Abstract: With the acceleration of the aging process in China, the effective supply of the elderly service is the focus of government and scholars. Considering government subsidies, we introduce the alternative factor endowment service, build endowment service market supply dynamic game model between private pension institution and public pension institution, and analyze the influence of subsidy ways for pension services balanced supply and the influence degree of government subsidy on the optimal supply decisions of the two pension service institutions through the subsidy effect. The results show that government financial incentives for private pension agency can increase the pension services market supply. Compared with operating subsidies, multiplier effect of construction subsidies is more obvious; The financial subsidy reduces the construction cost and investment risk of private pension institutions, stimulates the enthusiasm of social capital, and the increase of private pension service institutions is larger than that of public pension service institutions. Under the constraint of fiscal budget, choosing appropriate fiscal subsidy mode can improve the allocation efficiency of financial resources, increase the effective supply of the pension service market, and alleviate the financial pressure of pension service.

Key words: social capital, government subsidies, private pension institutions, subsidy effect, provision of pension service

摘要： 随着我国老龄化速度加快,养老服务的有效供给问题是政府和学者关注的焦点。考虑政府财政补贴下,引入民办与公办养老服务的替代因子,构建民办养老机构与公办养老机构的服务动态供给模型,分析不同补贴方式和补贴力度对服务均衡供给量的影响,并进一步通过补贴乘数分析政府补贴对养老服务机构最优供给决策的影响程度。结果表明:政府对民办养老机构的财政补贴可以增加养老服务市场供给量,相较于运营补贴,政府建设补贴的政策效应更加明显;财政补贴降低了民办养老机构的建设成本和投资风险,刺激社会资本投入的积极性,民办养老服务供给增加幅度大于公办养老服务供给减少幅度,养老服务市场有效供给增加。在财政预算约束下,选择恰当的财政补贴方式,可以提高财政资源的配置效率,增加养老服务市场的有效供给,缓解养老服务财政压力。

关键词: 社会资本, 政府补贴, 民办养老机构, 补贴效应, 养老服务供给