Table of Content

12 February 2015, Volume 24 Issue 1

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Theory Analysis and Methodology Study

Dynamic Supply Chain Supernetwork Equilibrium Model Based on Risk Management

MA Jun, DONG Qing, YANG De-Li

2015, 24(1):  1-9.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2015.0001

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The research on supply chain network equilibrium model based on risk management helps the firms in supply chain network optimize their risk management, reduce risk loss and promote the competitive advantage of supply chain network under risk management. First of all, this paper develops a three-layer supply chain network equilibrium model by using probability of risk occurrence and risk loss function to express the characteristics of risk management in supply chain network. This model includes three types of nodes: products manufacturers, products retailers and demand markets. Manufacturers optimize their individual profits based on risk loss, cost and revenue. Then, evolutional variational inequalities are used to express the equilibrium solution of dynamic supply chain supernetwork based on risk management. The projected dynamic system is utilized to solve the evolutional variational inequalities, and a numerical example is used to prove this model is reliable and reasonable. Other manufacturers’ optimized decision making is described when one manufacturer selects a nonoptimized decision. The projected dynamic system is used to illustrate the process of a firm approaching the optimized solution. Sensitivity analysis is compared in this example.

Supply Chain Scheduling Optimization in Service Mass Customization

YAO Jian-ming

2015, 24(1):  10-18.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2015.0002

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In order to improve the operation flexibility of the supply chain system in service mass customization(SMC)and give a stronger response to the diverse needs of customer, based on the detailed analysis of the service customization characters, the research on service stages and the discussion on service mass effect, this paper points out that the supply chain scheduling optimization in SMC is a typical stochastic demand and stochastic resource-constrained multi-objective dynamic optimization problem. Then, the paper analyzes the optimization objects and restriction conditions and set up a complete, stochastic, multi-objective and dynamic optimization mathematics model. Based on the operation character of SMC, this paper improves the ant algorithm to solve the scheduling problem. Finally, the feasibility, validity and applicability of the model and the algorithm are verified by a practice case.

Study on Coordination Mechanisms and Differential Pricing of Supply Chain in Low Carbon Environment

XU Chun-qiu, ZHAO Dao-zhi, YUAN Bai-yun

2015, 24(1):  19-26.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2015.0003

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Differential pricing and supply chain coordination problems of supply chain system composed of two manufacturers and one retailer are studied. Through solving the models, the optimal strategies of supply chain members and the feasible range of costs of low-carbon products are obtained. The results show that 1)in decentralized decision-making, the differential pricing strategy cannot achieve supply chain coordination, and 2)with the increase of costs of low carbon products, the profits of the low carbon manufacturer, the retailer and supply chain system decreases while the ordinary products manufacturer’s profits increase. Therefore, reducing costs of low-carbon products is the key to promoting low-carbon products. To cope with the problem of the efficiency loss of the supply chain by decentralized decision-making, the shapley value method is used and the contract coordination mechanism is proposed. Finally, the impact on optimal decisions and supply chain profits of the consumer price sensitivity and the costs of low-carbon products is analyzed by an example.

Study on Supply Chain Quality Control Model under Detection Level Limited and External-loss Sharing

JIANG Jin-de, LI Bang-yi, ZHOU Wei-jie, LIAO Bi-feng

2015, 24(1):  27-33.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2015.0004

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In the supply chain system whose quality of products is jointly determined by manufacturer’s production level and brand merchant’s detection level, we construct the quality controlling model under the environment that the brand merchant is limited to detection level and the manufacturer shares the ratio of external loss, and gives supply chain quality controlling game’s Nash equilibrium solution in the different parameters. Meanwhile, we characterize the mechanism of pure strategy and mixed strategy equilibrium, and analyze interactive coordination mechanism between mixed strategy equilibrium solution and the two parameters of brand merchant’s detection level and the manufacturer sharing external loss ratio. Then, we find out the influence factors of optimal detection probability in repeated game that the brand merchant takes the grim strategy.

Pricing and Coordination of Closed-Loop Supply Chain Considering Competition between Retailers under Stochastic Demand

CAO Xiao-gang, WEN Hui

2015, 24(1):  34-39.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2015.0005

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This paper studies the pricing and coordination problem of closed-loop supply chain considering two retailers competition under stochastic demand. In this model, two retailers face different stochastic demand respectively, and their own recycled quantity are influenced by the other's recycling price. We analyze the pricing decision of the manufacturer and the two retailers under two circumstances of centralized decision and decentralized decision, and realize the coordination of the closed-loop supply chain using revenue and expense sharing contract.

Influenza Vaccine Supply Chain Coordination with Reordering Opportunities under Partial Information

HUANG Yuan-liang, YANG Chao, JIANG Sheng-jun

2015, 24(1):  40-47.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2015.0006

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A two level influenza vaccine supply chain consisting of a supplier with yield uncertainty and a social planner is studied, in which the social planner know partial information of random yield in decentralized noncontract scenario and know all the information of random yield in centralized control scenario. Owing to shortage in initial supply, the supplier will use the emergency mode of production, which the emergency production cost depends on random yield, to make up for the shortage. After analyzing the model of decentralized noncontract scenario and centralized control scenario, the shortage penalty and cost sharing contract, which can perfect coordinate the influenza vaccine supply chain, is proposed. Finally, the numerical examples and the sensitivity analysis of main parameters are provided.

Supply Chain Coordination Mechanism under Asymmetric Information and Disruptions

WU Zhong-he, CHEN Hong, WU Xiao-zhi, XIE Dong-chuan

2015, 24(1):  48-56.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2015.0007

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Focusing on a supply chain consisting of a supplier and a retailer, this paper studies how to coordinate the supply chain to respond to the disruption by supposing that the market demand of the product is the exponent function of the price under asymmetric information. Firstly, the coordination model under symmetrical information is given. Secondly, the coordination mechanisms of centralized supply chain and decentralized supply chain are researched. Thirdly, the optimal strategies under the fluctuation of the retailer cost distribution function caused by disruption are studied. The studies show that the optimal product plan, the optimal wholesale price, and the optimal retail price of the supply chain all have some certain robustness. When the expectation retail cost caused by disruption in a scope fluctuates, the three aspects keep unchanging. When the fluctuation of the expectation retail cost exceeds the scope, only the three aspects are adjusted so that the disruptions can be responded efficiently. Finally, through a numerical example some relational conclusions are verified.

Multi-period Closed-loop Supply Chain Network Equilibrium with Retailer Collection

ZHANG Gui-tao, HU Jin-song, SUN Hao, Dai Geng-xin

2015, 24(1):  57-66.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2015.0008

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In this paper, we study a multi-period closed-loop supply chain network equilibrium problem with the used products collected by retailers. Manufacturers sell the products to the consumers to meet the consumer market demand through retailers who are the collection activity undertakers of used products from consumer markets for the manufacturers remanufacturing. The adjacent planning periods are connected through products inventory and recycled used products. Using the theories of variational inequality and complementarity as a tool, we depict the equilibrium of manufacturing market, retail market and demand market respectively, and then we establish the closed-loop supply chain network equilibrium model. We employ the projection and contraction algorithm to solve the model presented. Taking a numerical example we analyze the influence of usable rate of used materials on network equilibrium states and the profit of supply chain members. When the usable rate of manufacturers increases gradually, the transaction amount of collected used products gradually increases, and the manufacturer’s profit first decreases and then increases, whereas retailer’s profit increases all along, and the total profit of supply chain increases all the time, the optimal decision variables is mainly affected by the collected amount constraint in the supply chain network.

A Feature Selection Method for Symbolic Interval Data

GUO Chong-hui, LIU Yong-chao

2015, 24(1):  67-74.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2015.0009

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Feature selection for symbolic interval data can reduce the dimension of data and extract the key features of data.In order to deal with the feature selection problem, a new method is proposed in this paper. Firstly, Hausdorff distance and Euclidean distance are utilized to measure the similarity between two interval numbers, and an optimization model, which aims to maximize the similarity between each sample and its class center, is established to estimate the feature weights for symbolic interval data. Next, based on the estimated feature selection weights, a classifier is constructed to evaluate the goodness of the weights. Finally, in order to verify the effectiveness of the proposed method, numerical experiments are done in artificially generated data sets and real data sets, respectively. The numerical experiments results show that the proposed algrithm can eliminate irrelevant features and identify features which are relevant to the class labels.

Inverse Optimal Value Method to Judge and Solve the More-for-less Paradox in Linear Programming

YANG De-quan, WANG Jia

2015, 24(1):  75-80.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2015.0010

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The right-hand side in linear programming is changed to solve the more-for-less paradox in current researches, while this paper points out and verifies that the reason why the paradox occurs is the unreasonable collocation of the technological coefficient matrix, the objective function coefficient and the right-hand side. First, the original-dual model is constructed to judge whether there exists the paradox. Then, through transforming the paradox problem into inverse optimal value problem, we construct two models to solve the paradox by changing the objective function coefficient and the technological coefficient matrix. Finally, the inverse optimal value method is provided to judge and solve the paradox. The advantages and economic significance of the method is described next. It is found that the method exhibits excellent face validity for a numerical example.

Exponential Penalty Function Method for Generalized Nash Equilibrium Problem

XU Ji-xiang, HOU Jian, TAN Yan-hua, FENG En-min

2015, 24(1):  81-88.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2015.0011

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This paper reformulates the generalized Nash equilibrium problem(GNEP)as a sequence of smoothing penalized NEPs by means of a partial penalization of the coupling constraints where the exponential penalty functions are used. We demonstrate that the limit point is a solution to the GNEP under the EMFCQ at a limit point of solutions to smoothing penalized NEPs. Further more, we formulate the Karush-Kuhn-Tucker(KKT)conditions for smoothing penalized NEPs into a system of nonsmooth equations, and then apply the semismooth Newton method with Armijo line search to solve the system. Finally, the numerical results show that our exponential penalty function method for GNEP is effective.

Slope One Model and Algorithm Based on Real-time User Behavior

CHEN Jie, PAN Yu, ZHANG Zhen-hai, PAN Fang

2015, 24(1):  89-92.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2015.0012

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Set in technology innovation platform, traditional collaborative filtering algorithm which has the problem of lagged recommendation and bad scalability is focused on. According to users’ real-time feedback, incremental update mechanism is introduced, which detaches fixed factor and incremental factor. When the score is changed, only incremental factor needs to be changed, which improves the scalability of the algorithm and reflects the users’ interest change more accurately. The experimental results indicate that the algorithm ensures accuracy of the recommendation and at the same time reduces the recommendation time.

Fuzzy Coalition Core with Choquet Integral Form

SUN Hong-xia

2015, 24(1):  93-99.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2015.0013

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In the framework of cooperative games with coalition structure, under the assumption that priori unions and players do not fully participate in the cooperation,the paper studies the problem of profit allocation. First, it gives the definition of cooperative games with fuzzy coalition structure and its associated definition. Then, fuzzy coalition core with Choquet integral form is defined. It proposes the relationship between the fuzzy coalition core with Choquet integral form and coalition core. It proves that fuzzy Owen value with Choquet integral form belongs to fuzzy coalition while the cooperative game is a strong convex coalition game. Finally, it gives an example to verify the allocation method.

Simulation for the KIBS Employee Behavior Decision-making in Demand-driven ——Based on the Perspective of Risk Appetite

JIANG Feng-zhen, HU bin

2015, 24(1):  100-107.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2015.0014

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With the development of economic globalization, more and more academics are focused on knowledge-intensive service(KIBS). In order to provide support management decisions for the KIBS ,this paper studies the evolutionary law of KIBS employees’ cooperation and conflict behavior when effected by the risk preference. We develop a behavior decision model of KIBS employees’ cooperation and conflict and employee incentive model, design utility function considering the risk neutral and risk aversion of employee. Organization should give different appropriate incentives for different risk preference employees, which can improve the staff’s cooperation. Then MATLAB2010 and EXCEL are used to implement this simulation analysis.The simulation results show that: 1)Different degrees of risk preference have different impacts on the decision-making behavior of employees;2)In order to improve the staff’s cooperation, organization should give appropriate incentives for employees; 3)When the task of the work load reaches a certain degree, organization should increase the staff’s fixed income rather than the degree of motivation.

Multi-granularity Linguistic Grey Target Decision Method in Categories for Preference

DAI Quan-chen, ZHU Jian-jun, GENG Rui

2015, 24(1):  108-115.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2015.0015

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This paper researches on multi-granularity linguistic decision method in categories for preference. On the base of multi-granularity linguistic distance transform function, it converts information into a standard language distance. According to incomplete information on attribute weights, it represents the comprehensive off-target distance in the scheme through the principle of grey target decision. Based on the idea of case study, it builds the attribute weights determination model by considering different categories for preference. An example shows that the method is effective.

Method of TODIM Decision Making for Incomplete Evaluations

JIANG Yan-ping, LIANG Xia, ZHANG Ye-di

2015, 24(1):  116-121.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2015.0016

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With respect to the multi-attribute decision making problem with incomplete evaluations, in which the reference dependence and loss aversion behaviors of the decision maker are considered, and a TODIM decision making approach is proposed. Firstly, considering the reference dependence and loss aversion behaviors of the decision maker, the dominance degree of each alternative over another one with respect to each attribute is computed. Then the dominance degree of each alternative over others can be obtained. Furthermore, by maximizing the overall dominance degree for all of the alternatives, an optimization model is established. In addition, the overall dominance degree for each alternative over all others, based on TODIM method, can be calculated to obtain the ranking result of alternatives. Finally, an example of venture investment is given to illustrate the feasibility and validity of the proposed method.

Method for Hybrid Multi-attribute Error-eliminating Decision-making under Risk

HUANG Hao-ran, YU Shou-hua, GUO Kai-zhong

2015, 24(1):  122-128.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2015.0017

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In multiple attributes decision making problem under risk, the attribute has compensation features of linear and nonlinear and the attribute values have formats of crisp numbers, interval numbers and linguistic information. Thus, a new decision making approach on the base of error-eliminating theory is proposed. Firstly, by the theory of error-eliminating, decision making attributes are divided into key attribute, important attribute and redundant attribute. Error function and maximum loss values are given on the basis of these three kinds of attributes and the type of attribute values. And then, minimum weight is given to key attribute, in this way the “one vote negation” function of key attribute is maintained and the important role of important attribute is highlight. At last, three methods of calculating the error-loss value are given, according to the different attitude about the error-loss, and the better strategy are prioritized and selected according to the expected error-loss values. Besides, the feasibility and effectiveness of this model have been proved by an example of new citizen information service project.

Study on Game and Learning between OEM and UOEM in Remanufacturing Market

SHI Kui-ran, SUN Yu-ling, WU Ge

2015, 24(1):  129-136.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2015.0018

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Motivated by the interests of remanufacturing, some un-original equipment manufacturers(UOEM)wish to enter the remanufacturing market. In order to investigate the entry game of UOEM, the replicator dynamics between original equipment manufacturers(OEM)and UOEM is formulated by evolutionary game theory. The results show that UOEM’s evolutionary direction is influenced by buyback prices and the cost of eliminating obstacles. In addition, the unique evolutionary stable strategy of the dynamics is that UOEM enter remanufacturing market and OEM give an implied consent. Furthermore, the players’ learning behavior is considered and another asymptotic attractor is given by perturbed replicator dynamics, which is not a sub-game perfect equilibrium. That is, when OEM with noise choose their strategy, the optimal strategy of the entrants is not to compete in the market.

Algorithms for an Online Parallel-batching Scheduling Problem with Unit Jobs

HU Dan, NONG Qing-Qin, FANG Qi-Zhi

2015, 24(1):  137-141.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2015.0019

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In this paper, we consider the problem of on-line scheduling a set of independent jobs J={J₁,…,J_n}on parallel-batching processing machines{M₁,…,M_m}. Each machine can handle up to B jobs as a batch simultaneously, and all the jobs in a batch start and complete at the same time. Once a batch is started, it cannot be stopped until its completion. We deal with the bounded case where the capacity of the machines is finite, i.e.,B<n. Each job J_j(1≤i≤n)becomes available at its release date r_j, which is unknown in advance, and its processing time p_j is a unit time. The problem involves assigning all the jobs to batches and machines and determining the sequence of batches so as to minimize the makespan (the maximum completion of the jobs). In this paper, two different best possible on-line algorithms, Unified Algorithm and Greedy Algorithm are designed.

Critical Path Identification in Repetitive Project Scheduling

ZHANG Li-hui, ZOU-xin, QI Jian-xun, MENG Xian-wei

2015, 24(1):  142-148.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2015.0020

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This paper proposes a new method to determine the critical path in repetitive construction project. Firstly, a method is presented to identify the potential critical points by constrained line with various constraints(time and distance constraints)in between activities. Then, the method for identifying the critical path and critical activities is proposed. In order to model large-scale projects, this paper further develops a numerical algorithm. Three types of critical activities are defined and analyzed. Compared with the existed methods, the proposed method is more convenient, correct, and better for optimization in project scheduling.

Consumer Preference, Market Entrance and Product Safety Level: a Two-stage Game Theoretical Analysis

DOU Yi-jie

2015, 24(1):  149-156.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2015.0021

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By considering multi-facet factors of consumer preference and product safety level, this paper establishes a duopoly two-stage game model with two players owning two different food safety strategies. The first stage is that duopoly producers choose product safety level. The second stage is that duopoly producers determine the products’ price. Further more, a numerical case is presented to discuss the effect of consumer preference and product safety market entrance level. Two results are finally acquired. Firstly, as consumer preference payment coefficient increases, the profit of the two producers with different food safety strategies would increase. Secondly, as the product safety market entrance level increases, the profit of the proactive producer focusing on positive food safety strategy would increase whilst the profit of the reactive producer centering upon low-price strategy would decrease. The managerial implications are also discussed. The result may provide viable suggestions for the decision making of producers and government.

Solving Hybrid Flow-shop Scheduling Problems by a Hybrid Discrete Artificial Bee Colony Algorithm

LI Jun-qing, PAN Quan-ke, WANG Fa-tao

2015, 24(1):  157-163.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2015.0022

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In this paper, we propose a hybrid discrete artificial bee colony(HDABC)algorithm for solving the hybrid flow-shop scheduling(HFS)problems. In the hybrid algorithm, each solution is coded by a job-permutation mechanism. Four neighborhood structures are designed. The employed bees are assigned to each solution in the population set, to complete the local search task with a detailed designed local search approach. Onlooker bees randomly fetch two updated solutions and select the better one as the current solution, and then complete a further exploitation process. The scouts help the algorithm jump out of the local best by applying three different approaches. Then, the proposed algorithm is tested on the 34 identical parallel machines HFS and two un-related parallel machines HFS problems. The performance comparisons with other efficient algorithms are provided. It is concluded that the proposed algorithm is competitive to the compared existing algorithms for the problem considered, in terms of searching quality, diversity, robustness and convergence ability.

Application Research

Analysis and Forecasting of Power Demand in Industrialization, Urbanization Process

CHAI Jian, LU Quan-ying , ZHANG Zhong-yu, WANG Shou-yang

2015, 24(1):  164-172.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2015.0023

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With the development of the industrialization,the urbanization process is accelerating.China’s power demand will continue to rise. The power supply is an important guarantee for the steady development of our economy. Therefore, a reasonable and accurate analysis of electricity demand and forecast is of important practical significance.This paper uses path analysis for screening the core of the electric power consumption demand based on this analysis of the current situation of China’s power demand. We analyze and forecast power demand based on single variables(ETS, ARIMA)and multivariate(scenario analysis)two dimensions based on model selection. The results show that GDP for every 1% increase in the electricity demand in 0.5249%; the level of industrialization for every 1% increase in power demand has increased by 2.2146%, the level of urbanization for every 1% increase in power demand has increased by 1.0076%. At the end of “Twelfth Five-Year Plan”, the consumption capacity of Chinese electric power reaches nearly 61425.96KW/h. By 2020,China electric power consumption will reach nearly 81410.10KW/h.

Evaluation of China Biomass Power Generation Industry Efficiency

YAN Qing-you, TAO Jie

2015, 24(1):  173-178.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2015.0024

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As a developing country with a large population, China has its deficiency in energy storage. Since the main energy in China is coal, the environmental problem in China has become very serious. Consequently, the biomass energy has become the focus of the energy development in the future, for the biomass energy is material and easy to restore. Since the progress of the biomass electricity, together with the diversity of the Chinese geography, the newly biomass electricity projects have displayed some new features, thus the assessment of this industry should take into account certain new factors, together with the new method, so as to get the objective conclusion. Collecting the 30 biomass electricity projects, then using BC2 model, AR model and Regional AR model to evaluate these 30 examples, we draw the conclusion that the distribution of the Chinese biomass energy is unbalanced, and in all, the Southern part exceeds the Northern part. Specifically, the Southwest part, Central and Southern part, together with Northeast part are the main area of the biomass energy. Since the resources market and the grid environment are good, the efficiency of these areas is higher. As to the northern part, it is better to improve the market environment and the industry environment, so as to improve the efficiency.

Research on Forecasting Equipment Support Personnel Requirement in Immobile Communication Station

LI Zhi-rong, GAO Qi, LIU Shen-yang, CHEN Wei-yuan

2015, 24(1):  179-184.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2015.0025

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The materiel support personnel of immobile communication station are the key to equipment support. Working quantity in an immobile communication station can be divided into three categories: the communication duty, preventive maintenance, and corrective maintenance. Making use of the dynamic factor, requirement of communication duty personnel is calculated and optimized; preventive maintenance personnel requirement model is established based on the analysis of the task size and working time; and the number of corrective maintenance personnel is estimated, through analyzing of peculiarity of the task size by integral method.

Study on the Benefits of Network Subjects Affected by Network Structure and Information

LU Di, WANG Yao-wu, SHEN Qi-ping

2015, 24(1):  185-190.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2015.0026

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Network structure and network information can have a direct influence on network function. To establish a mathematical model, with the corresponding mathematical analysis and stimulation validation uncovers the law about how the benefits of network subjects are affected. Two classes of network subjects are introduced and their benefits are defined, and accordingly, two cases of results are obtained according to the different situations of network information. The above results can deduce three conclusions and give management suggestions. Besides, the further research work is also discussed.

Dynamic Comprehensive Evaluation on Technological Innovative Ability of Knowledge-intensive Manufactures Based on Catastrophe Progression ——Perspective of Change Speed

CHEN Wei, YANG Zao-li, ZHOU Wen, LANG Yi-fu

2015, 24(1):  191-201.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2015.0027

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In order to deeply estimate the change speed development trend, combining with the existed research on the model of static evaluation、change speed state and change speed trend, from the perspective of information gathering and the way of incentive or punishment, we modify the change speed state and change speed trend model, and propose the dynamic comprehensive evaluation model. Then the samples of 30 provinces in china are used to make an empirical study. we find out the results of static evaluation and dynamic comprehensive evaluation on technological innovative ability of knowledge-intensive manufactures of the 30 Chinese provinces between the the year of 2005~2011. The results indicate: the high technology innovation ability of knowledge~intensive manufactures in the eastern developed provinces, is weak in the rising trend of change rate; the low technology innovation ability in central and western provinces, is outstanding in the rising trend of change rate in the majority of provinces, and higher than eastern provinces in rising amplitude.

Evaluation Method on Innovation Capability of the Innovative Enterprises Based on Experts’ Preference

YANG Chang-hui, QIU Li-wei, DING Shuai

2015, 24(1):  202-208.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2015.0028

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The paper’s main purpose is to solve the problems of different experts’ preference and inconsistent dimensions on the evaluation of innovative enterprises’ innovation capability. We establish a scientific assessment index system. Then we build the utility function considering experts’ preference to estimate the utility of the criteria on innovation capability and determine the gray correlation coefficient matrix. Finally, a modified TOPSIS method is employed to overall evaluate the innovation abilities and rank the innovative enterprises. The numerical example demonstrates that the method proposed in the paper is scientific and practical.

Study on SMEs Credit Risk Assessment in the Mode of Supply Chain Finance ——Based on Left and Right Scores Fuzzy TOPSIS

ZHOU Wen-kun, WANG Cheng-fu

2015, 24(1):  209-215.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2015.0029

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SME credit risk assessment is the key to executing supply chain financing. On the basis of the summary of conducted research, this paper builds a relatively complete set of risk evaluation index system. Moreover, we use DEA, AHP and fuzzy TOPSIS based on the left and right scores to evaluate the credit risk of SMEs in the supply chain financing. Finally, the method is applied to an example, and the results suggest that Synthetic application of AHP and fuzzy TOPSIS based on the left and right scores in multi-level evaluation index problem is available and reasonable and can provide basis for decision making of supply chain financing credit risk assessment.

Comparison of Difference Driving Evaluation Methods in Stability and Difference Highlighting

LI Wei-wei, YI Ping-tao, GUO Ya-jun

2015, 24(1):  216-221.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2015.0030

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To the problem of multiple methods without unified comparison standards in comprehensive evaluation, we choose four evaluation methods highlighting the difference among objects to analyze their stability and difference highlighting capability using the approach of stochastic simulation. The conclusions are drawn that the stability of four methods from high to low is variance, maximum deviation, entropy, deviation maximization method, and the more stable of a method, the less capability of highlighting difference. This research not only can test and verify the features of four methods which could provide reference for evaluators of methods selecting, but also can provide technology support, that is stochastic simulation method, for other evaluation methods comparison.

Study on the Stock Algorithmic Trading Strategy Based on Online Theory

ZHU Ying, RU Shao-feng, ZHANG Wen-ming

2015, 24(1):  222-230.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2015.0031

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The online theory is used to study multi-stock algorithmic trading strategy. On the basis of El-Yaniv’s research, online buying strategy is established and proved to be the optimal online strategy; multi-stock algorithmic trading strategy is designed and the investment portfolio is determined by weighting every stock yield with applying single stock trading strategy into multi-stock trading strategy. Transaction time data of twenty stocks, which are picked out of the A Stock of Shanghai Stock Exchange, is selected to test and verify the validity of the strategy mentioned in this paper. Ten stocks are randomly picked out of these twenty stocks to compose a group, and four groups are selected to be tested respectively, and the result indicates that the strategy proposed in this paper has better yield to any multi-stock. As for transaction cycle, ten even length is selected for test and the result implies the average yield will reach its maximum when the transaction cycle is eighteen and the average yield is 5.2%.

Optimal Inverstment Strategy with Heston Stochastic Volatility and Dynamicvar Constraint

CAO Yuan

2015, 24(1):  231-236.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2015.0032

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This paper considers an optimal portfolio choice problem under Heston stochastic volatility model and a dynamic VaR constraint. Assume the financial market consists of one risky asset, like stock, whose price satisfies a Heston stochastic volatility model and one risk-free asset, like bond. The investor aims to maximize the expected power utility of the terminal wealth. At the same time, the investor hopes to manage the portfolio risk by a dynamic VaR constraint, which means she will compute the VaR of her portfolio continually. Using the stochastic dynamic programming approach, we solve the problem numerically. Finally, economic implications are proposed to illustrate the impacts of Heston stochastic volatility and dynamic VaR constraint on the investor’s optimal strategy. Our numerical experiment shows that the dynamic VaR criterion is an effective tool to manage the risk during the whole investment period.

Management Science

Grouping Method of Rescuers in Emergency Rescue Considering the Synergistic Effect

YE Xin, WANG Xue, ZHONG Qiu-yan

2015, 24(1):  237-245.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2015.0033

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A grouping method of rescuers considering synergistic effect is proposed to solve rescuers grouping problem in the emergency management. Firstly, a description of the grouping problem of emergency rescuers is presented. Then, in order to quantify synergistic effect among rescuers, a synergetic degree model of rescue group based on system synergy theory is proposed. Furthermore, the basic efficiency of rescuers and the synergistic effect among rescuers are considered comprehensively. Base on synergetic degree model, the actual efficiency expression of the rescuers to complete different tasks is proposed. On this basis, the rescuers grouping optimization model is constructed, in which the objectives are to maximize the actual efficiency of each rescue group. This model belongs to the multi-objective 0-1 quadratic integer programming model. Furthermore, the procedure of converting this multi-objective 0-1 quadratic integer programming model into single-objective 0-1 linear integer programming model is presented and then the optimal grouping plan of rescuers can be obtained. Finally, an illustrating example and analysis show the feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed method.

Research on the Efficiency and Influencing Factors of Environmental Technology Innovation of Equipment Manufacturing Industries

XU Jian-zhong, QU Xiao-yu

2015, 24(1):  246-254.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2015.0034

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This paper uses entropy method to measure the environmental pollution index of Chinese equipment manufacturing industries in 2005~2011. Considering the issue of environmental pollution and energy consumption, the paper uses DEA-Malmquist method to measure the efficiency of environmental technology innovation of Chinese equipment manufacturing industries in 2005~2011, and uses Tobit regression analysis to analyze the influencing factors of the efficiency of environmental technology innovation. The results show that the environmental pollution index shows a fall-rise-fall trend, the efficiency of overall environmental technology innovation of Chinese equipment manufacturing industries firstrises and then falls, technical efficiency continues to rise, technology degeneration is the reason of the fall of the efficiency of environmental technology innovation, and market competition, capital deepening and foreign capital introduction have significant positive effects on the efficiency of environmental technology innovation.

Joint Pricing and Production Policy for Deterioration Items with Partial Backlogging

HUO Jia-zhen, LI Gui-ping, DUAN Yong-rui

2015, 24(1):  255-262.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2015.0035

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In this paper, we develop a joint pricing and production model for deterioration items in which we assume that the demand rate is dependent both on the selling price and the inventory level, the production rate and the deterioration rate are known and constant and the unmet demand is partial backlogged in the shortage period. We first prove that for any given selling price, the total profit function is strictly concave, and the average profit function is strictly pseudo-concave, that is, there exists the unique and optimal solution to the problem, and the sufficient condition is also presented. Then an algorithm is proposed to obtain the optimal solution of the problem. At last, we give a numerical example to illustrate the application of the model and algorithm proposed, and then we also conduct the sensitivity analysis on the parameters. The results show that when the production cost, the shortage cost and the opportunity cost of items increase, the average profit of system will decrease. The optimal pricing-production policy and the average profit are highly sensitive to the production cost and the backordering resistance.

Research into the Quality of Agricultural Products in “Company+Farmer” Mode Based on Signaling Game Model

YUE Liu-qing, LIU Yong-mei

2015, 24(1):  263-269.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2015.0036

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In recent years, food safety incidents frequently occurred. This paper discusses the influence factors of farmers’ opportunistic behaviors in “company+farmer” mode based on signaling game model. Through the analysis of the basic model, it finds that the end of the game would be separate or the pooling equilibrium is determined by the hidden cost of production information. Then, in the further extended model, the sampling inspection is introduced. If the peripheral punishment can’t cover the inspection cost and the profit of low quality agricultural products, the company has no intention to inspect, or even it inspects, prohibited agricultural products still exists. Finally, it proposes some methods and countermeasures to develop the quality of agricultural products in “company+farmer” mode.

Study on Evaluation of Continuous Innovation Ability of High-end Equipment Manufacturing Enterprises Based on MC-ZF-HD-DS

YANG Xu, XIAO Heng, LIAO Shan

2015, 24(1):  270-279.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2015.0037

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In order to evaluate continuous innovation ability of high-end equipment manufacturing enterprises objectively and accurately, this study establishes an evaluation indicator system of continuous innovation ability of high-end equipment manufacturing enterprises, and employs MC-ZF - HD -DS to carry out evaluation of continuous innovation ability of concrete high-end equipment manufacturing enterprises. Further more this paper adopts a fuzzy rough set method to select high frequency audition evaluation indicators, uses maximize performance combination weight method to carry out weighting of the selected indicator system, and uses grey fixed weight clustering to cluster evaluation objects. On this basis, the evidence theory is adopted to carry out synthesis of the clustering results, set ten high-end equipment manufacturing enterprises as research objects, and then make an empirical analysis of the established evaluation model of continuous innovation ability of high-end equipment manufacturing enterprises. Finally this study forms the final evaluation results, and demonstrates the feasibility and effectiveness of the above method through empirical analysis.

Research on the Relationship between the Strength of Cluster Enterprise Tie on Coordinative Technological Innovation ——Based on Enterprises Types and Innovation Types

YANG Jiao-ping, ZHANG Heng-jun, HOU Nan

2015, 24(1):  280-287.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2015.0038

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Wnether a strong tie or weak tie is more conductive to the enterprises’ coordinative innovation has been debated. Based on past research, cluster enterprise is divided into core firm and supporting enterprise, and technological innovation is divided into exploration innovation and exploitation innovation. This paper argues that both a strong tie and weak tie can coexist, and that the weak tie often exists between core enterprises, and meanwhile, the strong tie exists between core enterprises and matching enterprises. That the weak tie is beneficial for exploration innovation and the strong tie is beneficial for exploitation innovation is confirmed by the game model. Studies also discover that the exploration innovation and exploitation innovation are mutual improvement and mutual supplementary.