Abstract: To the huge environmental impact brought by the building sector in China, it is a significant institutional innovation to employ market-based mechanisms to control and reduce its carbon dioxide emissions. This research, firstly, explores the building owner's optimal strategy in the increasingly complex and dynamic environment driven by carbon trading by establishing a multi-objective optimization model. And then, an empirical study based on practical data has been conducted to predict the dynamic adaptive adjustment of carbon reduction decision by the owners in different scenarios.The results show that owners' carbon reduction decision is heavily influenced by the fluctuation in the intensity of subsidy and penalty. Besides, it is found that the one-size-fits-all penalty multiplier in the current carbon market is easy to make owners' illegal emissions fall into the punishment paradox of “rewards for explicit punishment”. Furthermore, the government should adopt the policy of “retrograde subsidy” and carry out precise subsidies to different owners.

Key words: carbon trading, building owner, carbon emissions reduction, decision optimization

摘要： 对碳排放总量和强度都持续刚性增长的建筑领域,利用市场机制,借助碳交易来控制和减少其碳排放是一项重大的制度创新。本文通过构建多目标决策优化模型,探讨建筑业主在碳交易驱动形成的复杂动态环境下的最优碳减排策略;并基于实证数据进行情景耕耘,模拟和预测业主减排策略的动态适应性调整。研究发现:①业主碳减排决策受政府补贴强度和违规惩罚倍率调整的冲击更为显著;②目前碳市场“一刀切”的惩罚倍率极易使建筑业主陷入“明罚实奖”的惩罚悖论;③政府应采用“补贴退坡”政策并对不同类型的建筑业主进行精准补贴。

关键词: 碳交易, 建筑业主, 碳减排, 决策优化