Table of Content

12 August 2015, Volume 24 Issue 4

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Theory Analysis and Methodology Study

Decision Programming for Emergency Repair of Terminal Power Supply Facilities under Natural Disaster Circumstances

YU Ming-lu, LI Xiang-yang, YUE Guo-jun

2015, 24(4):  1-8.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2015.0112

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Natural disasters cause fuzzy information and negative emotion problems in emergency decision making. Based on prospect theory and the effects of negative emotions on emergency decision making in natural disaster, this research is focused on decision programming for emergency repair of power grid under fuzzy information. It builds a value function with emotional prospect theory, and adopts the idea of inverse function to set up an estimating function to reveal the relations between decision makers’ perceived value of fuzzy information and its actual value, as a method of its value estimation, and then uses it to establish the decision model for emergency repair of terminal power supply facilities. At last it conducts online decision experiments by a self-developed experimental system of this emergency repair decision, to verify the estimating functions and decision model.

A Multi-stage Conflict Style Large Group Decision-making Emergency Method Based on Interval Fuzzy Number

XU Xuan-hua, CAI Chen-guang, CHEN Xiao-hong

2015, 24(4):  9-15.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2015.0113

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For the multi-period large group emergency decision-making problem that stage weights are unknown and preference information is interval fuzzy number(IFNs), a new group decision-making method is proposed. Firstly,the similarity formula between INs is given, and each stage preference information is clustered by this formula. Then,the trelative entropy method is used to determine cluster weights and stage weights. The alternatives ranking result is obtained based on the comprehensive group preference, and the best alterative is selected. Finally, an example shows the effectiveness and practicability of this method.

A Calculation Method for Entropy Weight of Emergency Attributes Based on Interval Multi-attribute Decision Making

MA Xiao-fei, ZHONG Qiu-yan, QU Yi

2015, 24(4):  16-22.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2015.0114

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Real-time data of emergencies are the basis of emergency decision making. Better capacity of data handling, exacting entropy weights of emergency attributes, and filtering critical attributes which reflect the development trend of emergencies are keys to improving efficiency and accuracy of decision making. First, this paper shows a way that uses common knowledge model to structurally represent emergency and its attributes. Then the monitoring data of emergency attributes are converted to interval numbers with the method of interval multi-attribute decision making referred. Consequently, dimension of the data decreases while this way keeps temporal order information. Besides, the emergency attributes are transformed into cost-type attributes by means of defining the distance of data and interval, and entropy weights of emergency attributes are calculated by utilizing the method of interval multi-attribute decision-making based on entropy weight. The higher the entropy weight, the more the information which contains the trend of emergency, and this kind of attributes is more important. Finally, an example is given to illustrate effectiveness and practicality of the method.

Multi-attribute Decision Making Method Based on Interval-valued Rough Intuitionistic Fuzzy Number

YU Gao-feng, LIU Wen-qi

2015, 24(4):  23-29.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2015.0115

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Interval-valued rough intuitionistic fuzzy number is investigated. Some operational laws of interval-valued rough intuitionistic fuzzy numbers are defined and some related properties are researched, and the weighted arithmetic average operator and weighted geometric average operator for the interval-valued rough intuitionistic fuzzy numbers are given. The score function and accurate function of rough intuitionistic fuzzy numbers are defined, and then an approach for ranking interval-valued rough intuitionistic fuzzy numbers is presented. The model of multi-attribute decision making is constructed based on interval-valued rough intuitionistic fuzzy numbers. The corresponding method of decision making is proposed. The example analysis shows the effectiveness of the method.

Interval Grey Numbers Emergency Decision-making Methods Based on MYCIN Uncertainty Factor

JIANG Feng-guang, LI Peng, CHEN Li-wen

2015, 24(4):  30-35.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2015.0116

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This paper focuses mainly on emergency decision-making problems when attribute values of corresponding alternatives are interval grey numbers. The MYCIN certainty factor is integrated into grey decision-making theory. By computing the certainty factor of all alternatives in different indices and fusion of them, the best alternative is obtained. Emergency decision-making method based on evidence reasoning is established and the procedure of interval grey numbers decision-making is presented. Finally,an example is given to illustrate the efficiency of the approach proposed in this paper.

Multi-attribute Decision Making Mode of Dynamic Alliance Partner Selection Based on Fuzzy

SUN Sheng-lan

2015, 24(4):  36-40.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2015.0117

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According to the characteristics of fuzzy decision for partner selection process of open innovation and considering the different decision makers who have the credibility of different decision, this paper proposes a multiple attributes decision making model for dynamic alliance partner selection of open innovation. Firstly, a description of the multiple attributes decision making problem is given. Then, in accordance with the prominent characteristic of the method and considering the different decision makers to understand a problem with different weight, it improves TOPSIS. Finally, the validity and feasibility of the proposed method are explained by a numerical example.

Coordination of Differential Price Closed-Loop Supply Chain with Dual Sale Channels under Production Cost Disruptions

LI Xin-ran, HE Qi

2015, 24(4):  41-51.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2015.0118

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This paper develops a two-part tariff contract model in one-manufacture-two-competitive-retailers closed-loop supply chain(CLSC)which sells new and remanufactured products by different retailers and in different prices. Then, we consider optimal decisions of centralized dual-channel differential price CLSC under the situation that the cost of new and remanufactured products is disturbed simultaneously, and improve the two-part tariff contract to coordinate the CLSC under cost disruption. The results indicate that compared with the centralized decision under normal environment, the optimal adjustment plans of new and remanufactured products are not only related to the extent of the cost disruption, but also related to the substitute coefficient of the two products. Moreover, the improved two-part tariff contract can finally coordinate the CLSC under cost disruption by sharing risks among members.

Effect of Capacity Constraint on Choice of Collecting Channels in Closed-loop Supply Chain

SHU Mi, NIE Jia-jia

2015, 24(4):  52-57.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2015.0119

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We develop three Stackelberg models with capacity constraints in order to study decisions of collecting used products in closed-loop supply chain. By comparing the product return rate, retail price, profits of the manufacturer and retailer in the different channel models, we find that with capacity constraint, the product return rate is the highest in the manufacturer-collecting model. It is significantly different in the situation without capacity constraint. If the transfer price of returned product is low, the profit of the remanufacturer and retailer, and supply chain will be the highest in the manufacturer-collecting model, and the retail price will be the lowest in this model; if the transfer price of returned product is high, the retail price will be the lowest and remanufacturer’s profit the highest in the retailer-collecting model. So the best choice for the manufacturer is retailer-collecting.

Pricing Mechanism Based on Market Demand Increases in the Dual-Channel Closed-loop Supply Chain

LI Xiang-rong , ZHANG Ke-yong

2015, 24(4):  58-67.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2015.0120

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According to the popularity of the phenomenon that more and more manufacturers are opening up online sales channels, the paper constructs the models that the manufacturer and retailer price in decentralized or centralized decision, considering the potential demand from the double channel sales. And then the paper solves and analyzes the models by using the game theory. The study shows that the manufacturer’s wholesale, retailer’s sales prices increase and recycling prices decline with the increasing rate of demand, and at the same time the total supply chain profit decreases firstly and then increases in both models. Finally, the paper verifies and discusses the influence that increases market demand from the double channel sales on the pricing strategy, profits and channel efficiency in closed-loop supply chain by using the numerical examples, and additionally it finds that the potential demand from the double channel sales has a significant positive impact on the efficiency of the closed-loop supply chain.

Emergency Resource Allocation Model for Urban Public Facility Accidents

LIU Jin-yuan, LI Yao, YAN Kai

2015, 24(4):  68-75.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2015.0121

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In the face of urban public facility accidents, mobilizing resources quickly and making them arrive at accident location as soon as possible is of great importance to promote social development and maintain social stability. According to the characteristics of urban public facility accidents and the basic idea of multi-objective programming, a multi-objective programming emergency resource allocation model is proposed and proved to be useful after simulated experiment. This model not only can achieve allocation emergency resources effectively, but also provide theoretical guidance for related departments.

Optimization and Visualization of Multiple 3D Container Loading Problem with Non-identical Items

ZHAO Narisa, HAN Qi-wei, LIN Zheng-kui

2015, 24(4):  76-82.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2015.0122

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In order to solve the three-dimensional heterogeneous multiple container loading problems with seven realistic constraints, we propose a heuristic search algorithm based on “block” and “space”. The algorithm uses a tree search strategy, according to the available space, evaluating each cargo block to assess the best one, until no free space or cargo is loaded. The open standards-based test data results show that the algorithm is superior to existing similar studies in time and volume utilization. Furthermore, we develop a 3D visualization loading software, and it has been applied to the logistics business to verify the practicability of the algorithm.

A Robust Optimization Model for Multi-Responses Based On Desirability Function Approach and the Empirical study

LIU Yu-min, ZHAO Li-xiao

2015, 24(4):  83-91.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2015.0123

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As the traditional comprehensive desirability model considers less of niose factors in the study for multi-responses, noise factors have been introduced into the traditional comprehensive desirability model in the paper to improve the previous one for analyging robust optimization. Firstly, response surface models of the multiple quality characteristics including controlled factors and noised factors have been conducted; secondly, based on the traditional comprehensive desirability model, we integrate multiple quality characteristics of response surface models with the improved desirability model; finally, S/N ratio has been used as an indicator of measuring robustness and optimization for the improved desirability model. The empirical study shows that the improved desirability model can be effectively conducted and can find ideal parameter combination with the help of S/N ratio.

Research on the Optimization of the Recipe for Product Oil Blending

LIU Guo-li, YE Tong, WANG Gui-ling, ZHAO Jun

2015, 24(4):  92-96.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2015.0124

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Product oil blending is an important step for oil refining, which directly affects the economic benefits of oil refineries. Using petrochemical industry as background, this paper does a research on the optimization of the recipe for product oil blending. A mixed-integer programming model is developed to minimize the total production cost of the refinery on the condition that product quality indexes are satisfied, and an efficient solving strategy based on genetic algorithm is proposed. Then a simulation experiment is made according to the actual production data of an oil refinery and the balance relationship between the inventory cost and the setup cost is showed bycomputational results. To be specific, the total inventory cost increases and the number of setups decreases, when the unit inventory cost remaines constant and the unit setup cost increases. Conversely, the number of setups increases and the total inventory cost decreases, when the unit setup cost remaines constant and the unit inventory cost increases.

Optimizing the Model of Quantity Putting into Production Based on Product Pass Rate Randomly Distributed

ZHANG Bi-xi, XIE Xiang-tian

2015, 24(4):  97-104.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2015.0125

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When the product pass rate is randomly distributed, we build up the decision-making model of quantity putting into production, which is with total loss (insufficient production and then putting into production again charges, excess output charges and unqualified handling charges) expected value as the objective function, quantity putting into production as the decision variables. We sdve the optimal solution of the model with uniform distribution or normal distribution, and obtain equation between production and cast production, which effectively guide the production plan. Finally, we use a numerical example to prove the model is valid.

The Optimal Replenishment Strategy for Perishable and Off-price Products with Stock-dependent and Capacity Constraint

HE Wei, XU Fu-yuan

2015, 24(4):  105-110.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2015.0126

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For improving sales performance, multi-items are often selected for promotion. Off-price item is closely related to people’s daily life. We discuss the inventory problem of perishable and off-price items with stock-dependent demand rate. Some customers are more impatient to wait, therefore the sale opportunity is reduced and a bigger shortage leads to a larger loss. The existence of the optimal solution to the model is discussed, and a search algorithm of the optimal order strategy is provided. Simulation experiments are presented to illustrate the model and the main parameters are carried out.

Improvement of Bellman-Ford Algorithm Based on the Fixed Order

HAN Wei-yi

2015, 24(4):  111-115.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2015.0127

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The fixed order algorithm is one of basic improved algorithms on the classic Bellman-Ford algorithm. In view of its inferiority in the sparse directed graph, the algorithm is improved by presenting the computational order of vertices in advance. The experiments show that the improved algorithm is faster than the original one by 50% in the sparse directed graph approximately. Moreover, it is compared with the FIFO algorithm, which is the most attractive basic improved algorithm of Bellman-Ford algorithm at present. It means that the fixed order algorithm is very competitive in both the large-scale dense directed graph and the sparse directed graph.

Common Due-window Assignment and Scheduling Problems with Deteriorating Jobs

LIU Chun-lai, WANG Jian-jun, ZHAO Chuan-li

2015, 24(4):  116-121.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2015.0128

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This paper is devoted to a scheduling problem with simple linear deterioration, that is, the processing time of a job is a simple linear function of its starting time and its deterioration rate. We consider the common due-window assignment problem for the single machine and two machine flow shop. The goal is to schedule the jobs and the due-window so as to minimize the highest cost among all the jobs. The objective function contains four cost components: earliness, tardiness, due-window starting time and size. By analyzing the properties of the optimal schedule, we obtain the due-window starting time and size. For the single machine and two-machine flow shop problems, we present a polynomial time solution respectively. Moreover, some special cases of the single machine are also discussed in detail.

Optimizing Location and Pricing Policies in Competitive Flow Interception Problem

SHENG Rui-ling, HUO Jia-zhen, WANG Qian

2015, 24(4):  122-127.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2015.0129

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We present the model of optimizing the location and pricing for a firm entering a competitive market in a flow interception problem. The entering firm charges uniform mill price and aims at finding the locations and price to optimize its overall profit. The competitor, on the other hand, can react by adjusting its price with the objective of maximizing its own profit. We define the utility functions, and a probability of customers on each path patronizing the facility is described by a Huff-like model. A heuristic algorithm is presented. We also analyze the benefit of the entering firm gains considering the competitor’s reaction.

Mixed-integer Non-linear Program Model of Dynamic Supplier Selection under Fuzzy Environment

CHEN Hao-dong, WANG Zhi-ping, CHEN Yan

2015, 24(4):  128-136.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2015.0130

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Business of any organization is continuous process and therefore supplier selection problem is dynamic in nature. And firm’s demand and supplier’s capacity for each part changes over time due to market fluctuation and customer demand. Thus supplier selection problem is also fuzzy in real practice. Based on dynamic and fuzziness in nature on supplier selection problem, considering supplier’s capacity and manufacturer’s demand for fuzzy variables in every time period, in this paper, the supplier selection problem for multi-period, multi-parts, and multi-source is considered as a 0-1 mixed integer fuzzy dynamic non-linear programming problem, objective function is minimization of total costs. And then a 0-1 mixed integer fuzzy dynamic non-linear program model is proposed. In order to solve this fuzzy dynamic model, the model is transformed into a deterministic 0-1 mixed integer dynamic non-linear model by converting fuzzy chance constraints to their respective deterministic equivalent formulation by Credibility Theory. A numerical example is illustrated to show that the proposed model is feasible and effective.

The Pebbling Number of Multi-fan Graphs and Graham’s Conjecture

WANG Yan-qiu,YE Yong-sheng

2015, 24(4):  137-140.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2015.0131

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The pebbling number of a graph G,f(G) , is the least n, no matter how n pebbles are placed on the vertices of G, a pebble can be moved to any vertex by a sequence of pebbling moves. A pebbling move consists of the removal of two pebbles vertex and the placement of one of those two pebbles on an adjacent vertex. Graham conjectured that for any connected graphs G and H,f(G×H)f(G)f(H) . Multi-fan graph F_n1,n2,…,nm is a joint-graph P₁∨(P_n1∪P_n2∪…∪P_nm) with n₁+n₂+…+n_m+1 vertices. This paper shows that f(F_n1,n2,…,nm)= n₁+n₂+…+n_m+2 and F_n1,n2,…,nm with the 2-pebbling property. Graham’s conjecture holds of a multi-fan graphs by a graph with the 2-pebbling property. As a corollary, Graham’s conjecture holds when G and H are multi-fan graphs.

Application Research

Impact of Driver Behavior on Capacity at the Signalized Intersections

WU Teng-yu, XU Yin-feng, ZHANG Heng

2015, 24(4):  141-147.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2015.0132

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When the conflicts between the left-turn vehicles and the through vehicles have happened at the signalized intersection, we consider different driver behaviors and divide the drivers into two types: the following driver and the humility driver, and build a model of the left-turn vehicles going through the intersection. The impact on the intersection’s capacity by the different driver behavior is studied. The results show that when all the drivers are the following drivers, with the increase of the traffic flow, the capacity of the intersection decreases sharply. When all the drivers are the humility drivers, considering the situation that the policeman directs traffic, the capacity of the intersection will be better. These results can explain the reason for the blocking of the intersections at the heavy traffic time in China well. We can improve the capacity of the intersections by changing the driver behavior and by directing traffic by a policeman.

Simulation Study on Northwest China’s National Economic Policy Based on CGE Model

GUO Jie, LIU Zi-chen

2015, 24(4):  148-154.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2015.0133

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The lack of simulation evaluation method for China’s National economic policies is a problem of test of economic policy’s validation. In this paper, national economic policy evaluation model based on CGE and general transfer payment policy simulate system is presented, and some analysis results are obtained, such as policy influence on economic factors in the west of China and comparison and contrast with areas in the east coast. Policy modeling and simulation analysis in this paper provide some policy decision support to general transfer payment policy in China’s western development strategy.

Evaluation and Analysis of Regional Innovation Ability in China Based on Overall Entropy Method

PAN Xiong-feng, LIU Qing, PENG Xiao-xue

2015, 24(4):  155-162.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2015.0134

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On the basis of the improved FP&S and H&M’s analytical framework of innovation ability, the paper establishes the analytical framework of regional innovation ability based on enterprise level from the dimensions of innovation environment, innovation resource, innovation achievement and innovation brand. With this improved analytical framework as the theoretical base, the paper builds the evaluation index system of regional innovation ability based on enterprise level, introduces an overall thinking to establish the overall entropy method, and then dynamically analyzes the enterprises’ innovation ability of Jing-jin-ji area, Yangtz river delt area, South coastal area and Northeast area from 2008 to 2012. The results of this research provides important references for recognizing enterprise’ innovation ability of each economic area in China.

Optimal Pricing in an Asymmetric Transportation Market with Empty Equipment Repositioning

ZHANG Xiao-juan, ZHANG Sheng-hao, WANG Wei-na

2015, 24(4):  163-171.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2015.0135

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This paper studies how to price transportation service between two locations in monopoly and duopoly markets, respectively. Because equipment is necessary in facilitating the transportation service, the cost of empty equipment repositioning is inevitable when the realized demands along opposite directions are unbalanced. In case of a monopoly market, we derive the optimal pricing strategy and identify the range of unbalanced potential demands under which the firm achieves balanced realized demands. In case of a duopoly market, we assume that two competing firms have different potential demands along the same transportation direction. The Bertrand competition is analyzed and the optimal pricing strategy is derived. We find that profit may be higher when firms reposition some empty equipment, which implies it is unnecessary to achieve balanced realized demands on purpose. Furthermore, profit decreases with unit loaded equipment movement cost and competition intensity, and increases with unit empty equipment repositioning cost, price sensitivity and the asymmetric degree of two firms’ potential demands.

Supply Risk Evaluation Method Considering Risk Propagation

ZHANG Chuan, YANG Wen-wen, YU Chao

2015, 24(4):  172-177.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2015.0136

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In this paper, a method for supply risk evaluation based on Bayesian network is proposed to solve the supply risk evaluation problem considering the risk propagation. In this method, firstly, a Bayesian network is constructed via identifying key risk factors which may cause the supply risk of each node enterprise. According to Bayes formula, the probability of supply risk considering the risk propagation is calculated. On this basis, supply risk is evaluated considering the risk propagation. Finally, a numerical example is used to illustrate the feasibility and validity of the proposed method.

Influence of Banks’ Branch Scales on the Competition of Banks’ Wealth Management Market

XU Zhen-ye, ZENG Yong

2015, 24(4):  178-187.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2015.0137

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Branches are banks’ main channel to sell their wealth management products. Branch scale not only directly affects banks’ market share and income, but also influences banks’ strategies and competitive structure of market through banks’ risk-taking behaviors. This paper considers the wealth management products of equities and establishes a competition model among banks’ branches. Through comparative static analysis of the equilibrium, this paper finds that banks’ branch scale affects its expected yield of wealth management product and that the bank with small branch scale is inclined to adopt more radical competitive strategy (higher expected yield) to expand its living space, i.e. there exists a phenomenon of yield premium. However, the risk-taking behavior of the bank with small branch scale has a limited influence on competition, while the behavior of the bank with large branch scale has a notable influence, that is. banks’ branch scales affect the degree of competition influenced by the risk of underlying asset in wealth management products. The analysis and conclusions of this paper can bring some theoretical explanations to the current development and characteristics in Chinese wealth management market.

Quality Performance Upgrading Paths Optimization Based on Projection Pursuit, RAGA, NK and GERT: Explaining Framework of Setting Organizational Quality Specific Immunity and Product Life Cycle as Main Logic

SHI Li-ping, LIU Qiang, JIA Ya-nan, YU Xin-qi

2015, 24(4):  188-197.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2015.0138

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On the basis of relevant theories of organizational immunity and organizational quality specific immunity, this study introduces situational variables of product life cycle to construct theory framework of quality performance upgrading paths based on organizational quality monitoring, quality defense hard elements and soft elements, quality memory. And this study employs projection pursuit model based on RAGA, adaptive landscape, NK model to make an empirical analysis of quality performance upgrading paths in different stages of products life cycle, and the empirical results indicate that different stages of product life cycle have different quality performance upgrading paths, quality performance upgrading path in the introduction stage of product is that OQM→OQF→OQME, quality performance upgrading path in the growth stage of product is that OQFS→ OQFH→OQM→OQME, quality performance upgrading path in the maturity stage of product is that OQFH→OQFS→OQM→OQME, quality performance upgrading path in the recession stage of product is that OQME→OQM→OQF. This study further establishes quality performance upgrading paths optimization GERT network of different stages of product life cycle, optimizes quality performance upgrading paths of different stages of product life cycle.

Dynamic Demand Forecast of Maritime Emergency Response Resources Based on Wavelet Neural Network

ZHANG Wen-fen, YANG Jia-qi

2015, 24(4):  198-205.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2015.0139

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For the past few, ocean exploitation and maritime industry have developed rapidly, creating considerable economic and social benefits. Maritime accidents are frequent, and emergency resource demand is complex. This paper attempts to apply wavelet theory into maritime emergency management, predicting the number of maritime accidents in the future in the use of wavelet neural network (WNN) model. Based on the prediction of marine accidents, combined with factors ,such as the type of emergency resources ,the degree of waters risk and monthly average risk factor, the dynamic demand forecast model of emergency resource is built predicting the requirements indirectly. At last, the paper takes the Shandong maritime jurisdiction as example to verify the effectiveness and feasibility of the method.

Oil Resource Tax Rate Research Based on the Oil Price Fluctuation and Resource and Environment Compensation on Data from Shandong Province

GAO Xin-wei, DUAN Shi-yun

2015, 24(4):  206-212.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2015.0140

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The absence of general management policy about oil price, resource and environment causes the serious problems of oil externality. Setting specific oil resource taxation under different oil price levels is the key to realize general management about oil price, resource and environment to solve the problem of oil externality. Based on the data of oil exploitation in Shandong Province from 2000 to 2013, this paper has employed the user cost method to calculate the cost of resource depletion, and found that the current resource tax and fee rate should be raised by about 14%. Based on the ecological environment cost of Shandong Province by the ecological compensation standard model, we find that the ecological environment compensation level should increase from 22% to complete compensation. Secondly, according to the value of reciprocity setting on resource ecological environment compensation equation, when the oil price is located on the level of (23~52), (52~78), (78~115) dollars per barrel, the dynamic compensation tax rate should be 17.51%, 18.84% and 19.04% respectively under the fixed discount rate of 7%. Finally, in order to guarantee the implementation of new taxation policy, we give the countermeasures and suggestions from the perspective of setting tax, duty and regulatory system to mitigate the pressure of resource and environment to establish the long-term mechanism of resource compensation.

E-DEA Model Based on the Electric Energy Saving and its Application

JIANG Bing, ZHANG Jun-ping, LIANG Chang-yong

2015, 24(4):  213-218.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2015.0141

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According to the concept of total factor energy efficiency, the E-DEA model based on electrical energy saving is structured mainly considering power input constraint. The objective function is maximizing difference between the output ratio and the electrical energy input ratio. In the constraint conditions, reducing the radial electrical energy input and increasing radial output are also stressed in addition to general constraints. According to the model optimal solutions, the judgment criterion of efficiency, inefficiency, weak efficiency and electricity scale returns status is given and decision making unit improvement corresponding to various effectiveness is defined. Take 21 general equipment manufacturing composed by the enterprise scale above in Hefei as example,average annual assets, employees, electric power, other energy and carbon dioxide emissions are chosen as input index, main business income as output index from the second national economic census, and their electrical energy utilization efficiency are empirically analyzed. By analyzing the electrical energy utilization efficiency, potential power quantity can being saved and potential main business income can be increased, and the improvement goals of each industry are obtained.

Asymmetric Impact of Structural Oil Price fluctuations on China Stock market

LI Chun-hong, TANG Jie, WANG Dong-wu

2015, 24(4):  219-224.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2015.0142

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The paper investigates the effect of different driven factors of oil price fluctuations(structural oil price fluctuation)on China stock market and further studies the resource of asymmetric effect. Oil price fluctuation is decomposed into three parts by SVAR model, which include the supply factor, economic demand factor and oil-specific demand factor. The three kinds of oil price fluctuations have complex impacts on China stock market. Asymmetric GARCH model and its information curve indicate that the supply factor and oil-specific demand factor are the main resource of the asymmetric impact of oil price fluctuations on China stock market. So the research of oil price fluctuations on China stock market based on the decomposing of oil price driven factors can guide significances for the related government department to make appropriate discretionary choice.

Nonlinear Cointegration Analysis of Exchange Rate Based on Bayesian Smooth Transition Regression Model

ZHU Hui-ming, ZHOU Feng, ZENG Zhao-fa, LI Rong, YOU Wan-hai

2015, 24(4):  225-232.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2015.0143

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In the method of testing smooth transition cointegration, estimating parameters are uncertain and the problem of cointegration test is complex. This paper proposes a smooth transition regression model and conducts a Bayesian nonlinear cointegration analysis. Based on the selection of parameters prior of the model and the characteristics of the posterior conditional distributions of the parameters, Metropolis-Hasting within Gibbs sampling algorithm is designed to estimate the parameters and bayesian unit root test is utilized to test the stationarity of regression residual, addressing the uncertainty of parameters estimation and the complexity of cointegration test. At the same time, the research applies exchange rate of RMB against U.S. dollar and interest rate differential between China and U.S. to conduct an empirical analysis. The research outcome indicates that MH-Gibbs can effectively a estimate the parameters of the smooth transition model, and we find there is smooth transition cointegration relationship between exchange rate fluctuation and interest rate differential.

Inventory Financing’s Buyback Contract Under the Bank’s Downside-risk

XIN Yu-hong, WEI Yue

2015, 24(4):  233-239.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2015.0144

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Considering the small and medium-sized enterprises’ liquidity funds shortage problem in supply chain coordination management, this paper combines SCF with contract design aiming at the unsure need, by controlling the variable scope of the contract to help the system make a reasonable response to bank’s downside-risk. We figure out the contract and the scope of the suppliers’ promotion cost sharing proportion under the bank’s downside-risk, finding the lower limit affected by bank’s related indexes and pledge amount greatly. Besides, by analyzing the upper limit of repurchase price and promotion cost sharing proportion’s increase to ensure that the suppliers’ expect income won’ t reduce, it turns out the upper limit is positively related to the sellers’ order quantity.

Management Science

Analysis Factors Influencing Pricing Decision of New Products

JIANG Zi-yan, ZHAO Jun

2015, 24(4):  240-245.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2015.0145

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The sales of new product depend on two important factors: one is the engineering variables with production characteristics, such as the level of reliability; the other one is the market factors, such as price and warranty policy. A higher reliability results in a higher manufacturing cost and higher sale price. Consumers are willing to gain a higher reliability only if the price may be higher. They often judge the level of products reliability by the information of warranty policy, in order to decide whether to buy or not. Manufacturer increases demand by establishing better warranty strategy, but at the same time bears additional costs. Therefore, with price as the exogenous variable, the paper proposes a model to determine the optimal product reliability and warranty strategies which are decision variables, for the maximum benefit. Moreover, when the sensitivity parameters of the different variables change, the model will discuss the regulation of the optimal warranties strategy and product reliability. Finally, the example analyses the basic characteristics of the revenue function. The conclusion shows that consumers always judge the reliability level of products from the signal of warranty policy, which is significant for selling new products.

Multiline Transit Coordination at a Hub Based on Bus-arrival Time Prediction

YU Bin, CUI Yao, CAI Wan-jun, MA Ning

2015, 24(4):  246-253.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2015.0146

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Due to the poor prediction of traditional scheduling model, a SVM-based prediction model is put forward to forecast the arrival time of public transport vehicles at the transfer station. Then a scheduling model aimed at reducing the total waiting time of passengers is constructed to dynamically coordinate the departure time at the transfer station. Genetic Algorithm is applied to solve the dynamic scheduling problem in this paper. Finally, this paper verifies the feasibility of the model and algorithm with the data of Shahekou station in Dalian city. And the results show that the scheduling method this paper proposed is superior to the traditional scheduling method.

Research on the Dual Incentive Mechanism of Regional Innovation System Based on Super-network Model

TANG Shu-lin, XIAO Zhen-hong, LIU Qiang, YUAN Jing-ting

2015, 24(4):  254-263.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2015.0147

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Super-network phenomenon is the embodiment of functional evolution of the regional innovation system based on cooperative innovation. This paper introduces contribution rate of cooperation innovation and standardization of synergy to collaborative innovation, and establishes the dual linear separation contract model through regulatory incentive and own effort. The result shows that: A, the share rate is a decreasing function of risk preference, effort costs and uncertainty of collaborative innovation; B, it can effectively reduce the relevancy between the different tasks in super-network by using dual linear separate contracts, and raise the enthusiasm of innovator to switch between different tasks; C, only if the proportion of high level innovator exceeds a threshold value, the dual linear separation incentive contract will promote the overall benefits of regional innovation system; D, using dual linear separation contracts can reasonable control the risk of cooperative innovation, but it will affect the innovator’s risk preference in coordination of standardization.

Improvements of FMEA Method and Its Applications to the Risk Management of Technology Innovation

LUO Xiao-fang, LI Bai-zhou, BAI Xu

2015, 24(4):  264-271.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2015.0148

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Because of limited resources, the identification and protection of main risk is the key to risk management of enterprise technology innovation. Firstly, based on reasonable guesses and from the results optimization, we put forward an improved FMEA method based on reliable index vector-probability grid estimation, that is, failure modes are substituted in terms of their correlations, and then find out the main failure modes. Moreover, the improved FMEA method is applied to a risk management case of technology innovation, and the obtained results are compared with the traditional FMEA method. We conclude that our improved FMEA method used for risk management can not only save resources of enterprise, but also improve the efficiency of risk management. It is an effectively quantitative tool for risk management of enterprise technology innovation.

External Learning, Market Dynamics and Radical Innovation

HU Hai-qing, LI Hao, MA Liao-yuan

2015, 24(4):  272-281.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2015.0149

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Based on the respective investigation of logic relationship between two types of external learning(i.e. technical and administrative learning)and radical innovation of enterprises, this study, introducing market dynamics(volatility of technology and intensity of competition)as adjustment variables, tests the effect of external learning on radical innovation of enterprises under different circumstances of market dynamics and analyzes the interaction effect between external learning and market dynamics through modeling. The empirical result of 237 enterprises shows that both technical learning and administrative learning can stimulate radical innovation of enterprises. Furthermore, volatility of technology undermines the effect of technical learning on radical innovation of enterprises but enhances the effect of administrative learning on that. Conversely, intensity of competition promotes the effect of technical learning on radical innovation of enterprises but weakens the effect of administrative learning on that.

Research on Payment Scheduling Problems of Software Project

CAO Ping, ZHANG Jian, CHEN Fu-ji

2015, 24(4):  282-287.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2015.0150

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The complexity and characteristic of software project makes the Payment Schedule Problem(PSP)has its own unique characteristics. The PSP of software project is studied in this paper according to difference level of software quality. A payment schedule optimization model with penalty structure is constructed to maximize the Net Present Value(NPV)of the contractor, which reflects the impact of different software quality on contractor's gains. And then a heuristic algorithm is developed to solve the PSP. Finally, the validity of the model and algorithm is verified by an instance. It can provide a decision-making basis for contractor in process of signing outsourcing contract and implementing project.

VIKOR Method with Triangular Intuitionistic Fuzzy Numbers

SUN Hong-xia,LI Yu

2015, 24(4):  288-294.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2015.0151

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The aim of this paper is to extend VIKOR method which is a compromise ranking approach for multiple attribute decision making (MADM) problems for intuitionistic fuzzy multi-attributes analysis. VIKOR method with triangular intuitionistic fuzzy numbers is researched for solving MADM problems in which the ratings of alternatives are expressed with triangular intuitionistic fuzzy numbers and the weights are real numbers. Firstly, a ranking method for triangular intuitionistic fuzzy numbers is proposed based on preference index. Secondly, according to the basic idea of VIKOR method, the steps of VIKOR method with triangular intuitionistic fuzzy numbers are given, and then the compromise solution is obtained under the condition of acceptable advantage and acceptable stability in decision making. Finally, the third party logistics providers selection example verifies the effectiveness and feasibility of the proposed method when the weight of maximum group utility equals 0.5.