Table of Content

12 April 2015, Volume 24 Issue 2

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Overview

Dynamic Control and Optimization of CapitalConstrained Stochastic Inventory Systems

ZHAO Xiu-li, WANG Shou-yang

2015, 24(2):  1-19.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2015.0039

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For most firms, especially the small-and medium-sized ones, the operational decisions are affected by their internal capital and ability to obtain external capital. However, the majority of the current studies on dynamic inventory control ignore the firm’s financial status and financing issues completely. An important question that arises is: what are the dynamic optimal inventory and financing policies for firms with limited capital and limited access to external capital? In this paper, we review some of the latest developments in this area. After a brief review of single period models, we focus on multi-period dynamic control of the firm who aims to optimize its xpected terminal wealth. Two cases are discussed in detail: self-finance and short term finance. In the first case, the firm has to rely on its own capital for all ordering decisions, while in the second, the firm can borrow short term loan from lenders. A detailed characterization of the optimal policy is presented and its managerial insights are discussed. Several possible extensions are suggested.

Theory Analysis and Methodology Study

An Experimental Study of Fairness and Learning in a Triadic Supply Chain

CHEN Jun-lin, ZHAO Xiao-bo, SONG Ya-nan, CHEN Jian-ming

2015, 24(2):  20-28.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2015.0040

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Experimental studies of behavioral economics have provided convincing evidences that people are not perfectly rational but are affected by factors such as fairness concerns and learning. We conduct laboratory experiments based on a triadic supply chain to examine the horizontal fairness concerns of backup supplier and the learning curves of both manufacturer and backup supplier. Both individual learning and social learning settings are considered. The experiment results support the learning effect hypothesis in the supply chain: As the experiment proceeds, the decision time for a single period decreases; the overall rejection rate of backup supplier is gradually reduced; and the strategies of manufacturers are gradually concentrated. Furrhermore, we construct a reinforcement learning model with horizontal fairness concerns. Parameter estimation results show that the horizontal fairness concern of backup supplier is significant in both experiments with individual learning setting and social learning setting.

Supply Chain Coordination with Revenue Sharing Contract in the Presence of Imbalance Spot Liquidity

YOU Xiao-lan, FENG Geng-zhong, XU Jin-peng

2015, 24(2):  29-37.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2015.0041

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Considering a supply chain consisting of a manufacturer, retailerand third-party B2B online spot market, we derive the optimal system output from a centralized model of supply chain, and research the optimal fixed price and the optimal order quantity in a Stackelberg game model with wholesale price contract. Then we take a cooperative game approach in this paper to consider the coordination issue using revenue sharing contracts. We build a decentralized model with revenue sharing contract, and prove that the revenue sharing contract can coordinate supply chain. Using the wholesale price mechanism as a benchmark, we study the effect of Pareto-improvement with revenue sharing contract. Finally, we discuss the impacts of spot liquidity on supply chain coordination. Our study demonstrates that a B2B online spot market with good spot liquidity of selling can promote supply chain to achieve coordination with optimal production. Although efficiency of supply chain can be improved by increasing spot liquidity, the manufacturer prefers good spot liquidity of selling to that of buying.

Research on Overbooking Strategy of “Hotel+OTA” Dual-Channel Supply Chain

YE Fei, LU Mu-rui, LIAO Peng

2015, 24(2):  38-43.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2015.0042

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In order to solve overbooking and allocation problem with demand uncertainty when hotel collaborates with Online Travel Agency, we formulate a mathematical model based on the Agency Model. The optimal overbooking and allocation policies are derived. A numerical example is further given to study the effects of commission rate and demand uncertainty on the optimal decisions. The results show that the hotel manager will apply dual-channel and utilize overbooking policy when the commission rate and demand uncertainty are low. However, when the commission rate and demand uncertainty are high enough, the hotel manager will apply single-channel and do not utilize overbooking policy. We also find that the hotel manager will reduce the room allocation to OTA when the demand of offline channel becomes more uncertain or the commission rate increases.

Coordination Pricing in Multi-channels Supply Chain with Asymmetric Demand Information

YU Li-juan, LI Xue, ZHU Ai-min

2015, 24(2):  44-50.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2015.0043

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In recent years, with e-commerce widely used, direct channel has been developed fastly. Many enterprises begin to increase direct channel on the basis of traditional retailing channel. To the problem of one-manufacturer one-retailer supply chain with asymmetric demand information between the two members,the manufacturer owns multi-channels composed by direct channel and traditional retailing channel. This paper analyzes the optimal wholesale price of the manufacturer and retailer when they centralize control and decentralized control with stackelberg Game Theory separately, and the result shows that decentralized control can lower the efficiency of the supply chain. To improve the efficiency of the multi-channels supply chain, we provide the manufacturer with a quantity-discount pricing policy that can coordinate the multi-channels supply chain price. Lastly we use the numerical test and effectiveness analysis, and the result shows that quantity-discount can make the manufacturer and retailer in the supply chain win-win, so it is reasonable and effective.

A Heuristic Algorithm for Solving the Bin Packing Problem with Conflicts

YUAN Ye, LI Yi-jun

2015, 24(2):  51-57.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2015.0044

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In real distributions, there are a great many of packing problems with food, medicine and hazardous material named bin packing problem with conflicts, whose objective is to minimize the number of used bins and has to satisfy the conflict constraints among the items. To solve the problems, the mathematical model of BPPC is proposed based on the conflict relationship among the items, packing order and capacity constraints of the bins; and then a heuristic algorithm is designed for solving BPPC, the algorithm computes the maximum clique structure iterately to eliminate the conflict relationship among the items, runs the packing operation according to the items corresponding to the current maximum clique structure, and a local search methed named shuffling strategy is applied to further optimize the current packing results; lastly the simulation experiment is carried out on Iori’s strandard instances compared with the heuristic algorithm based on the graph coloring model, the computational results demonstrate that the heuristic algorithm in this paper is more feasible and effective.

Research on Solving Method of Vague Assignment Problem

CUI Chun-sheng

2015, 24(2):  58-63.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2015.0045

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The particularity of vague assignment problem is effective matrix expressed by vague values, which reflects the uncertainty and ambiguity of assignment problem. On the characteristics of vague value, vague assignment problem should be transformed into classlcs asslgnment problem. Thereof, with the “Matthew effect” function, the eigenvalues vector and Pareto, vague assignment problem can be solved. Finally, a group of data which comes from reference are calculated. Meanwhile, we get a desired result.

A Hybrid Intelligent Algorithm Based on Delaunay Tetrahedron Mesh Generation for Euclidean Steiner Minimum Tree Problem in 3-space

WANG Jia-zhen, MA Liang, ZHANG Hui-zhen

2015, 24(2):  64-70.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2015.0046

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Euclidean Steiner minimum tree problem, a classical NP-hard problem in combination optimization, has been widely studied in many fields. Euclidean Steiner minimal tree problem in 3-space is the generalization of Euclidean Steiner minimum tree problem in 2-space. The research results on Euclidean Steiner minimal tree problem in 3-space have been rarely published because of their difficulties. In this paper, a hybrid intelligent method is designed by using Delaunay tetrahedron mesh generation technology to solve the Euclidean Steiner minimal tree problem in 3-space, which can not only avoid falling into local optima, but also has good effects in solving large scale problems. Promising results are obtained by using this hybrid method coded in MATLAB to solve series of Euclidean Steiner minimum tree problem instances in 3-space.

Robust Optimization Model for Berth Planning Problem in Container Terminals

ZENG Qing-cheng, ZHAO Xiao-feng, HU Xiang-pei, YANG Zhong-zhen

2015, 24(2):  71-77.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2015.0047

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To tackle the uncertainties that happen in operations of container terminals, robust optimization model and algorithms for berth planning problem are developed. The objective is to decrease the impact of uncertainties on operation efficiency of container terminals. Firstly, the robustness measures for berth schedule are proposed, and the each measure is assessed through computational experiments. Then, a two-stage robust optimization algorithm is designed: the first stage is to minimize the total delay of berthing vessels without considering the schedule robustness, and the total delay obtained is taken as a threshold value for the next stage. The second stage is to maximize the robustness measures while keeping the total vessel delay at a level equal to or smaller than the threshold value obtained by the first stage. Finally, the impact of operation resource(the number of quay cranes)on schedule robustness is analyzed. Numerical experiments indicate that weighted slack index is a valid robustness measure and the proposed two-stage algorithm can solve the robust optimization of berth plan efficiently.

Research on Structuralization Method for Earthquake Emergency Cases Under the Condition of Incompleteness Information

ZHANG Bai-shang, LI Xiang-yang, LI Xiang-hua

2015, 24(2):  78-86.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2015.0048

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Earthquake emergencies are characterized with urgency, destruction and incompleteness of information, and do a great harm to the safety for people's lives and property. Case-based reasoning is an effective method for emergency disposal and case representation is the basis of case-based reasoning. However, the current methods of case representation are not involved in the incompleteness of information for emergencies, which weakens the effectiveness of emergency case representation and affects the accuracy of case retrieval and the effect of case adaptation. On the basis of case representation research, this paper introduces mass function of evidence theory into the framework representation method and propose the framework representation method for earthquake emergency cases under the condition of incompleteness insormation according to structured and quantitative requirements of case-based reasoning. Then it puts forward retrieval methods for earthquake emergency cases under the condition of incompleteness information. Finally, it the proposed case representation and retrieval method for earthquake emergency cases under the condition of incompleteness information is verified for application.

Evolutionary Game Analysis of Wayfinding Behavior

DUAN Qi, SHI Ying-jie

2015, 24(2):  87-91.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2015.0049

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For the wayfinding behavior of passengers in transit hubs, and a game model among unfamiliar passengers, a game model between familiar and unfamiliar passengers are presented. The duplicative dynamic equations of these models are formulated and analyzed to obtain evolutionary stable strategies. It is showed that the evolutionary stable strategies of unfamiliar passengers and familiar passengers based on bounded rationality depend on the rationality of singage layout. Finally, some reasonable advices about how to optimize singage layout to improve positive wayfinding behaviors are proposed.

Method for Fuzzy-stochastic Multi-criteria Decision-making Based on Prospect Theory and Improved TOPSIS with its Application

LI Cun-bin, ZHANG Jian-ye, GU Yun-dong, QI Zhi-qiang

2015, 24(2):  92-100.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2015.0050

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This paper investigates the grey-probability multi-criteria decision-making problem in which the criteria value is interval grey-intuitionistic fuzzy number and the weighted coefficients are partially known. A decision-making approach based on improved TOPSIS and Prospect theory is proposed. This approach is composed of two steps: the first one is defining prospect value function and probability weighting function of grey intuitionistic fuzzy numbers and constructing prospects decision matrix via prospect theory, and the second one is ordering the corresponding alternatives by applying the complex closeness degree of the improved TOPSIS method. As for the TOPSIS we improve it in two aspects: On the one hand, we first define the concept of the difference between alternatives, and consequently construct a maximum average difference program model by using the idea of maximizing deviations, and then, a calculating weight method which satisfies the manager subjective information with the algorithm of maximum deviation is proposed. On the other hand, we use the degree of grey relational instead of applying the distance of positive-negative ideal solution to measure the closeness degree of distance between alternatives and positive-negative ideal solution. Finally, an example is provided to examine the effectiveness of our method.

C-TODIM Decision Making Method Considering Correlated Attributes

LIANG Xia, JIANG Yan-ping, LIANG Hai-ming

2015, 24(2):  101-107.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2015.0051

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With respect to the multi-attribute decision making problem with correlated attributes, in which the decision maker’s reference dependence and loss aversion behaviors are considered, a novel C-TODIM decision making method is proposed. Based on the classical TODIM method, considering the reference dependence behavior of decision maker, the gain and loss values of each alternative relative to the other alternative concerning each attribute are calculated. Then, considering the loss aversion behavior of decision maker, the perceived dominance degree for each alternative over the other one is obtained by integrating the corresponding gain and loss values on multi-attribute. Furthermore, the total perceived dominance degree for each alternative can be computed to obtain the ranking result of alternatives. Finally, an example of venture investment is given to illustrate the feasibility and validity of the proposed method.

Research on Equipment Outlay Budget Project Assembly Optimization Decision-making Model

HU Yu-qing, ZHANG Shuai, YUAN Ming, ZHANG Yong-shun

2015, 24(2):  108-112.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2015.0052

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Applying the theory of Portfolio Management, in accordance with the actual need and available finance, the assembly optimization model for the equipment outlay budget project is designed, and for this function, the maximum expected revenue is the goal, and the resource restraint, the project relationship restraint and the project decompounded restraint are controlled by the equipment outlay budget. The model provides decision-making means for equipment outlay budget authorized and enhances them in a scientific ,fair and transparant way.

Decision Method for Two-sided Matching Considering Agents’ Psychological Behavior with Uncertain Preference Ordinal Information

YUE Qi, ZHANG Lei, ZHANG Li-li

2015, 24(2):  113-120.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2015.0053

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With regard to the two-sided matching problem based on uncertain preference ordinal information, a decision method is proposed. The related concepts of two-sided matching and uncertain preference ordinal are firstly introduced, and the problem description of two-sided matching considering agents’ psychological behavior with uncertain preference ordinal information is given. Secondly, the threshold value given by each agent is chosen as the reference point, and the gain and loss relative to the reference point corresponding to the uncertain preference ordinal given by each agent are calculated. Considering trait of loss aversion of the agent’s psychological behavior, the perceived value of gain and loss of each agent with respect to the agent of the other side is calculated according to the idea of TODIM. Furthermore, a bi-objective optimization model is developed. By using linear weighted method, the bi-objective optimization model is converted into a single objective model. The matching result is obtained by solving the model. Finally, an illustrative example of two-sided matching between demanders and suppliers in IT service outsourcing is used to illustrate the validity of the proposed method.

A Decision Method to Maximize Tourism Industry Service Quality Under Budget Constraints

MENG Qing-liang, ZHANG Ling, MENG Wen

2015, 24(2):  121-127.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2015.0054

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Based on the quantitative analysis in Kano model ,this paper proposes a model for improving tourism industry service quality from the customer satisfaction and cost budget perspectives. Relevant evaluation information is obtained by employing the questionnaire survey, and the relationships between customer satisfaction and the fulfillment of customer requirements (S-CR) is determined in Kano model through processing the obtained evaluation information. Then based on the S-CR relationship functions, in the context of considering cost budget, the optimization model of improving tourism industry service quality to maximize the customer satisfaction is constructed, and the budget allocation is determined by solving the optimization model. Finally, a case study is provided to illustrate the feasibility and availability of the proposed method.

Analysis of Multi-objective Facility Layout Problem Using Flexible Bay Structure

CHANG Zheng, LU Jing

2015, 24(2):  128-134.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2015.0055

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In order to solve continuous unequal area facility layout problem, a multi-objective facility layout model is proposed in the representation of flexible bay structure. The model aims to minimize material handling cost, to maximize adjacency rating and to maximize distance request. The model also takes vertical and horizontal aisles as well as aspect ratio constraints of facilities into consideration, which makes the layout more realistic. In order to overcome the disadvantage of subjectivity caused by the artificial weights of multiple objectives of conventional simplification method, a multi-objective optimization algorithm based on Non-dominated Sorting Genetic Algorithm Ⅱ(NSGA Ⅱ)is proposed as the solving technique. At the same time, the corresponding encoding rule, cross operator, mutation operator and penalty function are designed. The empirical analysis of a logistics park confirms the effectiveness of the proposed model and methodology as a practicable tool for facility layout designers.

Emergency Vehicle Disposition Model Based on Scenario Analysis

YU Wu-yang

2015, 24(2):  135-139.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2015.0056

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This paper is concerned with the emergency vehicle disposition problem and the scheduling problem for emergency evacuation in different scenario, which influence the evacuees quantity and the time limitation of evacuation. A bi-level programming model is established in which scheduling problem for emergency evacuation as a lower-level model and minimizes the total expectation of evacuation time as a up-level model. A simulated annealing algorithm embedded with the CPLEX algorithm is presented and a numerical example is given.

Application Research

A Method for Selecting Risk Response Plan of Urban Lifeline Considering Interdependent Feature Matching

SUO Wei-lan, CHEN Rui

2015, 24(2):  140-145.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2015.0057

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With regard to the interdependence on feature criteria and variety on information formats mentioned in the problem on selecting risk response plan of urban lifeline, a hybrid decision making method considering interdependent feature matching is proposed. Firstly, definitions on practical region, specialized region and common region are given. Then, feature criterion values on a risk event and corresponding response plan in the formats of interval values and linguistic terms are mapped into the practical region and specialized region, respectively. The common region is also determined according to the overlap between two regions motioned above. Next, axiom design method is extended to a hybrid decision making environment. Based on the extended method, the information contents that represent the matching degrees between risk event and response plans under each feature criterion can be computed, and the preliminary screening of response plans can be conducted. Furthermore, through aggregating weight, interdependent coefficient and information content of the rest response plans under each feature criterion by 2-additive Choquet integral operator, the overall information contents that represent the comprehensive matching degrees between risk event and response plans are obtained to select the optimal risk response plan. Finally, an illustrative example is used to show the validity and feasibility of the proposed method. Research results show that the proposed method can provide a effective decision support for relevant regulatory authorities to respond to urban lifeline risk as soon as possible and reduce risk loss and damage at a maximum extent.

Measurement and Enhancement of Customer Equity Based on Reporting Data ——Application Research in China Unicom

SHAO Jing-bo, ZHANG Jun-hui, LI Yan

2015, 24(2):  146-154.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2015.0058

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Customer equity reflects enterprise’s ability of obtaining customer in market competition. The purpose of this paper is to measure listed companies’ customer equity based on reporting data, and propose enhancement strategies based on the measurement results. This paper firstly simulates the technological substitution model of listed companies using Matlab to estimate customer cumulative number and further customer equity. Then the paper calculates the lifetime value of current customers on the basis of shifted β geometric model and estimated customer equity sustainable ratio considering both customers’ obtaining and turnover. Thirdly, this paper combines customer equity sustainable ratio with customer equity to structure a two-dimensional plot which analyses time series characteristic of customer equity and proposes enhanced strategies. Finally, the application results in China Unicom show that this measurement method has a strong operability and high accuracy for the measurement and enhancement of listed companies’ customer equity. The results can provide a reference value for customer equity management of listed companies.

Analysis of Stability on Scatter Degree Method and the Improvement

GUO Ya-jun, LI Ling-yu, YI Ping-tao, LI Wei-wei

2015, 24(2):  155-162.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2015.0059

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We analyze the stability of scatter degree method, which is one of the most popular comprehensive evaluation methods, from two aspects respectively by considering abnormal object and extreme sample using stochastic simulation method, and then obtain some relevant conclusions. On this basis, we present an improved method for scatter degree method by fusing factor analyzing approach into it. Through the analyses of the stochastic simulation example, we can conclude that this improved method for scatter degree method can weaken the interference of outliers to original data. And then, the numerical example illustrates that the improved method can increase the stability of scatter degree method with the consideration of the internal diversity of a same data group. At last, it is pointed that the scatter degree method applies to the questions with fewer independent indicators, while its improved method based on factor analysis is more suitable to the questions in hierarchical structure with more attributes and belonging to different categories.

Multi-unit Reverse Multi-attribute English Auction Mechanism Based on the Strategy of Price Discrimination

ZENG Xian-ke, FENG Yu-qiang, YANG Rui

2015, 24(2):  163-169.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2015.0060

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Because the existing multi-unit reverse multi-attribute auction mechanisms are low efficiency of the market allocation, they are not conducive to maximization of social welfare and long-term cooperation between buyers and sellers. To resolve the above problems, based on the strategy of price discrimination we design a highly efficient Multi-unit Reverse Multi-attribute English Auction Mechanism(MRMEAM), build the Winner Determination model using linear mixed-integer programming and give the auction process and bidding strategies for suppliers bidding decision support. Then we collect data through the design of numerical example and simulation comparing experiment, and we verify the new auction mechanism’s market allocation efficiency and utility of the purchaser are both higher by statistical analysis method. The above study results are applicable to online automatic multi-unit procurement through the combination of reverse multi-attribute auction and information technology.

The Transmission Channels of Exchange Rate Impact on Employment and Its Effect Estimates ——Based on the Empirical Study of China’s Manufacturing Panel Data

WANG Xiang-nin, GUO Gui-yuan

2015, 24(2):  170-177.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2015.0061

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The transmission channels of exchange rate impact on employment and their industry heterogeneity are studied in this paper. The paper establishes a theoretic model of transmission channels through which exchange rates impact on employment based on traditional production function and considers how exchange rates impact on employment through these three transmission channels: export, resource allocation and production efficiency. We calculate the effect of three channels in the process of exchange rate impacting on employment based on panel date of 30 industries in Chinese manufacturing from 2003 to 2009, by using Residual Substitute Regression and Panel Smooth Transition Regression. The results show that export channel play a significant role in the Transmission Mechanism, the effect of production efficiency channel and resource allocation channel are relatively weak, and the overall impact of appreciation of RMB on China’s employment is negative. Every transmission in the Transmission Mechanism exhibits a different degree and characteristic of industry heterogeneity.

Method for Portfolio Decision-Making Considering the Decision-Makers’ Psychological Behaviors

CAO Bing-bing, FAN Zhi-ping, YU Shu-jing

2015, 24(2):  178-184.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2015.0062

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Decision makers’ psychological behaviors cannot be ignored in the real portfolio decision-making. In this paper, a decision analysis method based on cumulative prospect theory and mental account is proposed to solve the portfolio decision-making problem considering the decision-makers’ psychological behaviors. First, decision makers’ expected returns are regarded as the reference points, according to cumulative prospect theory, the gain and loss of each security’s return with respect to reference points are calculated and comprehensive prospect values of all candidate securities in different market states are calculated. Then, according to the decision-makers’ mental account, an optimization model for portfolio decision-making with probability constraint is constructed, whose objective is to maximize decision-makers’ overall comprehensive prospect value, and whose constraints contain wealth threshold constraint and the probability constraint. After translating the probability constraint into linear constraints, portfolio alternative is obtained by solving the linear optimization model. Finally, a numerical example is used to verify the feasibility and validity of the method proposed in this paper. The results show that the method proposed in this paper can solve the securities portfolio problem considering decision-makers’ psychological behaviors.

Final-offer Arbitration about Post-sale Compensation

ZHANG Lin-Lan, LIU Qing, GUI Hua-Ming

2015, 24(2):  185-191.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2015.0063

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Post-sale compensation disputes are increasingly common in commodity consumption. These disputes often cause a lower efficiency and acquire much time and energy. This paper introduces a solution by resorting to final-offer arbitration. The arbitrator determines facts and then selects an offer as the ideal value in its own mind. We discuss three kinds of situations aiming to the ideal value of the arbitrator in which both parties think it should happen. Then we analyze the optimal offer strategies of both parties based on the expected utility maximization principle. The conclusions presented in this paper could provide effective references for the actual arbitration problem.

Analytic Solutions of Mean-Variance Model with Singular Covariance Matrix and Different Interest Rates for Borrowing and Lending

JIANG Chun-fu, PENG Hong-yi

2015, 24(2):  192-200.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2015.0064

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In the mean-variance portfolio model, the covariance matrix is likely to be singular since the multi-collinearity and correlation can arise from the increase of financial assets, especially when considering a large-scale portfolio. In view of this situation, we reconsider the mean-variance portfolio problem under singular covariance matrix. A new approach based on generalized inverse matrix is proposed as a remedy for the deficiency of conventional methods in which covariance matrix is constrained to be invertible. The analytic solutions of frontier portfolio and portfolio frontier are derived with different interest rates for borrowing and lending, which extending successfully the classic Markowitz portfolio model.

Research on Credit Scoring Model Based on Transfer Learning

ZHU Bing, HE Chang-zheng, LI Hui-yuan

2015, 24(2):  201-207.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2015.0065

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Customer credit scoring is an important part of daily business activities for financial companies such as banks. Default customers usually makae up the minority of the population while customers of timely repayment make up the majority, which is called a class imbalance problem in the study of customer credit scoring. Existing methods in credit scoring cannot effectively solve the issue of class imbalance caused by absolute scarcity of the minority class. In our study, we introduce the technique of transfer learning to integrate the external information and try to solve the issue of class imbalance caused by absolute scarcity of the minority class. In order to exploit the minority sample outside the system more effectively, a transfer learning model is proposed, which is based on the ensemble transfer learning technology transfer bagging. A two-stage sampling method and the technique of group method of data handling are used in the new model to improve the generation and integration strategy of base models. The empirical results on the credit card dataset from a commercial bank show that the new model can deal with the issue of class imbalance caused by absolute scarcity better in comparison with other commonly used methods in credit scoring and provide a better prediction of the credit status of default customers.

Entropy Weight and TOPSIS Evaluation on the Matching of the Regional Innovation Input and Output Based on the Gini Index

JIA Ying-ying, GUO Peng, ZHAO Jing

2015, 24(2):  208-214.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2015.0066

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The paper measures the matching level of the regional innovation input and output based on the matching gini index. Then it establishes the entropy weight and TOPSIS evaluation model based on the Gini Index to evaluate the matching level of 31 provincial regions in China. Then we analyze the matching evaluating value of every region in clusfer. The result demonstrates the input and output of China regional innovation are mismatched and form the polarized area, which are the Pearl River Delta, the Yangtze River Delta and the Beijing-Tianjin region. The research results verify the feasibility and rationality of the proposed model. A new and scientific thought is provided to study the regional innovation input and output.

VWAP Algorithm Selling Strategy Based on Dynamic Trading Volume Forecast

YAO Hai-bo, RU Shao-feng, ZHANG Wen-ming

2015, 24(2):  215-220.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2015.0067

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The traditional VWAP trading strategy trading volume depends on the distribution of split single transaction, and the forecast of the distribution of trading volumes is based on the interval volume proportion of the total volume, and this prediction method does not consider the stock price changes. Therefore, by means of the time series factor decomposition the paper first predicts the distribution of trading volumes, then based on the stock price changes in the distribution of trading volumes adjust the trading volume distribution of dynamic ranges and builds the stocks selling strategy by the trading volume distribution, and finally, through an empirical test in this paper, tests the predictive validity and effectiveness of the distribution of trading volumes. Numerical results show that the prediction method of the distribution of dynamic volumes given in this paper is better than the traditional VWAP method and the results of the new method are much closer to the distribution of the actual transaction volume. And compared with the traditional VWAP trading strategy, the strategy given in this paper is more gainful.

Two Stages WCVaR Risk-profit Optimization Model under the Ellipsoidal Discrete Distribution and Application

GAO Huan, TONG Xiao-jiao, ZHANG Hai-bin

2015, 24(2):  221-228.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2015.0068

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This paper presents two-stage risk-profit optimization problem under the know part information of random variable. Taking worst-case Conditional Value-at-Risk (WCVaR) as a measuring index, we establish two-stage profit expectation maximization model under WCVaR constraint. By means of the dual method, the complex structure of the Max-Min becomes simple. The optimal solution between the original problem and the reduced optimization problem is proved to have the same solution. Taking optimal allocation of generation assets in power markets as numerical experiments, numerical results show the validity of the proposed model and computation method.

Management Science

A λ-Maximal Compatible Classes-Based Rough Programming Model and Its Application to Coalition Formation Decision Making Problems of Enterprise Strategic Alliance

GUAN Fei , ZHANG Qiang, LI Jun

2015, 24(2):  229-236.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2015.0069

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Enterprise strategic alliance is a new kind of win-win business competition mode. In recent years, its coalition formation problem has aroused more and more concern in the field of academic and application areas. In this paper, based on the analysis of the affecting factors of coalition formation, firstly, we give the weight indexes of these factors by the order relation G1 method, screen and revise these weight indexes by clustering analysis method based on similarity. Then we choose the highest alliance stability as the goal, using λ-maximal compatible classes to simulate the relationship between each enterprise in the coalition, and we construct a λ-maximal compatible classes-based rough programming model using the properties and characteristics of rough planning model. Finally, by a specific example, the performance and characteristics of our modelare verified and the results show that our model enriches the existing theory and provide reference for the correct decision making of coalition formation.

Intelligent Evaluation Model of Management Innovation Methods Types for Chinese Enterprises

ZHANG Lu, QI Er-shiI, SHEN Shu-li, CHANG Qing

2015, 24(2):  237-245.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2015.0070

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The paper aims to investigate characteristics and discipline of management innovation method of Chinese enterprises. Using the exploratory multiple case study method and based on grounded theory, we analyze to identify influencing factors and dimensions of management innovation method of Chinese enterprises. Through open coding, axial coding selective coding and modeling, the results show that the environment, the team spirit of innovation, innovation culture and enterprise strategic choice are four fundamental categories of the factors. Based on the above analysis, we use neural network method to build intelligent evaluation systems of enterprise management innovation methods.

Research on the Relationship Between Network Scale, Connection Mechanism of I-U Cooperative Innovative Network and Innovative Performance ——Based on Multi-Agent Simulation and Dynamic System Theory

CAO Xia, LIU Guo-wei

2015, 24(2):  246-254.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2015.0071

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In order to reveal the influence between network scale, connection mechanism of I-U cooperative innovative network and innovative performance, we simulate the I-U cooperative innovative network model based on agent model and NetLogo platform, and explain the emergent phenomena with dynamic systems theory. According to our research, we find that there is a saddle-node bifurcation and transcritical bifurcation combination phenomenon between average number of network nodes and average performance of innovative network. The distribution for average distance and average performance of network is an exponential growth orbit. The distribution for connection mechanism and average performance of network is a logarithmic growth orbit. The efficiency to improve positive effect of average number of network nodes with preferential attachment mechanism based on strength is low. The preferential attachment mechanism based on random combination is more conducive to promoting the positive effect of small-world preferences network average distance.The preferential attachment mechanism based on degree is more conducive to promoting the average innovative performance of scale-free preference network.

Cross-docking-based Mode of Business Process Reengineering of Cigarette Distribution: Taking the Xi’an Cigarette Distribution Centre as an Example

YANG Shui-li, WANG Chun-xi, LIN Xue

2015, 24(2):  255-261.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2015.0072

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In this paper, we analyze the problems existing in traditional cigarette distribution model and the shipping processes, and taking the Xi’an Cigarette Eastern Distribution Centre for example, we build the cigarette cross-docking distribution model based on reengineering the cigarette distribution business process. Then, we use the ASME method and the activity-based cost respectively to test the efficiency and cost of the reengineered process. The results indicate that the reengineered process which is based on the cigarette cross-docking distribution model can integrate the supply chain resources effectively, improve the efficiency of distribution and reduce the cigarette distribution operating costs.

Technology Dependence Early Warning and Evolution Tendency Evaluation Based on Set Pair Analysis

LI Bai-zhou, LI Xin

2015, 24(2):  262-271.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2015.0073

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International economic exchange and regional economic collaboration promote the external technology acquisition among enterprises. In order to avoid the excessive dependence on external technology, especially the dependence which is uncoordinated with technological internalization, we improve the fuzzy-pair analysis and use this method to study technology dependence. This study firstly evaluates identical degree of technological dependence and constructs the early warning set of Chinese industrial enterprises above designated size by region using set pair analysis. On this basis, we extract connection number by improving fuzzy membership connection number digitizing and evaluate evolution tendency. Finally, we order these technology-dependent risks according to set pair situation. The results show that the fuzzy membership complement improvement and its combination with contact number can extract contact number of grouped data easily and effectively. Partial connection number can measure evolutionary trends accurately and minutely. The crowding-out risk of external technology to independent research and development is not significant. But technology-dependent risks clearly exist in the stage of technological internalization due to lack of creative dependence capacity of external technology in China.

Business Model Innovation and Firm Performance: Evidence from Emerging Technological Firms

CAI Jun-ya, DANG Xing-hua

2015, 24(2):  272-280.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2015.0074

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We investigate the effects of business model innovations on firm performance, and also the moderating effects of market immaturity and dysfunctional competition. We propose and test 6 hypotheses with a database from 151 emerging technology enterprises. This research finds that efficiency-centered and novelty-centered business model innovations have positive effects on firm performance. We find that market immaturity and dysfunctional competition strengthens the positive effects of efficiency-centered business model innovations on firm performance whereas solely dysfunctional competition weakens the positive effect of novelty-centered business model innovation on firm performance.

Empirical Study of the Farmers’ Health Status’ Effects on Agricultural Efficiency

LI Chang-sheng, ZHANG wen-qi

2015, 24(2):  281-287.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2015.0075

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Using household data from random samples on the 335 tea farmers investigated in the year of 2012 in Anxi county of Fujian province, the paper has explored how health affects farmers’ efficiency. A stochastic frontier production function is used to estimate the agricultural efficiency. Then the efficiency loss is regressed by Tobit model on the key variable of health impediment after controlling for households characteristics and other variables. The research confirms that agricultural efficiency is not only affected by the labor, acre and the input of chemical factors, but also is significantly and positively impacted by the health. The result suggests that investment in health is essential to improve the farmers’ efficiency and income.