Abstract: From the perspective of cost economy, this paper studies and tries to find out an optimal match-up between the proactive and reactive scheduling methods. A cost-based model is constructed based on the time buffer inserted, and a trade-off index SR is provided to measure the cost sharing of the two scheduling methods in the process of dealing with uncertainties. Considering the NP-hardness of the problem, a random two-point heuristic algorithm based on hybrid variable neighborhood search and tabu search is designed to solve the problem. The results show that the cost caused by improving robustness will exceed the benefit brought by decreasing the adjustment frequency; According to the contractor's sensitivity to cost, the workload of proactive scheduling and reactive scheduling in dealing with uncertainty factors changes along with the variation of the trade-off ratio, gradually from proactive scheduling dominant transforming to reactive scheduling dominant. Finally, valuable management implications are given from the perspective of project management, helping managers choose the most appropriate methods for uncertain environment.

Key words: stochastic environment, proactive scheduling, reactive scheduling, trade-off optimization, hybrid variable neighbourhood and tabu search

摘要： 针对随机环境下项目前摄性调度与反应性调度在应对不确定因素过程中起到的不同作用,从成本经济角度出发,研究了如何通过两种调度方法的权衡实现项目计划与执行的最优配合。在此基础上构建了基于成本的前摄反应调度权衡模型,通过对鲁棒性成本与调整成本进行量化分析,实现两种调度方案的最佳权衡。考虑到问题的NP难属性,设计了基于混合变邻域禁忌搜索的随机两点启发式算法,并通过大规模算例测试验证了算法的有效性。结果表明,根据承包商对成本的敏感度,前摄性调度与反应性调度在应对不确定性因素干扰中承担的工作量会随着成本权衡比的变化而发生改变,逐渐从前摄性方法为主过渡到以反应性方法为主。最后,从项目管理角度给出了有价值的管理启示。

关键词: 随机环境, 前摄性调度, 反应性调度, 权衡优化, 混合变邻域禁忌搜索