Table of Content

12 June 2015, Volume 24 Issue 3

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Theory Analysis and Methodology Study

New Cognition to Multiplicative Consistency of Fuzzy Reciprocal Judgment Matrix

SHI Xi-jun, ZHANG Qiang, ZHU Ji-qiao

2015, 24(3):  1-5.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2015.0076

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To solve the problem that the relationship between addition and subtraction and that between multiplication and division in fuzzy numbers is no longer the inverse operation and make the operational laws more correspond to reality, this paper studies the multiplicative consistency of fuzzy reciprocal judgment matrix by introducing the concepts of independent variable, dependent variable, representative system and degree of freedom in classical mathematics. Then, the result reveals that it is unreasonable that if a fuzzy reciprocal judgment matrix satisfies the conditions of multiplicative consistency defined in some existing related literatures, then this matrix must be a precise reciprocal judgment matrix. Finally, based on the fuzzy cut set theory, using the relationships among elements of fuzzy reciprocal judgment matrix, the multiplicative consistency of fuzzy reciprocal judgment matrix is redefined.

Reliability Capacitated Fixed-charge Location Problem

ZHOU Yu-feng, MA Zu-jun, WANG Ke-ming

2015, 24(3):  6-13.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2015.0077

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Infrastructure networks have the risk of disruptions. Because facility location is a strategic decision that can not be changed in a short time, it is critical to account for the non-complete reliability of facility in designing the network. The classical reliability uncapacitated fixed-charge location problem is extended by considering the capacity constraint. And the reliability capacitated fixed-charge location problem under the risk of disruptions is formulated as a mixed integer nonlinear programming model. Considering the characteristics of the model, a linearization technique is applied to convert the model and a lagrangian relaxation algorithm is developed to solve the problem. A numerical example is given to verify the model and algorithm performance. The results show that facility capacity has a notable impact on location decision, and the unexpected failures of facility and capacity constraint of facility should be fully considered in real-life location decision process.

The Study on the Reliable Model for the Regional Emergency Storage Facility under the Risk of Natural Disaster

FU De-qiang, CHEN Yu-zhou, WAN Xiao-yu

2015, 24(3):  14-19.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2015.0078

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In order to protect services of regional emergency storage from being interdicted by large-scale natural disasters, we consider the probabilities of the number of facilities being interdicted and store back-up storage to enhance the reliability of location decision. The model is solved with Non-dominated Sorting Genetic Algorithm(NSGA)and a Pareto solution is obtained. The results from the instance of eight major cities in Si-Chuan province suggest that, compared to the generic model, our reliable model can deter the interdiction effect brought by natural disasters in a better way; it can also get better emergency response satisfaction value, multiple coverage value and total cost. Thus, under the chance of being interdicted by earthquake, this model should be a reliable tool to locate the emergency storage facilities.

Method for Multiple Attribute Decision Making Considering Decision Maker’s Dynamic Aspiration Under Bounded Rationality

JIANG Guang-tian

2015, 24(3):  20-26.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2015.0079

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This paper proposes a method based on cumulative prospect theory to solve the multiple attribute decision making problems with decision maker’s dynamic aspiration. In this paper, the psychological behavioral factors of decision makers are considered firstly, and the dynamic aspiration of the decision maker with respect to each attribute at different periods is chosen as the reference point. Then, the decision matrix with normal random variables is transformed into the decision matrix of gains or losses relative to each reference point. Furthermore, considering the decision maker’s different psychological attitudes toward gains and losses in decision maker’s mind, the prospect value of each alternative at each phase is calculated based on cumulative prospect theory, and the comprehensive prospect value of each alternative throughout the whole period is calculated. Based on the obtained comprehensive prospect values, a ranking of alternatives is determined. Finally, a numerical example is used to illustrate the feasibility and validity of the proposed method.

Design for Supply Chain Contract with Asymmetric Information on Promotional Effort Cost

XIAO Qun, MA Shi-hua

2015, 24(3):  27-34.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2015.0080

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We consider a supply chain consisting of a supplier and a retailer, in which the customer’s demand is hypothesized to be influenced by retailer’s promotional effort. Before the selling season, the retailer needs to decide his quantity and his effort level according to the effort cost and the revenue. Based on principal-agent theory, this paper studies how to design the buy-back contract and the revenue-sharing contract when the effort cost information can not be observed. The results of the study show that under asymmetric information, in the buy-back contract the supplier and the retailer’s best decisions are as the same as those in the revenue-sharing contract. Asymmetric information results in efficiency, the retailer’s best order quantities and the promotional effort level are lower than those under the centralized decision, and only the result with Pareto efficiency is gained which is inferior to optimization.

Evaluation of Emergency Supply Chain Reliability Under Uncertain Information

XU Zhen-yu, REN Shi-ke, GUO Xue-song, YUAN Zhi-ping

2015, 24(3):  35-44.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2015.0081

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The paper discusses the reliability of the emergency supply chain. Emergency supply chain is a powerful tool for dealing with emergencies. The evaluation of emergency supply chain reliability has a crucial significance to meet the resource needs of affected people and relief organizations. Based on the conclusion of the historical achievement and implementation experience of emergency supply chain, first, we analyze the elements of emergency supply chain reliability from the protection mechanism, information system, network structure, operation of the process. Second, the evaluating marks of the elements are described as interval, linguistic assessment information, number. Then, we aculeate the evaluation result using triangular fuzzy number, entropy, analytic hierarchy process, and contact number. Last of all, an example is designed and it shows the feasibility and applicability of this model.

The Asymptotic Connect Reliability Analysis of Stochastic Transportation Network

MA Hong-wei, ZHOU Xi-zhao

2015, 24(3):  45-50.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2015.0082

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The topology map of urban transportation network is gained by using the original topological method, the dual graph of the transportation network is gotten by using the dual topology method, and the random network model of transportation network is thus established. The asymptotic connectivity reliability of the transportation network is defined, and what is be gained is the quantitative relationship among road connectivity reliability, scale of the road network, and the connectivity reliability of the entire road network. The conclusions in this paper are proved by combining the random graph theory with law of large numbers, asymptotic methods and so on. Finally, the application value is illustrated through an example.

Manufacturers of Production-Inventory Control Strategy Under Carbon Cap-and-Trade mechanism

JI Shou-feng, LAN Hai-yan, TANG Jin-huan, ZHU Bao-lin

2015, 24(3):  51-59.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2015.0083

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For manufacturers’ carbon emissions in the process ordering, storage and production, we discuss the manufacturers’ strategies of production-inventory control under carbon cap-and-trade mechanism, construct a production-inventory cost model under cap-and-trade mechanism based on mathematical measure of carbon cap-and-trade mechanism, and derive the optimal production quantity and the maximum order multiple of the multi-raw materials with carbon constraints and manufacturer’ optimum production-inventory policy. Computational experiments and numerical analysis show that manufacturer’ order quantity is higher, and the order frequency and production batch are lower under no-carbon constraints, and draw the change trend of decision variables with the three trading price.

Loan-to-Value Ratio Decision on the Retailer’s Inventory Financing under Supplier’s Buy-Back Guarantee

WU Ying-jing, LI Yong-jian

2015, 24(3):  60-67.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2015.0084

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In this paper, a supply chain consisting of a supplier and a retailer is considered. Being a small and medium-sized enterprise, the retailer can’t obtain enough financing by its own credit when facing funding constraints. However, the line of the retailer’s credit can be raised through the supplier’s loan guarantee. By measuring the degree of financing risk-sharing by the buy-back ratio of unsold pledge, partners’ inventory financing decisions are intensively analyzed in this study. The results show that, the buy-back guarantee of the supplier not only increases profit of the bank, but also raises the loan-to-value ratio when certain conditions are satisfied; meanwhile, the retailer’s funding dilemma can be effectively alleviated by the supplier’s buy-back guarantee when the market conditions are optimistic.

Production and Coordination Decisions in Competing Closed-loop Supply Chains with Demand Disruptions

HAN Xiao-hua, WU Hai-yan, WANG Bei

2015, 24(3):  68-78.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2015.0085

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This paper studies the production and coordination decisions in one-manufacturer-two-competing-retailers closed-loop supply chains when facing demand disruptions. The results indicate that the optimal production quantity and return rate have some robustness, while the optimal selling price always changes with demand disruptions. We also find that the centralized decision-maker, manufacturer and retailer prefer to adjust their decisions when facing considerably positive disruptions; the centralized decision–maker and manufacturer also prefer to adjust their decisions, but the retailer tends to maintain original decisions when facing considerably negative disruptions. The coordination of closed-loop supply chain with/without disruptions can be achieved by revenue-sharing contracts, while more profits are required by retailers under markedly negative disruptions.

Pricing Strategies in Dual-channel Supply Chain with Retail Services and Customer Returns

LIU Yong-mei, LIAO Pan, HU Jun-hua, CHEN Xiao-hong

2015, 24(3):  79-87.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2015.0086

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This paper explores the optimal pricing strategies under the centralized and decentralized dual-channel supply chain concerning the retail services and customer returns using the two-stage optimization method and Stackelberg game. We show that the retail services contribute to enhancing the retail’s channel power, and always benefit the manufacturer. However, only when the service level is lower than a certain value can the manufacturer and the retail get Pareto improvement at the same time. The retail prices and direct selling prices are positive related to the returns, but the relationship to the service level is subject to the influence of channel structure. Although improving retail services can reduce retail channel’s returns, returns become the problem that the whole supply chain members need to come together to solve. The retail services exacerbates the “double marginalization” effect of the supply chain, and the manufacturer can mitigate this effect and improve the efficiency of supply chain by reducing return risks with producing products matching consumer needs.

Evolutionary Game Analysis of Local Government and Central Government in Environmental Regulation

PAN Feng, XI Bao, WANG Lin

2015, 24(3):  88-93.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2015.0087

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For the interaction between local government and central government in environmental regulation, the evolutionary process of decision is discussed based on the evolutionary game theory. In this paper, an asymmetric evolutionary game model between local government and central government is established to study the behavioral characteristics of participants in environmental regulation. Behavioral evolutionary law of participants is found out according to the replicator dynamics equation, evolutionarily stable strategy is analyzed, and the related influencing factors are also considered. The results show that the evolutionarily stable strategy of local government and central government is affected by the initial states of environmental regulation system, the cost of environmental regulation of local government, the income of environmental regulation of local government, the cost of supervision of central government, the punishment of central government to local government. The implementation of environmental regulation of local government will be promoted by reducing the cost of supervision, strengthening supervision and punishment to local government, reducing the cost of environmental regulation, increasing the income of environmental regulation, which contributes to the improvement of environmental quality.

Study on the Evolutionary Game of Knowledge Creation Behavior and Organizational Routines and its Simulation

LI Bai-zhou, ZHAO Jian-yu, GUO Tao, SU Yi

2015, 24(3):  94-105.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2015.0088

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Taking evolutionary game model as the main theoretical instrument, this paper constructs the evolutionary game mode of knowledge creation behavior and organizational routines based on the description of the relationship between knowledge creation behavior and organizational routines. With giving solutions to the replication dynamic equation, we analyze the strategies of knowledge creation behavior and organizational routines reaching evolutionary stable equilibria under different situations. Our results show that, the matching of knowledge creation behavior and organizational routines is a dynamic and repeating process of game. Expected income, incentive cost and switching cost involved in the game will directly affect the evolutionary stable equilibrium, as well as the choices of individuals on knowledge creation behavior and organizational routines. However, organizational knowledge creation behavior tends to choose the conservative strategy which mainly focuses on inheriting. The utilization of evolutionary game approach will open up a brand-new perspective for the study of knowledge creation behavior and organization routines, and also provide helpful theoretical support for further exploration into relevant areas.

Method for Multiple Attribute Decision Making with Group Reference Points

ZHANG Xiao, FAN Zhi-ping

2015, 24(3):  106-111.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2015.0089

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A decision analysis method based on prospect theory is proposed to solve the multiple attribute decision making problem with group reference points. First, according to the idea of D-S theory, the group reference point for each attribute is determined by calculating the influence degree of each member’s reference point to the group reference point. Then, based on prospect theory, the group gain matrix and group loss matrix of the decision matrix relative to group reference points are constructed, respectively. Further, the ranking of alternatives can be determined by calculating group prospect values for alternatives. Finally, a practical example is given to illustrate the feasibility of the proposed method.

Contract Decisions Analysis of Guaranteed Savings Energy Performance Contracting Based on Game Theory

XU Xiao-yan, WU Huan-huan

2015, 24(3):  112-119.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2015.0090

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Energy Performance Contracting(EPC)is a kind of energy-saving management mechanism that uses energy costs saved in the future to pay cost of energy-saving project. In guaranteed savings EPC model, energy-consuming clients take the responsibility for project financing, while energy service companies provide a complete set of service for the project and guarantee certain performance to their clients. If the project fails to meet the guaranteed value, the energy service company would pay compensation to the client, otherwise, the client would offer certain reward to the company. A contract parameters decision problem is a basic problem in the application of this model. This paper takes the decision problem of initial project investment, contract period and excess project performance reward in guaranteed savings EPC model as research objectives, establishes a decision-making game model between the client and the energy service company to analyze optimal contract decisions.The results of numerical experiments show that this method can not only benefit both the client enterprises and the energy service companies, but also effectively improve the project return-on-investment rate. And higher energy service companies’ technology level and the client enterprises’ initial energy-consuming level would bring higher energy-saving efficiency.

Variable-weight Based Method for Intuitionistic Triangular Fuzzy Decision Making

YU Gao-feng, LI Deng-feng, QIU Jin-ming

2015, 24(3):  120-126.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2015.0091

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For multi-attribute decision making problems where the attribute values are intuitionistic triangular fuzzy numbers, a new decision making method is developed on the basis of variable-weight vector. Firstly, the concept of triangular intuitionistic fuzzy numbers is introduced, and a new ranking method of triangular intuitionistic fuzzy numbers is presented. Secondly, the triangular intuitionistic fuzzy variable-weight weighted averaging operator and triangular intuitionistic fuzzy variable-weight weighted geometric averaging operator are proposed. Then, a method for multiple attribute decision making based on triangular intuitionistic fuzzy variable-weight aggregation operators is developed. Finally, an illustrative example shows the effectiveness of the proposed approach.

Research into the Risk Decision-making in Selecting and Evaluating New Product Development

YANG Lei, ZHAO Jiu-ru

2015, 24(3):  127-133.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2015.0092

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This paper focuses on risk-decision of investment decision makers for new product development. A mathematical model is established for assessing the value of intelligence information based on Bayesian decision theory to explore the impact risk propensity of investment decision makers, the future market demand of the new product and the cost of intelligence information on the influencing mechanism of investment decision-making. The results help investment decision makers to understand factors and situations when new product is developed. Finally, the model is applied to a high-tech enterprise. The application shows that the conclusion of this paper can provide the basis of decision for enterprises.

Application Research

Composite Service Multi-attribute Selection Method Based on Message Negotiation Under the Web Services Environment

YANG jie, LI Deng-feng, LAI Li-bang

2015, 24(3):  134-141.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2015.0093

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In the web services environment, through the formal description analysis of QoS-aware service selection problem and the message negotiation process, a consultation service selection approach and its specific implementation method are proposed from the view of repeated considering user’s demand. The method can reflect the characteristics of dynamic negotiation and hesitancy degree. At the same time, it can avoid the information loss effectively. Finally, a real web services practical example verifies the feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed.

Research on Design of Creative Idea Transaction Contract Based on the Viewpoint of an Informed Principal

SHI Qing-chun, TUO Xiao-nan, YANG Hui

2015, 24(3):  142-151.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2015.0094

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In order to formalize the signaling revelation problem facing an informed principal and an agent when they sign a contract in the process of creative idea transaction, this paper demonstrates the separate equilibrium existing in contract of creative idea transaction by establishing a Stackelberg signal game model, which is based on the features of creative idea, and an analysis on the effects that the intellectual property protection environment and the industrial maturity respectively have on the equilibrium contract is also made in this research. It is also found that the separating equilibrium contract makes the agent’s efforts distorted downward when adverse selection of the principal and moral hazard of the agent coexist.

An Empirical Research on the Impact Mechanism of Individual Voluntary Supply to Public Employment Service Level

DING Zhao-gang

2015, 24(3):  152-157.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2015.0095

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A functional public employment service system on the basis of the “polycentric governance” framework should be integrated by government supply, and market supply, and voluntary supply, and a mechanism of voluntary supply could be a decent compensation for government supply and market supply. This paper has established a logic regression model to analyse how voluntary supply influences the state of employment. Based on the real data from 3336 questionnaires, the empirical results of the logic regression show that, the voluntary supply has significant positive impact on the state of employment, regardless of the identity of the individual volunteer determined by individual self-selection information or multidimensional behavioral characteristics. Besides, each type of voluntary supply has distinct impact on the state of employment: there are three different types, which consist of “employment information supply”, “job-hunting skills instruction” and “interview skills instruction”, which have significant impacts on the state of employment; on the contrary, “resume writing skills instruction” has no influence.

A Consequence Deduction Model of Emergency Based on One-Dimensional Cellular Automata

RONG Li-li, ZHOU Pei-heng, ZHANG Rong

2015, 24(3):  158-164.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2015.0096

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The consequence of emergencies evolves over time. In order to have a general idea of the developing trend of the consequence, a consequence deduction model of emergency is proposed in this paper. Firstly, concerning the similarities of emergency consequences, a description of the principle of consequence evolution is given from the perspective of hazard bearing body. Then, this paper proposes a consequence deduction model of emergency based on one-dimensional cellular automata and all the properties of the model are built. Finally, the validity of the model is illustrated by two numerical examples. The model can be used for various emergencies and the result can support emergency decision-making.

Grey Physical Input-output Analysis

LI Qiao-xing, LIU Si-feng

2015, 24(3):  165-171.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2015.0097

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Because national economy is complex, we can not obtain the exact values of input and output of every product as we utilize the physical input-output analysis. By using grey system theory, we propose grey physical input-output analysis and get the covered solution formulas of grey model and grey coefficients. The grey physical input-output analysis can dispose the situation that the statistic datum are intervals, and the decision-makers can analyze, forecast and control the economic system under the uncertain situation, and the ability to resist risk can be improved. The modified case illustrates our method.

Study on Logistics Performance Evaluation Based on Cross-efficiency DEA and Entropy IAHP Method

YANG De-quan, XUE Yun-xia

2015, 24(3):  172-178.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2015.0098

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Based on the study of the existing literatures on the performance evaluation of logistics enterprises, we present the cross-efficiency DEA and entropy IAHP method. Super-efficiency DEA is used to choose the weights of the efficiency value only when the weighs are in the most advantageous position to a decision making unit, which neglects the fairness. IAHP method has the drawback of larger subjective judgments while evaluating performance. The central idea of the cross-efficiency DEA theory is adopted from the peer assessment system. Ignoring the fairness, the super-efficiency DEA method just chooses weights which are favorable for a decision making unit. This drawback can be compensated by cross-efficiency DEA method. Entropy IAHP method is the combination of the entropy method determining weights justly and the IAHP method reflecting the decision makers’ preference. We present the basic steps of the cross-efficiency DEA and IAHP model when evaluating performance of logistics enterprises. In the end, the applicability and superiority of the method is illustrated by using a real case study.

Empirical Study of Calendar Spread Arbitrage in Chinese Future Market

ZHU Li-rong, SU Xin, ZHOU Yong

2015, 24(3):  179-188.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2015.0099

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It is very convenient to make arbitrage in future market because the future market is very different from the stock market, and there exists natural shorting mechanism in future market. Therefore, this paper primarily focuses on the future market in China and conducts an empirical study of the calendar spread arbitrage strategy. Firstly, we introduce relative theory of calendar spread arbitrage and propose an operable set of strategies in arbitrage trading. Secondly, based on this trading strategy, we conduct some empirical analysis of 15 kinds of combinations of cotton future, which is listed in Zhengzhou Commodities Exchange. Finally, we analyze the number of calendar spread arbitrage opportunity, yield of rate, the number of hedge being unwind, the number of physical delivery, the management of position, the amount of additional margin funds and so on. Hence, we can get a conclusion that the models and strategies in calendar spread arbitrage are feasible in our future market.

Financial Early-warning Based on Variable Precision Weighted Average Roughness Decision Tree

BAO Xin-zhong, FU Hong-yu

2015, 24(3):  189-196.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2015.0100

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Traditional researches usually divide the samples into ST and non-ST for the financial status. We use clustering methods to divide sample companies into 5 categories, namely, healthy, good, general, warning and crisis. This five-level classification may be more reasonable and practical than the traditional two-level classification. Meanwhile, 33 financial indicators are reduced into 9 ones based on the indicator correlations and the significance. The reduced indicaor system and the five-level financial status are used to construct the decision tree, which makes the process more reasonable. Then, we regard variable precision-weighted average roughness as the method of selecting branch properties, and each time select minimum of them as branch properties. Thus generated decision tree can avoid the detailed classification of a small amount of special categories data and improve the ability of anti-noise. This method is less complex and can effectively improve the classification results. The empirical study proves to have good results by using it in the early-warning of financial distress.

An Improved Critical Chain Project Scheduling Method in the Perspective of Robustness

ZHANG Jing-wen, LIU Geng-tao

2015, 24(3):  197-204.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2015.0101

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We investigate some puzzles in practice from the traditional critical chain method (CCM), and several correcting measures are put forward. Three pitfalls of the CCM are pointed out in this paper. Firstly, the baseline schedules are not unique. Secondly, the effect of feeding buffers fails because of the improper means to identify non-critical chains. Thirdly, the existing ways, which are used to eliminate the second resource conflicts resulting from the insertion of feeding buffers, deviate from the nature role of feeding buffers. Accordingly, based on the thought of robust optimization, three solutions are respectively presented to overcome the three drawbacks by integrating theoretical analyses and case interpretations. Therefore, a new critical chain project scheduling method is formed based on the three aspects of improvements on the traditional CCM. The results show that our new CCM can provide the scientific instructions for project managers when they adopt the CCM in reality.

Empirical Study on the Space Effect of Service Industry Agglomeration and Economic Growth on China’s Urbanization ——Based on Semi-parametric Spatial Lag Model

YE A-zhong, CHEN Sheng-ming, FENG Feng

2015, 24(3):  205-211.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2015.0102

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The existing literature about urbanization generally ignores the problem with the Agglomeration effect of the service industry as well as how economic growth influences the urbanization nonlinearly. According to the situation of China, this paper uses the semi-parametric spatial lag model to explain these two issues empirically. The results are as follows: A, the development of service industry and its spatial spillover effects promote the urbanization significantly. It brings the influence which has even surpassed the industrialization. Agglomeration of the province’s service industry has a promoting effect on the province’s urbanization, and agglomeration of the second industry output has an inhibitory effect on the province’s urbanization. B, economic growth has different effects on urbanization for different regions. Generally,economic growth contributes to the promotion of urbanization, especially in central China and the developed coastal area. However, in some highly developed areas, like Zhejiang, Shanghai and Tianjin,the effect begins to weaken, and even shows itself negatively. C, semi-parametric model of spatial lag works better than the parameter model in goodness of fit. The model effectively elaborates the characteristic of spatial correlation and nonlinear in China’s urbanization phenomenon.

A Gray System Modeling Based Empirical Study on the Relationship Between Disposable Income and Consumption of Shanghai City Residents

SHAO Min-zhi

2015, 24(3):  212-218.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2015.0103

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This paper analyzes the change regulation of grey marginal propensity to consumption of different income groups by establishing the relationship GM(0,2)group between the different income levels and corresponding consumer spending. Further analysis of the driving action of disposable income on consumer spending and study of the relational system coordination between disposable income and consumer spending are illustrated through modeling GM(1,2). Through the comparison among the parameters of the models between income and spending in different periods, the dynamic changes of marginal propensity to consumption within the income groups of different levels is discussed, and the limitation of the model research is effectively improved.

Quality Evaluation on Tobacco Leaf Based on Rough Set Theory: A View of Usability

TAN Xu, MAO Tai-tian, ZOU Kai

2015, 24(3):  219-226.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2015.0104

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By digesting new requirements and influencing factors of tobacco leaf quality in modern cigarette industry, a novel comprehensive evaluation index system of tobacco leaf quality under the view of usability is built up. Regarding the complexity and diversity of index data and the particularity of problem through the assessment, we try to extend Pawlak rough set model to a new kind of rough set model based on upper-lower similarity relation, and construct an intelligent rough set model for tobacco leaf quality evaluation under the view of usability in further. In this way, objective index weights calculated by historical data without prior knowledge and subjective index weights based on expert experiences, are put forward to reach the dynamic understanding of tobacco leaf usability. So, it’s the first time we’ve tried to apply and express the concept of usability in a quantitative way. At the end of this paper, a flavorful tobacco leaf selection example is given to prove the feasibility and superiority.

Management Science

Research into the Stage Characteristics of Innovation Evolution and Its Simulation during Innovative Companies’ Growth

LI Jian-gang, LI Bing-xiang

2015, 24(3):  227-233.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2015.0105

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Based on the analysis of the growth process of innovation companies, this paper explores the stage characteristics of innovation evolution during innovative companies’ growth, proposes the assumptions about stage characteristics of innovation evolution during innovative companies’ growth, thus makes simulation verification by means of system dynamics model. It concludes that technology innovation plays key and sustainable roles in the whole process of innovative companies’ growth, management and market innovation have significant roles in expansion period, and organization innovation has a significant influence during strength period. Lastly it emphasizes the necessary impact of collaborative innovation companies’ growth during sustainable innovation period.

Pricing Strategies of Operating System Platform from the Perspective of Two-Sided Markets

XING Ming-qing

2015, 24(3):  234-239.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2015.0106

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The emergence of more and more influential open-source operating system platforms (such as Linux) tremendously impacts the traditional proprietary operating system platforms(such as Microsoft’s Windows). Based on two-sided markets framework, this paper studies the pricing strategies of proprietary platform in the face of competition from open-source platforms. It finds that the proprietary platform’s pricing structure of charging users and subsiding for application software developers is decided by the relative strength of cross network externalities between users and application software products, the additional costs(such as higher learning and maintenance costs)and benefits(such as individuation and better stability)when users use open-source platform relative to proprietary platform will indirectly affect proprietary platform’s pricing strategies, and proprietary platform’s pricing structures may differ compared with the case of proprietary platform monopolizing. Moreover, this difference depends on the gap between the additional costs and benefits when users use open-source platform relative to proprietary platform.

Research on the Method of Service Innovation of Service-oriented Manufacturing Enterprise Based on Product and Service Fusion

HE Zheng, CHEN Ju-hong

2015, 24(3):  240-247.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2015.0107

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In order to improve the service innovation capability of service-oriented manufacturing enterprise, promote the enterprise to make better service innovation, the method of service innovation based on product and service fusion is put forward, the concept of product and service fusion is analyzed, and the product or service modules are identified by association rule algorithm, On this basis, the concept of new product service system is developed, these modules are mutually fused through modularity, and the new product service system is designed. Finally, an application example is given to illustrate the application process of the method. The method can provide various services for customers, which is more flexible for meeting the individual needs of different customers.

Analysis and Simulation of the Knowledge Diffusion Mechanism within Industrial Clusters Based on Epidemic Model

HU Xu-hua, CHEN Li-zhen, LV Kui

2015, 24(3):  248-257.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2015.0108

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A model is analyzed to reveal the knowledge diffusion mechanism of the industry cluster based on epidemic model. Knowledge is the main resource of the competitive advantage of industry clusters. It is assumed that there are two kinds of enterprises(the big enterprises and the small enterprises)within the clusters. After a systematic review of the literature, a knowledge diffusion mechanism of the industry clusters is structured. The general expression of the reproductive number is calculated, and the existence and stabilization of the knowledge diffusion equilibrium are verified. With the theoretical derivation and simulation, it is revealed that the contact rate, learning success rate and proportion of the two kinds of enterprises will influence the knowledge diffusion reproductive number and the equilibrium point. The knowledge diffusion reproductive number is reduced with the increase of the large enterprise proportion, so is the activeness of knowledge communication in industrial clusters.

Analysis of Bidder Collusion in First-Price Sealed-Bid Auction ——based on “Strong” Cartel Mechanism of First-Price Pre-auction Knockout

LIN Han-mi, SUN Shao-rong

2015, 24(3):  258-265.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2015.0109

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The existing researches of bidder collusion in first-price sealed-bid auction have many constraints that do not conform to the reality. In view of this, by the assumption that cartels include only a partial of the bidders, collusive and non-collusive members whose value are independent,continuous and asymmetric will respond strategically to each other on bidding, this paper gets the optimal bidding price of collusive members and non-collusive members and the optimal reserve price of the auctioneer. As a result, bidding strategy of collusive and non-collusive members is not only decided by their own valuations, the numbers of bidders, the number of collusive members, but also the valuations of the other side. Optimal reserve price is related to valuation distribution of collusive and non-collusive members.

The Difficult Problems in Time Claims

ZHANG Li-hui, XIONG Jun, LIU Shu-liang, QI Jian-xun

2015, 24(3):  266-274.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2015.0110

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According to the division of responsibility about time claims in major projects scheduling, the anomalies in the time claims are found in this paper based on the actual case in highway construction. Firstly, it reveals that there will be a fine when the activity is fulfilled ahead of time; secondly, there will be a reward when the critical activity is compressed to a certain threshold. However, there will be a fine when the amount of compression is larger than the threshold; and finally, the method and interpretation are presented to solve and analyze these anomalies. These anomalies explain that the new rule must be considered when the time limit for a project claim contribution occurs in major projects. The conclusions of the research have certain theoretical significance and practical significance for promoting time claims.

Improvement of Portfolio Models Research: An Empirical Study of Corporate Social Responsibility

QI Yue, LIN Long

2015, 24(3):  275-287.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2015.0111

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In this paper, we study corporate social responsibility(CSR)through the prism of investors in the process of portfolio. In order to study CSR, we extend traditional portfolio model to five objectives portfolio selection model by adding CSR index as objective functions in Markowitz mean-variance. We extend traditional utility function and prove that the new function is efficient. We measure the typical corporate CSR performance by the mainstream evaluation criteria. The new model has five objectives which include expected returns, variance, the core stakeholders, dormant stakeholders and edge stakeholders. We formulate portfolio by selecting 10 points on the surface of the minimum variance portfolio. The multi-objective formulation is tested by randomly choosing nondominated portfolios with out-of-sample data to testify efficiency. We find that part of portfolio returns are significantly higher than market returns in the same period. It shows that the formulation can not only help investors to control the CSR directly, but also prove the advantage by actual data, which can provide one method and an idea for investors who focus on CSR.