thirdly, the subjective and objective weights of risk factors and experts are integrated, and the comprehensive weights of risk factors and experts are obtained. Then, the intuitionistic fuzzy weighted averaging operator is used to aggregate the expert evaluation information, and with the help of prospect theory, the prospect matrix of the reaction expert’s psychological perception is constructed. Finally, the PROMETHEE method is applied to determine the risk ranking of failure mode and effect analysis, and the validity and feasibility of the proposed method is verified by a case of liquid crystal display.

Key words: failure mode and effect analysis, grey relation degree, prospect theory, PROMETHEE

摘要： 针对考虑群体评价一致性和专家心理感知行为影响的失效模式及影响分析风险评估问题,提出了基于前景理论和偏好序结构排序法(PROMETHEE)的风险评估方法。首先,专家团队采用语言变量表征风险因子评价信息,利用直觉模糊熵确定风险因子客观权重;其次,采用灰关联度刻画专家评价与群体评价的一致性,以最大化关联度和极大熵准则构建专家权重优化模型;然后,集成风险因子和专家的主客观权重,获得风险因子及专家的综合权重;再次,运用直觉模糊加权平均算子集结专家评价信息,进而借助前景理论构建反应专家心理感知的前景矩阵;最后,基于PROMETHEE方法确定失效模式风险排序,并利用液晶显示器的案例验证了所提方法的有效性和可行性。

关键词: 失效模式及影响分析, 灰关联度, 前景理论, PROMETHEE

ZHU Jiang-hong, LI Yan-lai, WANG Rui. Risk Assessment of FMEA Based on Prospect Theory and PROMETHEE[J]. Operations Research and Management Science, 2018, 27(12): 147-157.

朱江洪,李延来,王睿. 基于前景理论与PROMETHEE的FMEA风险评估[J]. 运筹与管理, 2018, 27(12): 147-157.

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