Abstract: For influencing factors of user changing their mobile phones there are objective factors and subjective factors. Based on users’ information data of Xi’an Branch of China Mobile Company, according to the actual consumption of users and related nonlinear multiple regression theory, we explore the objective factors of users changing their mobile phones and their effects. The study finds that: the frequent number of total calls, major average flow and small mobile phone screen (their mobile phone) can promote users to change their mobile phones; the driving force of users changing their mobile phones is not the difference between their economic ability, but that between the screen sizes of their mobile phone; the difference between users’ age influence on whether users change their mobile phones can be ignored; the effect identity between urban and rural areas is remarkable, but the effect of users’ brand is not significant. In addition, as a result of the truth tied to sales, finally from manufacturers and operators, according to the above effect, we put forward some related suggestions to promote the competitiveness of mobile phone manufacturers and operators.

Key words: mobile Users, hierarchical structure, objective factors, effects

摘要： 影响用户换手机的因素有客观因素和主观因素,本研究基于中国移动西安分公司的用户信息数据,根据用户的实际消费和相关非线性多元回归理论,探索了影响用户换手机的客观因素及其效应。研究发现:较长的总通话次数、较大的平均流量和较小的手机屏幕(在用手机)等因素能促进用户换手机;换手机的主要驱动力不是经济能力的差异而是在用手机的屏幕大小;用户的年龄差异对是否换手机的影响可以忽略;城乡标识对是否换手机的影响显著,用户品牌的影响不显著。另外,手机捆绑销售方式的存在,本研究最后站在制造商和运营商的角度,根据以上影响效果给出了提高手机制造商和运营商竞争力的相关建议。

关键词: 手机用户, 层次结构, 客观因素, 效应