关键词: 数字化转型, 企业综合风险, 风险集成, 风险减缓, 机器学习

Abstract: The external environment is currently characterized by heightened uncertainty. Global economic and trade growth momentum has slowed. The development of enterprises in China has been affected by many unpredictable factors both at home and abroad, and faces enormous risk challenges. Can digital transformation reduce enterprise risk? Existing research has primarily examined this from a single risk perspective, and has found that digital transformation can have a dual impact on enterprise risk. Considering that risks at different levels are not independent of each other, but influence and constrain each other, this paper breaks through the single risk research perspective and analyzes the mitigation mechanism of digital transformation on the integrated risk of enterprises from the perspective of risk portfolio.
First, this paper incorporates five types of key risks, including information risk, operational risk, financial risk, financial risk, and supply chain risk, into the enterprise risk portfolio system, applies multi-compartment principal component analysis to decompose, downgrade, and integrate them to reflect the integrated risk of the enterprise, studies the mitigation mechanism of digital transformation on the integrated risk of the enterprise, and finally obtains the following conclusions of the study: digital transformation reduces an organization’s integrated risk. A moderating effect analysis reveals that the integrated risk reduction effect of digital transformation is more significant for highly innovative firms, highly competitive industries, and firms without internal control deficiencies.Heterogeneity analysis shows that the digital transformation process in the service sector is ahead of the manufacturing sector, with a high degree of digital transformation and greater risk mitigation in the eastern part of China.
Second, based on the integrated risk, this paper introduces technology risk and human resource risk, constructs a new type of integrated risk, and studies the mitigation mechanism of digital transformation on the integrated risk of enterprises. The following research conclusions have been drawn: Although digital transformation can reduce the new integrated risks of enterprises, the fit between the two is poor. The linear correlations between digital transformation and various types of individual risks are characterized by heterogeneity. Through the introduction of machine learning models, it is found that there is a certain nonlinear relationship between digital transformation and new types of integrated risks, and the machine learning integrated model based on the stacking method has the best fitting effect.
Finally, the following management insights are drawn: In the current environment of increased uncertainty and risk, companies should integrate all types of risk into a whole and implement risk portfolio management so that risk information can truly play a decision-support role. Companies need to capitalize on the opportunities for digital transformation by leveraging cohort effects and “learning by doing” approaches to innovation investments and changes in innovation activities. Enterprises in the industrial chain and supply chain should collaborate on the pace of digital transformation, and build a joint risk control mechanism.

Key words: digital transformation, integrated enterprise risk, risk integration, risk mitigation, machine learning