Abstract: It is very important to scientifically prevent the emergencies in colleges and universities for maintaining the stability of the society. To establish and perfect the pre-warning mechanism and promote the ability of emergency management, a new method is developed in this paper to deal with the complexity of the pre-warning assessment for the emergencies in universities. We first establish the index system for the pre-warning assessment with the Delphi method, and then weigh these indexes by combination of Delphi and AHP methods. In an assessment phase, the weighted set-valued statistics(WSVS)is employed rather than the commonly used point estimation method, which is believed to bring inaccuracy. An application of our method for assessing the risk of a dormitory fire emergency is also shown in our paper.It is proved that the model is feasible and valid in setting the pre-warning level and releasing pre-warning signals.

Key words: group decision, pre-warning assessment, Delphi, AHP, weighted set-valued statistics, high institutions emergencies

摘要： 科学预防高校突发事件发生对维护高校乃至社会稳定具有重要意义。为建立和完善预警机制,提高应急管理能力,本文针对高校突发事件监测预警复杂性,提出一种预警评估新方法。该方法首先采用Delphi法建立预警评估的指标集,并将Delphi和AHP方法集成(DelphiAHP)来确定各指标权重;在预警评估阶段采用加权集值统计法(weighted set valued statistics, WSVS),避免了以往评价中采用点估计所带来的不准确性。最后,以学生公寓突发火灾事件为例表明,采用该模型确定预警等级并进行预警发布具有可行性与有效性。

关键词: 群决策, 预警评估, Delphi, AHP, 加权集值统计, 高校突发事件