Abstract: The study on the quantity decision of a dual-channel supply chain with money back guarantee is conducted. By constructing a supply chain model with money back guarantee offers by retailers, this paper studies the seller’s quantity decision problem. The effects of money back guarantee and quantity decision sequence on equilibrium results, threshold of opening direct channel are analyzed. With comparison and analysis, it is found that in the traditional retail channel system, offering money back guarantee enhances sales quantity and manufacturer’s profit. Without money back guarantee the profits of manufacturer and retailer increases with customer satisfaction. With money back guarantee the profits of manufacturer and retailer first decreases and then increases in consumer satisfaction. Manufacturers will not open direct channel when selling cost is high. Manufacturers can more easily open a direct channel by offering money back guarantee. In the dual-channel supply chain, offering money back guarantee reduces retailer’s profit, increases direct sales quantity, total sales quantity and manufacturer’s profit. Retailer’s profit increases with direct selling cost of manufacturers. Direct sales quantity, total sales quantity, manufacturer’s profit and total profit decrease with direct selling cost. In the case of sequential quantity decisions, the manufacturer’s profit and total profit are higher.

Key words: supply chain, money back guarantee, encroachment, quantity decision

摘要： 在考虑消费者退货下,构建由制造商和零售商组成的二级供应链模型,研究了双方的订货量决策问题,并分析不同策略以及决策顺序对均衡结果和制造商开通直销渠道的影响。研究发现:在单渠道中,提供退款保证可提高订货量、制造商和零售商利润。当直销成本较大时,制造商将不开通直销渠道;提供退款保证有利于制造商开通直销渠道。在双渠道中,提供退款保证能够提高直销量、总订货量和制造商利润;直销量、总订货量、制造商利润和总利润都随直销成本递减;在顺序决策下,制造商利润和总利润更高。

关键词: 供应链, 退款保证, 入侵, 订货量决策