Abstract: The study on evolution of the port system can reveal the development law of the ports along Maritime Silk Road. It also can provide the decision support for our country’s relevant enterprises on overseas investment, and theory basis for the implement of our strategy “Maritime Silk Road”. In this paper, we use the theory of ecological and the data of Southeast Asia’s ports to study the evolution of the port system. The study discovers that the port scale evolution trend accords with the Logistics evolution, the growth rate peaks in 2008, and the port system along the Maritime Silk Road enters recession in 2013, and around 2030 the port system scale will reach limit. Then we establish the Lotka-Volterra and mutual relations’ models to study the evolution trend of Singapore port, port Klang, Tanjung Pelepas, Pulau Pinang and Johor. Last, we propose that our country needs to coordinate in cooperation with the port according to the study. When the relationship of the ports is predation, we should set up cooperative mechanism to ease their competition. When it is mutualism, what should we do is to fight for the coordination with both of them. Then it can achieve maximum benefits.

Key words: port system, maritime along silk road, evolution, logistics model, lotka-volterra model

摘要： 港口体系演化研究揭示21世纪海上丝绸之路沿线港口的发展规律,为我国相关企业海外港口投资提供决策支持,进而为我国“海上丝绸之路”战略的具体实施提供理论依据。本文利用生态种群演化相关理论,选取东南亚港口为数据样本来研究港口体系演化过程,研究发现港口规模演化趋势符合Logistics演化规律,2008年时增长速度达到峰值,2013年海上丝绸之路沿线港口体系进入衰退期,2030年左右港口体系规模将达到极限值;建立双种群增长的Lotka-Volterra模型和多种群增长模型研究新加坡港、巴生港、柔佛、槟城、丹戎帕拉帕斯的相互关系和演化趋势,提出我国在与这些港口合作时需要依据这种关系和演化趋势去统筹协调,才能达到效益最大化。

关键词: 海丝沿线港口体系, 种群演化, Logistics模型, Lotka-Volterra模型