Abstract: Coal is the main source of energy for many countries and regions, the power base of social development, and also one of the world's most important non-renewable energy sources. At present, China is still one of the world's largest coal importers. The importance of coal energy is even more evident as it accounts for a relatively high proportion of the energy consumed in our electricity and industrial production. However, while having a high importance, the dangerous nature of coal mining and the complexity of the mining process cannot be ignored. Coal production work has now become one of the most dangerous jobs in China, and the whole production process is often accompanied by various hazardous accidents. Among them, gas explosion accidents with its high mortality rate and strong destructive nature cause damage to social property and posed a great challenge to environmental protection. So there is an urgent need for a practical and effective coal mine gas explosion risk evaluation model mine to overcome the above problems. This study has high research value and significance in the field of management science and coal mine safety engineering.
Under the vigorous popularization of intelligent mine, the subordinate enterprises of China's coal industry have basically completed the high integration of automation and information technology. In order to further improve the safety management intelligence, this study proposes a risk evaluation model of coal mine gas explosion based on game theory partial order set. This fusion model, which includes techniques such as nonlinear science, multidimensional data fusion and data analysis, can contribute to the development of the field of coal mine safety governance.
Modeling begins with the classification of risk security levels based on grading guidelines. Firstly, a comprehensive analysis of the factors affecting the risk of gas explosion is conducted, and finally 14 indicators (recorded as y₁-y₁₄), such as ventilation facilities and equipment, gas outflow, air supply and demand ratio, safety education and training, are selected to form the indicator set of the model. Then, considering the imbalance between subjectivity and objectivity of indicator assignment, the game assignment method is used to combine the weights obtained by entropy method and hierarchical analysis method to obtain the best balance weights. Finally, the game theoretical partial order set evaluation model with weight information is obtained by combining with partial order set theory.
The model is applied to evaluate the risk level of 20 gas mines with similar hazard characteristics from Yitai Group in Inner Mongolia as the evaluation samples (denoted as A1-A20), and the results show that the Hasse diagram of the model evaluation results is more accurate. In order to further verify the robustness of the game theoretic partial order set model, this study is compared and analyzed with the other two models for several times, and the results show that the weights of the indicators in the partial order set model are in equilibrium after optimization by the ω game theory method to ensure the transformation of the partial order relationship. The conversion of partial order relationship can give full play to the feature that the evaluation results are robust if the weight order of indicators is fixed in the partial order set evaluation model, which can overcome the shortage of traditional evaluation methods to a certain extent. The proposed game theory partial order set model provides a new idea for the evaluation of coal mine gas explosion risk.
In the course of the follow-up study, we will expand the index set and data set in order to obtain a more scientific evaluation of the over.

Key words: risk evaluation, gas explosion, partial order set, game theory, hasse diagram

摘要： 准确评价煤矿瓦斯爆炸风险是预防与控制瓦斯爆炸事故的重要前提。基于偏序集理论,提出瓦斯爆炸风险的博弈论偏序集评价模型。依据分级准则划分风险安全等级,对影响瓦斯爆炸风险因素进行综合分析,最终选取通风设施设备、瓦斯涌出量、风量供需比、安全教育与培训等14项指标(记为y₁-y₁₄)构成模型的指标集合并进行博弈论优化。运用该模型对20个矿井样本(记为A1-A20)进行风险等级评价,结果表明:模型评价结果的Hasse图表达较为准确。偏序集模型中的各指标权重ω经博弈论法优化后均处于平衡状态,保证了偏序关系的转化,充分发挥出偏序集评价模型中若指标权重次序固定评价结果稳健这一特性。为煤矿瓦斯爆炸风险的评价提供了一种新思路。

关键词: 风险评价, 瓦斯爆炸, 偏序集, 博弈论法, Hasse图