Abstract: With the increasing awareness of carbon emission and oil consumption, the development of electric vehicles industry is attracting more attention. According to consumers of heterogeneity with different buying behavior, the authors build a two-stage utility model. By solving the model, the market demand of different of consumer types are obtained. When government considers environmental impacts, the paper further explores how the market demand of electric vehicles is influenced by the product’s durability, degree of updates and government subsidies. The results indicate that when the environmental benefit of unit vehicle is larger, with the increase of the degree of updates, the market demand of electric vehicles will increase in the first stage, but that will decrease in the second stage. When the environmental benefit of unit vehicle is smaller, with the increase of the degree of updates, the market demand will decrease in the first stage, but that will increase in the second stage. The optimal profit of manufacturer increases with the increase of the degree of product updates and government subsidies. When the product durability is greater than a certain threshold, manufacturer’s profit increases with the increase of durability, and vice versa.

Key words: management science, two-stage utility model, stackelberg game, electric vehicles, government subsidies, product update

摘要： 随着交通行业产生的碳排放和石油能源消耗问题受到越来越多关注,电动汽车行业的发展变得尤为重要。基于不同购买行为的异质性消费者,通过建立两阶段效用模型,得到不同类型消费者的市场需求,并进一步探究了政府关注电动汽车的环境影响情况下产品耐用度、产品更新程度和政府补贴对电动汽车市场需求的影响,结果表明:当单位电动汽车的环境效益较大时,随着更新程度的提高,第一阶段的电动汽车需求增大,而第二阶段的需求减少;当单位车辆的环境效益较小时,更新程度的提高使得第一阶段的需求降低,而第二阶段的需求增大;生产商最优利润随产品更新程度和政府补贴的增加而增大,当产品耐用度大于某个阀值时,生产商利润随耐用度的增加而增大,反之则减小。

关键词: 管理科学, 两阶段效用模型, stackelberg博弈, 电动汽车, 政府补贴, 产品更新