Abstract: Because of uncertainties in market, there are several uncertain factors in inventory impawn financing and delayed payments, such as cash discount rate, inventory impawn financing rate, and lost sale penalty cost. These uncertain factors have important impacts on enterprise profits. As a consequence, it is difficult for an enterprise to decide which business to select. To solve this problem, enterprise profit models under the methods of inventory impawn financing and delayed payments are derived first. Then the decision model of business selection is proposed based on evidence theory. In this model, profit difference between inventory impawn financing and delayed payments is taken as the object function. Based on evidence reasoning, lower and upper probability distributions of profit difference are constructed with belief and plausibility functions, with which the decision-making basis for the two businesses is proposed. The simulation results show that, inventory impawn financing is not always better than delayed paymentsto an enterprise demanding for funds. In a special market, best selection within these two businesses should be made based on the calculation results of proposed decision model.

Key words: logistics financing, decision-making, delayed payments, inventory impawn financing, evidence theory

摘要： 由于市场的不确定性,延期支付货款和存货质押融资中存在诸多不确定因素,使得资金需求企业难以做出有效的选择。针对此问题,从资金需求企业利润最大化的角度出发,首先分别给出了延期支付和存货质押两种业务下的企业利润模型,进而基于D-S理论建立了两种业务的决策模型。该模型以存货质押和延期支付业务下企业利润差额为目标函数,根据证据推理,以信任函数和似然函数构造出利润差额的上下界概率分布,并据此给出两种业务的决策依据。算例分析表明,对资金需求企业来说,存货质押融资业务并不一定优于延期支付,在特定的市场环境下,需要利用本文提出的模型进行定量计算,从而做出最优的选择。

关键词: 物流金融, 决策, 延期支付, 存货质押, D-S理论