Abstract: Air traffic safety management has focused on the risk of single type of threat and error, ignoring the interaction of threats and errors. It's difficult to embody the correlation of different types of risk. Based on fuzzy measure, air traffic risk decision making model is proposed, where Choquet integral serves as the risk function on the coalitions formed by different types of threats and errors. On the basis of risk function, Shapley value distributes the risk value to each type of threat and error. Through applying this risk decision model, we have an example to illustrate how interaction index modifies the risk value, which is more practical for air traffic operation.

Key words: words: fuzzy measure, choquet integral, shapley value, threat and error management, risk analysis

摘要： 以往民航空管安全管理中,大多对单一类型威胁或差错进行评估以管理风险,忽略了威胁与差错之间的交互作用,难以准确反映出不同类型风险之间的相关性。本文提出了基于不确定测度的空管运行风险决策模型,即将不确定积分Choquet积分作为风险函数,在由威胁和差错构成的集合的概念下,由Shapley值作为校正函数,重新评估各个威胁和差错的风险值。本文通过应用上述风险决策模型,结合案例得出了考虑交互作用的空管运行修正风险值,该风险值与单一风险值相比更贴近空管运行实际情况,因而对风险决策更具指导意义。

关键词: 不确定测度, Choquet积分, Shapley值, 威胁和差错管理, 风险分析