Abstract: This study draws credit expansion as the cause of economic fluctuations, and explains the cyclical fluctuations of the Chinese economy from 2001 to 2015 through the distortion effect of the production structure in the economy. The WIOD and WIND databases are used to construct an econometric model to test the proposed hypotheses. The results show that credit expansion leads to an unsustainable extension of the entire production structure and is shortened during the recession; in terms of output fluctuations, both the high and low stages are larger than the intermediate stage; but in terms of price indices, the volatility increases in turn as the stage increases. Overall, the results validate the applicability of the framework to explain China's economic fluctuation.

Key words: austrian business cycle theory, credit expansion, production structure, stages of production

摘要： 本研究以信贷扩张作为经济波动的起因,通过经济体中生产结构的扭曲效应,解释2001~2015年中国经济的周期波动。使用WIOD和WIND数据库构建计量模型对所提假设进行实证检验。结果表明信贷扩张导致整个生产结构先出现不可持续的延长,并在衰退阶段缩短;就产出波动而言,高级和低级阶段都相对于中间阶段更大;但在价格指数方面,从低级阶段、中间阶段到高级阶段,波动性依次增强。总体来看,结果验证了该框架解释中国经济周期波动的适用性。

关键词: 奥地利学派商业周期理论, 信贷扩张, 生产结构, 生产阶段