Abstract: In order to deeply estimate the change speed development trend, combining with the existed research on the model of static evaluation、change speed state and change speed trend, from the perspective of information gathering and the way of incentive or punishment, we modify the change speed state and change speed trend model, and propose the dynamic comprehensive evaluation model. Then the samples of 30 provinces in china are used to make an empirical study. we find out the results of static evaluation and dynamic comprehensive evaluation on technological innovative ability of knowledge-intensive manufactures of the 30 Chinese provinces between the the year of 2005~2011. The results indicate: the high technology innovation ability of knowledge~intensive manufactures in the eastern developed provinces, is weak in the rising trend of change rate; the low technology innovation ability in central and western provinces, is outstanding in the rising trend of change rate in the majority of provinces, and higher than eastern provinces in rising amplitude.

Key words: technology economy and management, dynamic comprehensive evaluation, catastrophe series, change speed characteristics, knowledge-intensive manufactures

摘要： 为了进一步测度评价对象整体的变化速度发展态势,结合已有关于评价对象静态评价模型、变化速度状态和趋势测量模型的研究,以信息集结视角和“激励与惩罚”手段,运用变化速度趋势对变化速度状态进行修正,构建了融合变化速度状态和趋势等变化速度特征的变化速度动态综合评价模型。并以我国30个省区作为样本进行实证研究,得出各省区2005年~2011年间知识密集型制造业技术创新能力截面静态和变化速度动态综合评价结果,结果表明:知识密集型制造业技术创新能力较高的东部发达省份,其变化速度上升趋势微弱,甚至不少省份呈现递减状态;而知识密集型制造业技术创新能力较低的中西部省份,多数地区变化速度上升趋势显著,且上升趋势幅度高于多数东部省区。

关键词: 技术经济及管理, 动态综合评价, 突变级数, 变化速度特征, 知识密集型制造业