Abstract: Aimed at solving the inconsistent evaluation results caused by multiple evaluators in group evaluation,this paper proposes a group evaluation method by considering evaluators’ risks. This method abandons evaluators’ risk attitudes investigated in previous studies and does not require to gather the evaluation information of evaluators. This method fully considers the risk factors of evaluators and uses the solver to get the final group evaluation results which aims to investigate the method of group evaluation from the theoretical level. Firstly,the evaluation situation and the research hypotheses are developed and the definition of evaluators’ risks is given. Secondly,the weights and risks of evaluators in this evaluation activity can be got respectively based on the experience information of evaluators and the information in the process of evaluation. According to the principle that individual evaluation results and ideal results are within minimum deviation,a nonlinear programming model is used to calculate the final evaluation results. Finally,a numerical example is given to illustrate the effectiveness of this method.

Key words: comprehensive evaluation, group evaluation, the risks of evaluators, solver, nonlinear programming model

摘要： 针对群体评价中多个评价者给出的评价结果非一致性问题,提出了一种考虑评价者风险的群体评价方法,该方法摒弃了以往对评价者风险态度的研究,且不需要集结评价者的评价信息,而是综合考虑评价者的风险因素,利用规划求解得出最终的评价结果,旨在从理论层面上探讨群体评价的方法。首先设定评价情景,提出研究假设并给出评价者风险的定义;然后根据评价者的经验信息和评价过程中的信息确定评价者的权重和此次评价中评价者的风险;根据个体评价结果与理想评价结果偏差最小的原理,设计非线性规划模型求解最终的评价结果。最后,用一个算例检验了方法的有效性。

关键词: 综合评价, 群体评价, 评价者风险, 规划求解, 非线性规划模型