烟羽应急计划区公众撤离模式研究

doi:10.12005/orms.2020.0226

运筹与管理 ›› 2020, Vol. 29 ›› Issue (9): 43-52.DOI: 10.12005/orms.2020.0226

烟羽应急计划区公众撤离模式研究

亓文辉^1,2, 祁明亮^1,2

1. 中国科学院科技战略咨询研究院, 北京 100190;
2. 中国科学院大学公共政策与管理学院, 北京 100049

收稿日期:2018-12-15 出版日期:2020-09-25
通讯作者: 祁明亮(1974-), 男, 副研究员, 研究方向:应急管理、战略管理。
作者简介:亓文辉(1996-)男, 山东济南人, 硕士研究生, 研究方向:应急管理;

Study on Public Evacuation Mode of Emergency Planning Zone

QI Wen-hui^{1, 2}, QI Ming-liang^{1, 2}

1. Institutes of Science and Development, Chinese Academy of Science, Beijing 100190, China;
2. School of Public Policy and Management, University of Chinese Academy of Science, Beijing 100049, China

Received:2018-12-15 Online:2020-09-25

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 公众撤离是烟羽应急计划区应急响应状态下的重要安全措施。本文提出一种“政府组织撤离+政府指导下的自行撤离”的撤离模式, 并基于元胞传输理论, 以最小化撤离时间为目标, 建立了公众撤离模型, 规划车辆行驶路线。运用该模型, 分析撤离时间随政府组织撤离和居民自行撤离比例变化的规律, 并运用到两个案例中, 结果显示:“政府组织撤离+政府指导下的自行撤离”模式的撤离时间小于“政府组织撤离”模式的撤离时间, 而且政府组织撤离与自行撤离之间存在一个最佳的比例结构, 使撤离时间达到相对低的水平。关键词:烟羽应急计划区;公众撤离;元胞传输理论;模式研究;应急管理

关键词: 烟羽应急计划区, 公众撤离, 元胞传输理论, 模式研究, 应急管理

Abstract: Public evacuation is an important safety measure in the emergency response status of the Emergency Planning Zone. The model of “government organizing evacuation+self-evacuation under the guidance of the government” is proposed. Based on the theory of cell transmission, the paper establishes a public evacuation model with the goal of minimizing the evacuation time, and plans the vehicle travel route. This model is used to analyze the change law of the ratio of government organizing evacuation and self-evacuation. The results show: evacuation time of the “government organizing evacuation+self-evacuation under the guidance of the government” model is less than that of the “government organizing evacuation” model, and there is an optimal proportional structure between the government organizing evacuation and self-evacuation, which makes the total evacuation time reach a satisfactory level.

Key words: Emergency Planning Zone, public evacuation, cell transmission theory, model research, emergency management

中图分类号:

C931.1

亓文辉, 祁明亮. 烟羽应急计划区公众撤离模式研究[J]. 运筹与管理, 2020, 29(9): 43-52.

QI Wen-hui, QI Ming-liang. Study on Public Evacuation Mode of Emergency Planning Zone[J]. Operations Research and Management Science, 2020, 29(9): 43-52.

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烟羽应急计划区公众撤离模式研究

Study on Public Evacuation Mode of Emergency Planning Zone

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