Abstract: Considering the impact of demand uncertainty, the paper analyzes how the government should provide subsidies to consumers or suppliers in order to mitigate environmental externalities in green technology innovation by newsvendor model. The results show that from the perspective of minimizing government subsidy expenditure, government departments should choose to provide consumers with a fixed amount of subsidies when demand is uncertain. The optimal subsidy amount should take into account the demand uncertainty and the government's desired adoption target level. If governments expect enterprises to increase the output of green products, price discount is the best choice. We demonstrate that an increase in demand uncertainty leads to higher production quantities and lower prices, resulting in lower profits for the supplier. With this in mind, one could expect consumer surplus to increase with uncertainty, and thus it is more advantageous for consumers to buy green products with high demand uncertainty.

Key words: green technology innovation, environmental external effects, government subsidies, newsvendor model

摘要： 考虑需求不确定因素的影响,应用报童模型,分析了政府为刺激绿色产品消费应该如何给消费者或供应企业提供补贴的问题。研究结果表明:政府部门希望实现政府补贴支出最小化的情况下,应该选择为消费者提供固定额度补贴。最优补贴额度由需求不确定因素以及政府制定目标销量共同决定。政府希望企业提高绿色产品产量的情况下,价格折扣为其最优选择。对消费者来说,随着需求不确定性增加,企业确定的最优产量将会增加,政府为绿色产品提供的补贴额度也将会提高,消费者实际购买价格将会降低,在需求不确定性较高的情况下,消费者购买绿色产品比较有利。

关键词: 绿色技术创新, 环境外部效应, 政府补贴, 报童模型