Abstract: For years of reform and opening up, China has made remarkable achievements in economic development. However, for a long time, the extensive economic growth mode has led to environmental degradation, resource depletion, unbalanced industrial structure, low development efficiency and insufficient technological innovation, and other governance problems, which have seriously hindered the development of green economy and become an important constraint on the realization of China’s sustainable development goals. As the carrier of the real economy, the development mode of “pollution first and then treatment” has been unable to continue for a long time, and the green transformation of industry has become the key to making a change. As an important part of the green financial system, green credit has become the core driving force to promote the green transformation of industry by guiding the flow of funds through the implementation of differentiated credit rationing strategies and limiting the development of “high pollution and high energy consumption” industries. This paper discusses the role and value of green credit in promoting industrial green development from the perspective of spatial spillover, which helps to provide theoretical and practical support for industrial green transformation. Therefore, it is particularly important to study whether green credit can play a given role and what are the influencing factors.
Guided by practical problems, this paper clarifies the impact mechanism of green credit on industrial green development on the basis of considering the spatial spillover effect and threshold effect. First, on the basis of consulting and sorting out relevant literature and policy reports, a more complete industrial green development measurement system has been built from a total of 18 indicators from five dimensions: structural optimization, energy conservation and emission reduction, pollution control, innovation and development, and economic growth, providing effective academic support for green credit to help industrial green transformation. Second, it clarifies the spatial spillover and threshold effects of green credit on the industrial green development from a non-linear perspective. With the in-depth development of regional integration in China, the correlation between regions also increases. The impact of spillover effects on local development is becoming more and more significant. Therefore, in order to explore the nonlinear driving effect of green credit on the industrial green development, taking the industrial green development as the research object, it uses the spatial Durbin model and threshold model to study the spatial spillover effect and nonlinear effect of green credit, and analyzes the impact of green credit on the industrial green development in many aspects.
The main conclusions of this paper are as follows: firstly, on the whole, the development of green credit in China has strongly promoted the green development of industry in the region, and has a significant spatial spillover effect. Secondly, according to the results of the threshold model, there is a double threshold effect of green credit on industrial green development based on the level of economic development, and the promotion effect of green credit on the industrial green development is a marginal increasing nonlinear law. When green credit itself is used as the threshold variable, it is found that there is a significant threshold effect, and the effect of green credit on the industrial green development has an optimal interval, that is, theeffect will be the most significant when it is within the threshold range. Finally, based on the above analysis results, policy suggestions are put forward, including improving the regional coordination mechanism, narrowing the regional gap, improving the construction of the green financial system, and increasing government subsidies and regulation and control.

Key words: green credit, industrial green development, spatial Dubin model, threshold effect

摘要： 绿色信贷作为支持经济绿色低碳发展的有力抓手,在引导绿色投资流向,推动工业绿色转型方面作用不容忽视。本文基于中国30个省的省际面板数据,在工业绿色发展测度指标体系构建的基础上,探究了绿色信贷对工业绿色发展的空间溢出效应和门槛特征。研究发现:绿色信贷不仅能促进本地区工业绿色发展水平的提高,而且具有显著的空间溢出效应。当以经济发展水平作为门槛时,绿色信贷产生的作用效果存在边际递增的的双重门槛特征;以绿色信贷为门槛时,绿色信贷存在最优的作用区间。本文研究为更好的发挥绿色信贷对工业发展模式转变的支撑作用提供了决策支持。

关键词: 绿色信贷, 工业绿色发展, 空间杜宾模型, 门槛效应