关键词: 应急管理, 有限理性, P中值选址, 整数非线性规划, 启发式算法

Abstract: The emergency management department should decide which emergency shelters would be opened when emergency events occur. Unlike other facility location problems, residents with bounded rationality could choose whether to take refuge or not and which open shelter to go. In order to minimize the number of people who are not being served, it is important to consider the bounded rationality of the residents. To this end, a utility function is constructed based on the competition location theory considering the factors such as the refuge distance and the attraction of shelters. Under this circumstance, the multinomial logit model is used to describe the bounded rational choice behavior of residents, and an emergency shelter location model is established based on the bounded rational choice. Another two location models are proposed based on utility optimal choice and system optimal principle respectively to verify the reasonability of the bounded rational choice model. To solve the problems efficiently, two heuristic algorithms, simulated annealing algorithm and genetic algorithm are designed based on the characteristics of the model. The numerical results verify the feasibility and practicability of the model and algorithms, and show that residents’ rational degree, the number of open shelters and the budget have a significant impact on the emergency shelter location decisions.

Key words: emergency management, bounded rationality, P-median location, integer nonlinear programming, heuristic algorithm