Abstract: The lack of simulation evaluation method for China’s National economic policies is a problem of test of economic policy’s validation. In this paper, national economic policy evaluation model based on CGE and general transfer payment policy simulate system is presented, and some analysis results are obtained, such as policy influence on economic factors in the west of China and comparison and contrast with areas in the east coast. Policy modeling and simulation analysis in this paper provide some policy decision support to general transfer payment policy in China’s western development strategy.

Key words: policy simulation, CGE model, general transfer payment policy

摘要： 民族经济政策的模拟评估方法的缺失一直以来是我国民族经济政策效果有效性验证的一个短板。本文构建了基于CGE的西北地区民族经济政策评估模型,针对一般转移性支付政策进行系统模拟、政策力度对西北地区的经济要素以及当地企业产出的影响程度纵向对比分析,以及与东部沿海地区横向对比分析。本文的政策评估建模和模拟分析可以为我国西部大开发战略中一般性转移支付政策提供相应的决策支持。

关键词: 政策模拟, CGE模型, 一般性转移支付政策