关键词: 汇率风险, 风险态度, 跨国供应链, 碳减排, 收益共享契约

Abstract: Low-carbon consumption has increasingly become a consensus among consumers. 64% of consumers are willing to spend more money in supporting low-carbon environmental protection, and the demand for low-carbon products is growing at a high speed. Compared with pure domestic distribution, providing low-carbon products on a global scale faces a more complex environment. On the one hand, although implementing carbon emission reduction can meet consumers’ demand for low-carbon products, the increased cost of emission reduction will affect enterprises’ enthusiasm for carbon emission reduction. On the other hand, exchange rate fluctuations will lead to the uncertainty of enterprises’ exchange gains, which in turn will affect the production and export of low-carbon products. For example, Heng Tai Lighting, which focuses on green environmental protection, benefited from the exchange gains generated by the depreciation of the RMB exchange rate in 2022 and continuously carried out technological upgrades and production process optimizations. The textile industry maintains its market share by producing environmentally friendly products that meet consumers’ needs, thus playing a role in hedging against the exchange rate risks brought about by the depreciation of the US dollar. In addition, most decision-makers are not completely rational when facing the business risks brought about by the uncertainty of exchange rate fluctuations. Since 2020, under the two-way fluctuations of the significant appreciation and subsequent decline of the RMB exchange rate, import and export multinational enterprises have had mixed feelings, making multinational traders’ attitude towards risk aversion more intense, thereby affecting their business decision-making behaviors. Therefore, based on the fact of the uncertainty of exchange rate fluctuations, this study takes into account decision-makers’ risk aversion behaviors and studies the impact of different exchange rate settlement methods on enterprises producing and trading low-carbon products. Subsequently, by introducing a revenue-sharing contract, it explores whether cooperative emission reduction among enterprises located in different countries can improve the efficiency of emission reduction and whether it can mitigate the impact of exchange rate fluctuations on transnational supply chains, providing a reference for the current carbon emission reduction requirements and exchange rate fluctuation risks faced by transnational supply chains.
Based on the contradictions among the cost of carbon emission reduction, the risk of exchange rate fluctuations, and the promotion of market demand, this paper constructs two-level transnational supply chain models in the situations of settlement in the currency of the country where the retailer or the manufacturer is located, respectively. It explores the impact of different exchange rate settlement methods on the emission reduction decisions of transnational supply chains and introduces a revenue-sharing contract to achieve Pareto improvement among supply chain members. Through the backward induction method, the sub-game equilibrium results in the two situations of exchange rate settlement before and after the introduction of the revenue-sharing contract being obtained, and the impacts of parameters such as exchange rate risk and the risk aversion coefficient on the equilibrium results are further analyzed. Finally, through numerical analysis, we further explore the impacts of various parameters on the emission reduction amount per unit product and the expected utilities of both parties in the two situations of exchange rate settlement.
The research shows that: (1)The impact caused by exchange rate fluctuations is transmitted among supply chain members. Regardless of who bears the exchange rate risk, exchange rate fluctuations and risk aversion behaviors will reduce the product emission reduction amount, as well as the expected utilities of the manufacturer and the retailer. However, the revenue-sharing contract can offset part of the negative impacts of exchange rate risks on the supply chain. (2)Having the other party bear the exchange rate risk is not necessarily more advantageous than bearing the exchange rate risk oneself. When multinational enterprises are more averse to risks, settlement in the currency of their own country is instead more beneficial. (3)An increase in consumers’ low-carbon preferences will encourage upstream manufacturers to increase the emission reduction amount per unit product, thus making the profits of both upstream and downstream enterprises show an upward trend. (4)When settled in the currency of the manufacturer’s country, revenue sharing contracts can achieve Pareto improvements for supply chain members, whereas when settled in the currency of the retailer’s country, revenue sharing contracts can only achieve Pareto improvements if consumer low-carbon preferences are greater.

Key words: exchange rate risk, risk attitude, multinational supply chain, carbon emission reduction, revenue-sharing contract