Abstract: Based on the constructed digital economy development level evaluation index system and panel data of 30 provinces and cities across the country (except Tibet, Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan) from 2010 to 2018, the temporal and spatial characteristics, dynamic evolution and regional differences of China's digital economy development level are explored. The study fInds that the level of digital economy development in the country and the three major regions has shown a steady upward trend, accompanied by obvious spatial correlation, spatial agglomeration and regional differences. Compared with the central and western regions, the eastern region is more different and has a greater state of speed change. The early digital foundation of the region, the first-order lag in economic development, and government investment in science and technology will all promote the development of the regional digital economy. The level of opening up will inhibit the development of the digital economy, and the impact of regional scale on the digital economy is nonlinear. Different linear influencing factors have different influences on the development level of the digital economy in different regions.

Key words: digital economy, time and space evolution, Moran's I index, Theil index, speed incentive, regional differences

摘要： 基于构建的数字经济发展水平评价指标体系与2010~2018年全国30个省市(除西藏、港澳台)的面板数据,对中国数字经济发展水平的时空特征、动态演化与区域差异原因进行探究。研究发现:全国及三大区域的数字经济发展水平均呈现稳步上升态势,并伴有明显的空间相关性、空间集聚性和区域差异性,且东部相较于中西部区域内差异更大。数字经济发展速度动态演化显示,整体上中国各省市数字化发展水平变化速度状态表现为上升趋势,相较于中西部,东部拥有更大的速度变化状态。地区前期数字化基础、经济发展的一阶滞后、政府科技投入均会促进区域数字经济的发展,对外开放水平会抑制数字经济发展,地区规模对数字经济的影响表现为非线性。此外,不同线性影响因素在不同区域内对数字经济发展水平具有不同的影响力。

关键词: 数字经济, 时空演化, Moran's I指数, 泰尔指数, 速度激励, 区域差异