Abstract: Compared with conventional fuel vehicles, new energy vehicles offer significant advantages such as low fuel consumption and reduced emissions, which can effectively alleviate environmental pollution and mitigate the energy crisis. Recognizing these benefits, the Chinese government introduced a subsidy policy for new energy vehicles in 2010 to encourage their widespread adoption. This policy aimed to accelerate the transition to cleaner transportation and reduce the nation’s reliance on fossil fuels. However, the sustainability of these subsidy policies has been called into question due to incidents of “subsidy cheating” by some automakers. As a consequence, the Chinese government decided to phase out the subsidy policy, with a complete expiration set for 2023, marking the beginning of a “post-subsidy” era for new energy vehicles. In this new phase, potential strategies include enhancing regulatory frameworks, investing in research and development, improving infrastructure for electric vehicles, and encouraging market-driven solutions. By focusing on these areas, China can continue to support the growth of the new energy vehicle market, drive technological advancements, and achieve its environmental and energy goals.
As new energy vehicles are relatively new products developed in the last decade, consumers often lack knowledge about them and tend to compare them with conventional fuel vehicles when making purchase decisions. This behavior, known as the reference effect, can affect the effectiveness of price rebates and green fiscal policies. This paper constructs a game model involving the government, firms and consumers, analyses these two promotional policies taking into account the reference effect, and discusses the optimal policies.
The results suggest that: (i)Regardless of the value of the consumer purchase reference effect, the implementation of the green tax and price discount policy is beneficial to the promotion of new energy vehicles. (ii)When consumers prefer new energy vehicles, the optimal policy choice of the government is not affected by the consumer purchase reference effect, and the green tax policy is always the optimal choice of the government; when consumers prefer fuel vehicles, the optimal policy choice of the government is affected by the consumer purchase reference effect, i.e., the green tax policy is the optimal choice of the government when the consumer purchase reference effect is small; the price discount policy is the optimal choice of the government when the consumer purchase reference effect is large. When the consumer purchase reference effect is small, the green tax policy is the optimal choice for the government; when the consumer purchase reference effect is large, the price discount policy is the optimal choice for the government. (iii)The optimal new energy vehicle support policy is affected by the greenness of new energy vehicles and the marginal pollution damage of fuel vehicles. The relationship between these factors and the optimal policy is moderated by the consumer purchase reference effect.
Our findings have significant practical implications for the formulation of government policies aimed at promoting sustainable development, particularly in the automotive sector. Firstly, we have determined that both price rebate schemes and green tax policies are effective tools for encouraging the adoption of new energy vehicles. This suggests that governments should conduct thorough and comprehensive studies to establish the optimal tax rate that would maximize the benefits of these policies. Secondly, our research indicates that in the current market context, where the majority of consumers still prefer gasoline vehicles, either a price rebate or a green tax policy can be effectively implemented to promote new energy vehicles. However, as consumer preferences evolve and shift towards new energy vehicles, the green tax policy emerges as the more optimal approach. This implies that while price rebates are beneficial in the short term, in the long run, governments should strategically plan to transit towards green tax policies to sustain and accelerate the growth of the new energy vehicle market. Therefore, it is crucial for government policymakers to anticipate this shift in consumer preferences and prepare to implement green tax policies in the near future. By doing so, they can ensure a smoother transition and continued support for the new energy vehicle industry as subsidies are phased out. This paper provides valuable insights that can guide the promotion of new energy vehicles and support the development of the new energy vehicle industry in the post-subsidy era, ultimately contributing to environmental sustainability and energy conservation. In summary, our findings underscore the importance of adaptive and forward-thinking policy measures. Governments should leverage the dual approach of price rebates and green tax policies based on current market dynamics and future trends, ensuring a robust framework for the promotion and growth of new energy vehicles.

Key words: green tax policy, price discount policy, new energy vehicle, reference effect

摘要： 本文通过构建政府-企业-消费者三方博弈模型,考察了消费者具有购买参考效应时两类新能源汽车推广政策(绿色税和价格折扣)的效果及差异,并进一步讨论了政府的最优政策选择。研究显示:(1)无论消费者购买参考效应取何值,绿色税和价格折扣政策的实施均有利于新能源汽车的推广(即新能源汽车销量的增长)。(2)当消费者偏好新能源汽车时,政府最优的政策选择不受消费者购买参考效应的影响,绿色税政策始终是政府的最优选择;当消费者偏好燃油汽车时,政府最优的政策选择受消费者购买参考效应的影响,即在消费者购买参考效应较小时,绿色税政策为政府的最优选择;在消费者购买参考效应较大时,价格折扣政策为政府的最优选择。(3)燃油汽车边际污染损害程度和新能源汽车绿色度是影响新能源汽车最优推广政策设计的重要因素,同时燃油汽车边际污染损害程度、新能源汽车绿色度与最优推广政策之间的关系受消费者购买参考效应调节。

关键词: 绿色税, 价格折扣政策, 新能源汽车, 参考效应