关键词: 分组群体, 极端损失, 元胞自动机, 主观概率, 采样偏差

Abstract: In order to study the formation and evolution of the subjective probability cumulative deviation of grouped population under the extreme loss of individual death, the model of subjective probability cellular automata under different grouping modes is constructed and the Netlogo simulation platform is used for experiments.Then, On the basis of the graph analysis of the simulation results, the regression analysis and case verification analysis of the experimental data are further carried out. The research results show that the evolution of subjective probability of a group generally goes through the process from drastic change to stabilization; Group operation can improve safety redundancy, but this is not good for individual accident experience accumulation; The individual death will lead to the subjective probability underestimation and differentiation of groups, but grouping measures can reduce this effect; The reduction of objective accident probability will increase the difference of subjective probability within the group but grouping measures can reduce this effect; there is a complementary effect between accident rate and mortality and grouping measures have a two-way regulating effect on them; The increase of population size is helpful to reduce subjective probability deviation and difference.

Key words: grouped population, extreme loss, cellular automata, subjective probability, sampling bias