关键词: 数字金融, 投资者, 平台, 余额宝, 演化博弈, 系统动力学

Abstract: In the context of a dynamic and complex digital economy, the healthy development of digital finance, as the blood of the digital economy, is very important to the whole economic system. Digital finance has gradually penetrated every field of social economy, changed people’s mode of production, lifestyle, and consumption behavior, and produced new forms of financial business and innovative service methods. These digital financial innovations have become the source of the development of the digital financial industry, and their evolutionary path and results also affect the development process and direction of the entire financial industry. However, investment behavior will occur only when investors realize that digital financial innovation can bring wealth appreciation and improve financial efficiency. Therefore, investors’ perception of digital financial innovation is the main driving force for digital financial innovation. Based on the above background, from the perspective of investors’ perceived value, this paper uses the method of the evolutionary game to build an evolutionary game model composed of digital financial platforms and investors and analyzes the evolutionary path and evolution law of digital financial platform’s innovation behavior and investors’ investment behavior.
Firstly, considering the value perception of investors, this paper first adopts the method of the evolutionary game to construct an evolutionary game model composed of a digital financial platform group and an investor group. On this basis, the paper analyzes the evolutionary results, evolutionary paths, and evolutionary rules of the innovation behavior of digital financial platforms and investors’ investment behavior. Secondly, taking the quarterly panel data of Tianhong Yu’ebao Fund from 2014 to the third quarter of 2020 as samples, relevant variables are selected from the four aspects of scale share, platform innovation, investors’ financial literacy, and traditional finance to describe the evolution of Yu’ebao market and its main influencing factors. Thirdly, the system dynamics model of Yu’ebao market evolution is constructed, and the conclusions of the model are verified through data analysis to explore the impact of investors’ value perception and other factors on digital financial innovation.
The results show that: First, there are five equilibrium points in the evolutionary game between investors and digital platforms, but only the equilibrium points E₁(0,0), E₂(1,0) and E₄(1,1) are evolutionary stable points under certain conditions. Under different conditions, the evolution path of the system from an unstable point to a stable point is different. Second, under the condition of meeting the stable point, no matter how the initial entry rate changes, the digital financial system always tends to evolve towards the stable point. Moreover, with an increase in the initial entry rate, the evolution speed of digital financial systems towards this point is accelerated. The higher the value perception coefficient of investors, the higher the probability of investors choosing “platform investment” and the more inclined digital financial platforms is to choose the “innovation” strategy. Third, under the influence of platform innovation and investors’ value perception, the net asset quantity of Yu’ebao market shows an evolutionary trend first rising and then declining. The possible evolutionary stability points in the evolutionary game have been reflected in the development of Yu’ebao market. Investors’ value perception has a positive impact on the benign evolution of Yu’ebao market. Therefore, to promote the development of digital finance, we should attach importance to the role of investors’ value perception. Investors should not only actively share their experience in financial products and services and give feedback to the platform about their opinions or suggestions, but also strengthen their financial knowledge, especially the accumulation of digital financial knowledge, and improve their cognitive ability of innovative products or services of digital financial platforms. Digital financial platforms should pay attention to the construction of their functions, improve their innovation ability, and maximize the launch of digital financial services and products that meet the needs of investors.

Key words: digital finance, investor, platform, Yu’ebao, evolutionary game, system dynamics