关键词: 应急管理, 两阶段决策, 不确定情景, 后悔理论, 台风灾害, 区间数

Abstract: With respect to the emergency decision-making problem for typhoon disaster with uncertain scenario predictions, a two-stage decision-making method which considers both the prevention and emergency response actions is proposed. Firstly, the risk aversion behavior of decision makers is considered, and the most desirable emergency response action concerning each prevention action and each scenario is determined by calculating the utility of each emergency response action. Secondly, the regret aversion behavior of decision makers is considered, and the regret-delight values for pairwise comparison of prevention actions are calculated. Then, the interval probability of uncertain scenarios is converted to point probability by maximum entropy method. Further, the comprehensive regret-delight value and the ranking value of each prevention action are calculated. Moreover, the most desirable prevention action of the first stage and the emergency response action corresponding to each disaster scenario of the second stage can be determined. Finally, the feasibility and effectiveness of the method are demonstrated by a numerical example and comparative analysis.

Key words: emergency management, two-stage decision making, uncertain scenario, regret theory, typhoon disaster, interval number