Abstract: Natural disasters cause fuzzy information and negative emotion problems in emergency decision making. Based on prospect theory and the effects of negative emotions on emergency decision making in natural disaster, this research is focused on decision programming for emergency repair of power grid under fuzzy information. It builds a value function with emotional prospect theory, and adopts the idea of inverse function to set up an estimating function to reveal the relations between decision makers’ perceived value of fuzzy information and its actual value, as a method of its value estimation, and then uses it to establish the decision model for emergency repair of terminal power supply facilities. At last it conducts online decision experiments by a self-developed experimental system of this emergency repair decision, to verify the estimating functions and decision model.

Key words: behavioral decision making, decision making for emergency repair of terminal power supply facilities, prospect theory, fuzzy information, negative emotions

摘要： 自然灾害情境造成部分决策信息模糊和应急决策者的消极情绪。考虑消极情绪在自然灾害应急决策的影响,构建了考虑情绪下的前景理论的价值函数。运用反函数原理,根据应急决策者对模糊信息的心理感知价值,构建了其实际值的估计函数,用于解决决策信息模糊下的终端供电设施应急抢修决策规划问题,提出了相应的决策模型和求解算法。采用自主开发的在线实验系统,完成了信息模糊下的电网应急抢修决策实验,验证了决策模型和消极情绪下基于决策者心理感知对模糊信息估值方法的有效性。

关键词: 行为决策, 终端供电设施抢修决策, 前景理论, 信息模糊, 消极情绪