Abstract: As environmental pollution issues become increasingly severe, the comprehensive green transformation of the manufacturing industry has emerged as an urgent and important topic. However, the characteristics of high investment, high risk, long cycles, and slow effects, combined with many companies’ pursuit of short-term benefits, result in a lack of motivation and willingness to implement green transformation. In this context, the government, as the regulatory body for the green transformation of manufacturing enterprises, needs to take certain incentive measures to reduce the cost pressure of green transformation for manufacturing enterprises, thereby promoting their implementation of green transformation. However, from a long-term perspective, excessive government subsidies not only increase the fiscal burden of local governments but also suppress the innovation ability of enterprises. Therefore, in promoting the green transformation of the manufacturing industry, it is important to find a balance point that considers both the government’s fiscal capacity and stimulates the long-term transformation motivation of enterprises. Therefore, designing a reasonable government subsidy mechanism that can effectively stimulate manufacturing enterprises’ motivation and willingness for green transformation, while avoiding significant financial pressure on local governments, is the key to achieving a comprehensive green transformation of the manufacturing industry.
   This paper first builds an improved Rank-Dependent Expected Utility (RDEU) model based on the RDEU theory and evolutionary game theory, considering the impact of government subsidies and transformation costs on the emotions of local governments and manufacturing enterprises. Secondly, it solves and analyzes the evolutionary stability of game strategies of local governments and manufacturing enterprises under different emotional combinations, thereby revealing the possible changes in their decision-making behaviors of governments and manufacturing enterprises under different emotional combinations of states. Finally, the above results are analyzed through numerical simulation, and the sensitivity analysis of the amount of government subsidy and transformation cost in the scenario of pessimistic local government and optimistic manufacturing enterprises is conducted to further explore the impact of government subsidy and enterprise transformation cost on decision-making.
   The research finds: (1) When local governments are in a rational state, there is a natural contradiction between socio-economic growth and environmental protection in their view, leading to a rational choice by local governments not to prioritize “efforts for environmental protection”. This choice does not promote the green transformation of manufacturing and is detrimental to sustainable development of society. (2) When local governments are influenced by emotions, if the government subsidy is low, although the government may have an optimistic attitude towards implementing subsidy policies. However, such a low subsidy policy is unlikely to motivate manufacturing enterprises to choose green transformation, which is still disadvantageous to the sustainable development of society. (3) Only when local governments show pessimistic emotions, and manufacturing enterprises are in a rational state or optimistic emotions, can this promote local governments to implement subsidy policies and manufacturing enterprises to choose comprehensive green transformation, which will benefit the sustainable development of society. (4) For manufacturing enterprises with different transformation costs, there are different optimal subsidy intervals. (5) Enterprises with lower transformation costs are more likely to exhibit shortsighted behavior, caring more about the benefits they can obtain from government subsidies. In contrast, those with higher transformation costs are often less sensitive to the amount of government subsidies.
   Based on these findings, this study provides decision-making recommendations for governments and manufacturing enterprises, aimed at helping achieve the comprehensive green transformation of the manufacturing industry, thereby promoting the sustainable development of society.

Key words: government subsidies, transformation costs, manufacturing enterprises, green transformation, improved RDEU theory

摘要： 合理设计政府补贴机制,避免地方政府高额财政压力的同时能有效激发制造企业绿色化转型的动力和意愿,是实现制造业全面绿色化转型的关键。本文基于秩依期望效用理论(RDEU)和演化博弈理论,考虑了政府补贴和转型成本对于地方政府与制造企业情绪的影响,构建了改进后的RDEU模型。求解并分析了双方在异质情绪组合下博弈策略及其演化稳定性,并通过数值仿真和灵敏度分析对这些情绪组合进行了探讨。研究发现:(1)当且仅当政府补贴额处在最优区间内,使得地方政府对推行补贴政策持悲观情绪,而制造企业对绿色化转型持理性状态或乐观情绪时,才能促进制造企业全面绿色化转型;(2)对不同转型成本的制造企业而言,存在不同的最优补贴区间;(3)转型成本较低的企业倾向于短视行为,更关注从政府补贴中获得的利益。基于以上发现,本研究为政府和制造企业提供了决策建议,旨在帮助实现制造业全面绿色化转型,从而促进社会可持续发展。

关键词: 政府补贴, 转型成本, 制造企业, 绿色化转型, 改进RDEU模型