Table of Content

25 June 2013, Volume 22 Issue 3

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Theory Analysis and Methodology Study

Multiplicative Consistency Test and Modification Approach of Fuzzy Number Complementary Judgment Matrix

ZHAO Xuan, ZHANG Qiang, ZHU Ji-qiao

2013, 22(3):  1-7. 

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We research on the multiplicative consistency test and modification approach of fuzzy number complementary judgment matrix. It is based on the Q-operator of fuzzy number and Q-operator matrix of fuzzy number complementary judgment matrix introduced in paper[11]. By constructing characteristic matrix with multiplicative consistency and deviation matrix, we establish a measurement index of the multiplicative consistency degree. Meanwhile, the conception of satisfying multiplicative consistency is given by setting threshold. An improved method is proposed for those not satisfying multiplicative consistency. Finally, a numerical example is given to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed method.

A Most Observable Retrial Queueing Model

ZOU Zong-bao, WANG Jian-jun, DENG Gui-shi

2013, 22(3):  8-15. 

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This paper studies a most observable retrial queue via the quasi birth and death process theory. From the viewpoint of economics, we discuss decision-making problems of the customers, the society and the administrator, and obtain their optimal threshold strategies. Then, we give some numerical examples to illustrate the effect of the service payments on the three optimal threshold strategies. The results showed that customer decision threshold is the biggest one, the social decision threshold the second biggest and the monopolist decision threshold the minimum one. Finally, we gave the corresponding management enlightenment from the points of view of the social and the manager: with different service payments, respective entrance fees are charged to force the behaviors of customers to satisfy the social decision threshold and the monopolist decision threshold.

An Analysis of the Stability of International Environmental Agreements Based on Repeated Games

CUI Zhi-wei, LI Zi-ran, ZHANG Jin, ZU Lei

2013, 22(3):  16-20. 

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In this paper, the efficiency of International Environmental Agreements(IEAs)is defined in terms of emission reducing and maximizing joint social welfare. It emphasizes IEAs' improvement on the social welfare without increasing the pollution. For the simultaneous model in Carraro & Siniscalco(1993)and Hoel(1992), we show that the outcome of full cooperation is efficient but not stable. When the benchmark model is extended to infinitely repeated game, we show that full cooperation is supported by subgame perfect equilibrium. And, the lower bound of the discount factor is also provided.

Approach for Random Lattice Order Ranking Based on Preference Entropy Under Interval Belief Degree Circumstance

GUO Chun-xiang, GONG Hao, GUO Yao-huang

2013, 22(3):  21-29. 

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A method of random lattice order decision analysis based on interval-valued distribution preference vector by entropy theory is proposed, focused on decision preference system with preference relations' belief degree described by interval-value. First, the preference characterization of decision makers is extended from four variety relations to seven variety preference relations, combined with the concept and property of interval evidence, the concept and property of interval-valued distribution preference vector and relative entropy on the lattice order preference system are given. Then the ER nonlinear optimization model based on preference entropy is established, the individual preferences are aggregated by applying the priority rules and intersection rule, and the specific steps of the decision making are qiven. The feasibility and effectiveness of the approach proposed in this paper are illustrated with a numerical example.

Neural Networks for Solving Interval Quadratic Programming Problems with Linear Constraints

WANG You-gang, LIU De-you

2013, 22(3):  30-35. 

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In this paper, based on neural network, an approach of solving interval quadratic programming problems with linear constraints is proposed. By using augmented Lagrange function, a neural network for solving quadratic programming is presented. Based on Saddle point theorem, the equilibrium point of the proposed neural network is proved to be equivalent to the optimal solution of the interval quadratic programming problems. The global exponential stability of the proposed neural network is analyzed in terms of a Lyapunov approach. Two illustrative examples are provided to illustrate the usefulness and the efficiency of the theoretical results.

Study on Optimization and Simulation of DSM Project Schedule Based on Activities Overlapping

ZHANG Chun-sheng, YAN Guang-le

2013, 22(3):  36-44. 

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Overlapping between project activities can shorten project schedule, but it can result in a rework risk. Therefore, the paper first adopts the design structure matrix(DSM), proposes activities advancing overlapping factor DSM and activities crashing overlapping factor DSM, combines rework risk DSM, aiming to completely describe the effect of activities overlapping on rework. Finally, the author presents a hybrid particle swarm algorithm for schedule optimization based on activities overlapping. The calculation proves that the method can not only reduce the duration of projects, but also provide decision-makers with a new perspective in properly choosing activities overlapping.

Vender Managed Inventory Model Considering Supplier's Fairness Preference in Supply Chain with Dominant Retailer

ZHAO Dao-zhi, LV Xin

2013, 22(3):  45-52. 

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By making an introduction of fairness preference into the traditional VMI model, the mechanism is discussed of how fairness preference impacts the performance of supply chain. Boundary conditions of fairness preference are revealed by establishing a Stackelberg gaming model. It is pointed out that 1)there's a ‘price threshold', and when sales price is higher(lower)than the threshold, supplier will(won't)have fairness negative utility; 2)the value of ‘price threshold' has a positive correlation with retailer's channel power;3)when sales price is higher than the ‘price threshold', fairness negative utility will firstly get higher and then lower as the supplier has an increasing degree of jealousy; 4)fairness preference aggravates the double marginal effect in the supply chain. Finally, the effectiveness of conclusions has been verified by numerical examples.

Analysis of Retailer's Forecasting Techniques in Supply Chain —Based on the Bullwhip Effect

MA Yun-gao, WANG Neng-min, XU Jin-peng

2013, 22(3):  53-60. 

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In the previous research, a first-order autoregressive(AR(1))process was adopted by most researchers to describe the demand process. However, it is difficult to explain the managerial insights of the demand process characteristics, such as the demand correlation coefficient on the bullwhip effect. Our research considers a demand model where the demand depends on its price and the price follows an AR(1)process, we derive the analytical expressions of the bullwhip effect with minimum mean-squared error(MMSE), moving average(MA)and exponential smoothing(ES)techniques and deduce the conditions under which the retailer should choose the best forecasting technique. Results show that: first, the market demand scale does not influence the retailer's choice. Second, when the product price sensitivity coefficient is small, or when the price correlation coefficient is small, the retailer should choose MMSE technique. Third, for products with a large product price sensitivity coefficient and a large price correlation coefficient, the retailer should choose MA technique.

Dynamic Model of Third-Party Collecting Closed-Loop Supply Chain

HUANG Zong-sheng, NIE Jia-jia, HU Pei

2013, 22(3):  61-70. 

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The dynamic model of third-party collecting closed-loop supply chain with product remanufacturing is proposed. By build the differential equation about return rate, which is function of the investment in the reverse channel, dynamic models of centralized collecting and third-party collecting are developed. The optimal control strategy is found by the differential game approach. Some results are found. First, the product return rate increases with the time; second, the retail price and wholesale price decrease with the time, and the third-party's optimal collecting investment increases with the time; third, return rate of third-party collecting is lower than that of centralized collecting, because the retail price is higher, but the market demand is lower.

Resource Allocation of Third-party Warehousing Based on Revenue Management and Simulation

PAN Yan-chun, ZHOU Ming, CHEN Zhi-min

2013, 22(3):  71-79. 

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To solve the capacity design and resource allocation problem at third-party warehousing under uncertain demands, a stochastic mathematical programming model is proposed. It is proved in this paper there exist optimal resource allocation quantities, and the optimal quantity of each class of customer is a decreasing function of unit resource cost, while an increasing function of unit resource revenue and unit lost cost. Because of the complexity for this problem to be solved analytically, a new approach integrating revenue management with discrete-event simulation and response surface methodology is developed. Revenue management is used to implement customer segmentation and construction of resource allocation policies. Simulation is employed to model the stochastic characteristics and evaluate the performance of the system. The optimization of allocation policies and exploration of performance improvement is realized by a statistical experimental technology, response surface methodology. Case study and simulation experiments show that allocating warehousing capacity according to customer segmentation is better than the traditional policy of first come first service, and the combination of revenue management, response surface methodology and simulation can effectively improve system's yield, which validates the approach proposed in this paper.

Coordination Mechanism and Joint Decision of Price and Lead-time in Supply Chain with Stochastic Elastic Demand

YE Fei, LIAO Peng, LI Yi-na

2013, 22(3):  80-88. 

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This paper studies the optimal retail price, lead time and stock factor decisions in a supply chain with stochastic and price-lead time elastic demand. The optimal decisions under both centralized and decentralized supply chain decision scenarios are studied. The results show that the lead time and stock factor decisions under both scenarios are the same, whereas under the decentralized model, the retail price is higher and the profit is lower. Moreover, the chain profit loss, compared to centralized system, increases with the price elasticity. A kind of revenue and cost sharing coordination mechanism is also proposed to coordinate the profits of supply chain. The results show that the coordination mechanism can help to shorten lead time and achieve supply chain Pareto improvement, while can not achieve the perfect supply chain coordination. In addition, the optimal retail price under coordination mechanism is lower than that of decentralized model. The reduction extent of lead time increases with the cost allocation ratio burdened by the retailer. As the cost allocation ratio burdened by the retailer is smaller, the extent of lead time reduction will be lower, and then the profit of the coordinated supply chain will be closer to that of centralized supply chain. Our numerical results show that supply chain profits decrease with the variance of the market demand.

Differential Price Coordination Contract of Closed-Loop Supply Chain with Remanufacturing Under Patent Protection

WANG Jian-ming

2013, 22(3):  89-96. 

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The purpose of this paper is to investigate the optimal decision of the members in the closed-loop supply chain and design of coordinate system when the protected original manufacturer permits the third party to remanufacture. According to real condition, differential pricing models are constructed. Game theory is used to discuss the optimal pricing strategies and the optimal profit in the decentralized and centralized models. The results show that, remanufacturing rate of the end-of-life products and expense of patent licensing have an effect on the recycling price and quantity of the end-of-life products, and the remanufacturing products' received degree of customers have an effect on remanufacturing products pricing strategies and profit of supply chain members. The revenue and expense sharing contract including three parties is put forward in the paper, which can coordinate and optimize the decentralized closed-loop supply chain.

Flow-Interception Facility Location Problem under Competitive Conditions

SHEN Rui-ling, HUO Jia-zhen

2013, 22(3):  97-101. 

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We consider a facility location model for locating a set of new facilities that compete for customer demand with each other, as well as with some pre-existing facilities both belong to the entity and the competitor, to capture the maximum profit of the entity. According to Huff gravity model, the probability that a customer selects a certain facility is proportional to its attractiveness and inversely proportional to the distance to the facility, we suppose the facility construction cost is relevant to its attractiveness, the problem is formulated as a non-linear integer program and solved by greedy algorithm. The numerical analysis indicates that the model and the method are practical.

Application of Swarm Size Adaptive Particle Swarm Optimization to Continuous Location of Distribution Center

QU Bin, LU Liu-si

2013, 22(3):  102-108. 

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In this paper, according to the pattern of “plant-distribution center-users” which is more realistic, a continuous location model of logistics distribution center is established, and a solving algorithm is proposed to solve the large-scale location problem. The algorithm is derived from the combination of improved ALA method with adaptive PSO whose robustness is stronger. In the algorithm, swarm size changes adaptively, the classical particles move equation is improved, the study factors are eliminated, the inertia factor changes adaptively according to fitness value, and the improvement of ALA method increases the algorithm efficiency. Numerical experiments show that the model has practical advantages to a certain extent, and that the algorithm whose optimization ability and robustness are stronger can effectively avoid getting the local optimal.

Application Research

Study on Project Scheduling Problem Based on Modular Outsourcing —Taking Subroject TCP/C1-3-1A-1 of Three Gorges Project for Example

CHAI Guo-rong, BAO Yin-li, ZONG Sheng-Liang, HE Zheng-wen, ZHANG Guo-xing

2013, 22(3):  109-114. 

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Market competition under globalization promotes enterprises to integrate resources all over the world, and outsourcing is becoming an important factor of project scheduling. Taking subproject TCP/C1-3-1A-1 of Three Gorges Project for example, this paper constructs modular network by design structure matrix, and chooses outsourcing modules primarily by two levels, then formulates optimization model of project scheduling based on modular outsourcing. The results show that the income of the project is enhanced and the duration of the project is greatly shortened because of synergy effects with modular outsourcing.

Influence on the Optimal Endogenous Economic Growth from Energy Intensity and Structural Optimization of Energy Consumption

GONG Wei-feng, WANG Chuan-hui, ZHOU De-qun, ZENG Zhao-peng, ZHU Pei-feng

2013, 22(3):  115-121. 

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In the framework of a vertical innovation model, energy intensity and rate of carbon dioxide abatement are both all put into the production function. Alert awareness towards climate change is put into utility function. A dynamic optimization model of the endogenous low-carbon economic growth is established. Through solving the dynamic optimization model, the optimal path of a long-term economic equilibrium growth is found. The interrelationship of energy intensity, energy consumption structure, rate of carbon dioxide abatement and economic growth are all discussed. The influence of various parameters on path of the optimal economic growth is analyzed. Paths of the optimal economic growth are compared in two scenarios of the internal structure of fossil energy consumption. In the long term, energy intensity and rate of carbon dioxide abatement have mutual negative linear relationship with economic growth. Reducing the comprehensive coefficient of carbon emissions which reflects the internal structure of fossil energy consumption could promote economic growth. Increasing the share of non-fossil energy in primary energy consumption, widely using low carbon technology, improving the contribution of technology accumulation from research and development, reducing preference to the current consumption, and strengthening awareness towards climate change would be beneficial to promoting low-carbon economic development.

Research of the Expert Selection of Complex Product Systems Project Evaluation

ZHAO Jing, GUO Peng, ZHU Yu-ming

2013, 22(3):  122-131. 

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The expert selection is an important decision problem in the process of complex product systems(CoPS)project evaluation and suitable experts will facilitate the success of CoPS projects. Considering the multi-field knowledge integration and the fuzzy uncertainty of the project task, the knowledge attribute identification of the CoPS project evaluation and the scientific judgment of the expert relatively “small” field are major difficulties. As to the expert selection oriented to the CoPS project evaluation, a dual method of the knowledge classification and characterization including technical fields and task fields is put forward, a measuring model for the expert's knowledge relationship is built based on the theory of intuitionistic fuzzy sets similarity, a multi-objective decision-making model is built on the basis of the individual performance and knowledge relationship of the expert, and a real example of electronic component project evaluation in the aerospace domain is given to illustrate the application of the proposed method.

Density Operator of Blended Data Form From Stochastic Simulation Aspect

LI Wei-wei, YI Ping-tao, GUO Ya-jun

2013, 22(3):  132-138. 

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This paper studies density operator of blended data information form by using stochastic simulation method on the basis of Monte Carlo simulation. First, the blended data are transformed into interval numbers, which are in the same scope after parallel translation and enlargement or contraction. Then, the stochastic numbers are given through stochastic number generator, which obeys some distribution. A clustering method and density weights determination method are provided. Based on this, the stochastic simulation method is used for information aggregation model of density operator, which can generate conclusion with reliable information. At last, an example is given to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed method.

Analysis and Evaluation of Independent Innovation Capability of Military Industrial Enterprises

YIN Hang, SHI Guang, LI Bai-zhou

2013, 22(3):  139-145. 

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To improve independent innovation capability and strengthen core-competitiveness, milliary industrial enterprises must bring forth a new developmental idea, establish a mutual innovation goal and tansform a technological developmental mode. This article deeply analyzes independent innovation's present status, finds out influencing factors, sets up measuring indexes, establishes evaluationg method, and evaluates independent innovation capability of milliary industrial enterprises so as to provide administrative referencs for improving independent innovation capabiliy of milliary industrial enterprises.

Pre Warning Assessment of Emergencies in Universities Based on Delphi-AHPAnd Weighted Set Valued Statistics

ZHOU Rong-xi, LI Shou-rong, YANG Min, QIU Wan-hua

2013, 22(3):  146-153. 

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It is very important to scientifically prevent the emergencies in colleges and universities for maintaining the stability of the society. To establish and perfect the pre-warning mechanism and promote the ability of emergency management, a new method is developed in this paper to deal with the complexity of the pre-warning assessment for the emergencies in universities. We first establish the index system for the pre-warning assessment with the Delphi method, and then weigh these indexes by combination of Delphi and AHP methods. In an assessment phase, the weighted set-valued statistics(WSVS)is employed rather than the commonly used point estimation method, which is believed to bring inaccuracy. An application of our method for assessing the risk of a dormitory fire emergency is also shown in our paper.It is proved that the model is feasible and valid in setting the pre-warning level and releasing pre-warning signals.

Research on Propagation Mechanism of Online Consumer Reviews Based on Agent Simulation

SUN Dan-Dan, XU Xiao-Yan

2013, 22(3):  154-161. 

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Along with the internet technology becomes more sophisticated, the number of netizens surges, and the impact of electronic word-of-mouth(eWOM)becomes more significant. Online consumer reviews, as a mean of the propagation of electronic word-of-mouth, get the attention of enterprises. Unlike the previous literatures which study the influencing factors of online consumer reviews by the empirical research, from the point of the view of the propagation network of online consumer reviews, we construct a model of the propagation of word-of-mouth of online consumer reviews. We study the role of the forum which, as an agent, is by means of simulation on the Swarm platform. At last, this paper provides a new way of thinking for eWOM research. Moreover, this study is helpful for finding the influence factors on eWOM , so it is very sound to guide the enterprises to carry out a better eWOM marketing.

Efficiency Based on the Two-stage Correlative DEA Malmquist Index on Western Regional Technical Innovation

PENG Yu, CHEN Si-ying, SHENG Wen-wen, PU Yu

2013, 22(3):  162-168. 

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By using the two-stage correlative DEA model to calculate Malmqusit index and evaluating the efficiency of technological innovation in the western region, it is found that when a decomposition index promotes the efficiency of technological innovation, the other decomposition index always plays a restricteds role. Compared with the calculated results of the traditional DEA model, the index of this method better reflects the objective reality.

Study of Securities Investment Strategies Dynamic Game Based on Evolutionary Finance Theory

XIA Wei-li, WEI Xing-ji, SUN Tong-tong

2013, 22(3):  169-173. 

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The study examines a game theoretic evolutionary model of an asset market with endogenous equilibrium asset prices. Assets pay dividends that are consumed and reinvested.The investors use adaptive, general strategies ,distributing their wealth between assets,depending on the observed history of the game and the exogenous states of the world .The main purpose of this study is to explore strategies,allowing an investor to survive and to possess a positive,bounded away from zero,share of market wealth over the whole infinite time horizon. This study brings together recent studies about evolutionary finance with the classical topic of non-cooperative market games. And at the same time,this study examines the asymptotic uniqueness of the result.

Solving Portfolio Selection with Probability Criterion under Investor's Preference

LIU Yong, MA Liang

2013, 22(3):  174-178. 

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Portfolio selection with probability criterion under investor's preference is the deepening of portfolio selection. It is an optimization mathematic model with the objective function based on probability criterion and investor's preference under the condition of non-negative constrains. A gravitational search algorithm is designed to solve this model. The mass and position correspond to the objective function and investment proportional coefficient, respectively. The implementation of this method is given based on velocity and position update equations Experimental results and comparison experiments show the effectiveness and feasibility of proposed algorithm.

Volatility Model on Term Structure of Interest Rate in T-bill Maket Based on Dual Geometric Tranformation Program

WU Ze-fu

2013, 22(3):  179-184. 

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Based on the minimization principle of quadratic sum on pricing error for term structure of interest rate (TSIR), we introduce a geometric transformation program to solve optimization of absolute value on pricing error with nonlinear constraints, which enriches theory framework and research methods on pricing and volatility of interest rate in T-bill Market. To overcome excessive sensitivity of B-spline's node distribution and C² smoothness condition of discount function, we introduce negative exponential smoothness cubic L₁-spline optimization model with optimal constraint of absolute value of estimate error and second derivative of discount function, to increase the estimate, pricing and prediction ability of short-term interest rate's volatility structure mutation, improve the advantage on depicting the medium or long term interest rate volatility trend, and reduce the excessive volatility of TSIR estimate based on NSS model and B-spline.

Supply Chain Coordination Based on Inventory Financing

BAI Shi-zhen, XU Na, YAN Zhang-hua

2013, 22(3):  185-193. 

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To study supply chain coordination problems under inventory financing, and verify the coordination effect of the buy-back contract, a centralized supply Chain is constructed. Using the optimization theory and methods, a supply chain model without any contracts, a supply chain model with a traditional buy-back contract and a supply chain model with a buy-back contract considering the target quantity are constructed. The coordination results are proved through the comparison among supply chain profits in the three cases. Perfect coordination conditions are given by analyzing the profits under different decision patterns. Finally, study results are illustrated by a numerical example.

The Application of Set Pair Analysis in Fuzzy Rule Extraction of Domestic Economy Growth

YANG Hong-mei

2013, 22(3):  194-200. 

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In accordance with the complexity of rough set and fuzzy clustering to extract domestic economy growth, we use the set pair analysis to analyze the fuzzy rule extraction of economic growth in 31 cities. The result shows that this kind of method is not only simple but also can extract economic growth rule at macroscopic level——fixed asset investment plays a more important role to promote GDP than human resource,and reveals the economic growth rule of each city at microscopic level, and also provides decision-making reference for the implement of twelfth five-year plan on economy.

Management Science

Disruption Management on Unrelated Machines Scheduling Considering Modification of Machine's Production Rate

LIU Feng, WANG Jian-jun, YANG De-li, ZOU Zong-bao

2013, 22(3):  201-208. 

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In unrelated machines scheduling, the initial schedule which minimizes production cost is no longer optimal due to emergent rate-modifying disruptions. A decision-maker needs to adjust the initial optimal schedule and balance between production costs and disruption-caused deviations. A rescheduling model is established which considers both the production costs and deviations. The former objective is total machine load and the latter objective is job's reassignment costs among different machines. An algorithm for obtaining the Pareto front of rescheduling problem is designed. Moreover, by transforming two objectives into one non-linear binary function based on decision-maker's preference, the algorithm which optimizes the binary function and returns a Pareto solution is developed. In numerical experiments compared with whole Pareto front, the algorithm optimizing binary function only needs to search a small portion of Pareto front. The percentage of Pareto solutions searched and CPU running time is greatly reduced, and the efficiency of problem-solving is improved.

Research on First-price Sealed Bidding Considering Transaction Costs

GAO Xing, CAO Ji-ming, LI Chong

2013, 22(3):  209-213. 

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In the symmetry independent private value model with bidding cost, the paper builds a first-price sealed bidding game model and provides the symmetric cut-off strategy & bidding equilibrium. The research indicates that transaction costs exclude bidders of high cost type, but cause the uncertainty of bidders' participation. To decrease the possibility of inefficient bidding, the tenders must limit the number of potential bidders. In addition, it is profitable for the participators to reduce the transaction costs and it is practicable for tenders to subsidize the bidders to encourage their participation in the bidding.

Incentives and Coordination in Supply Chain Based on Virtual-third Party

HUANG Mei-ping, WANG Xian-yu, GENG Zi-yang

2013, 22(3):  214-221. 

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To solve the adverse selection and moral hazard when the supplier hides its information about production cost, and the retailer hides its action about sales effort, a virtual-third party is introduced as a coordination body to implement double incentives on the basis of principal agent theory. And respectively from the perspective of supplier and retailer, a contract is designed to incent the supplier to tell the truth and the retailer to work hard. The results show that if there is only moral hazard, the perfect coordination of the supply chain could be realized by the contract as expression(16). However, if there is not only moral hazard but also adverse selection, the coordination of the supply chain could be achieved only when the contract parameter has a constant value. And this value is related to the trading volumeq and the supplier's production costc(as expression(29)). Moreover, the supplier is encouraged to cut its production cost and the retailer is incented to improve the effort level, so the “win-win” result is reached. Finally, a numerical example is given to illustrate application of this model.

Incentive Mechanism Design in the Tourism Service Supply Chain under the Framework of Dual Asymmetric Information

NIU Wen-ju, LUO Ding-ti, LU Fang

2013, 22(3):  222-229. 

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The adverse selection and moral hazard caused by information asymmetry between the travel agency and the tour guides in the tourism service supply do make damage to the travel agency's interests, so an important question is how the travel agency can screen the true ability of the tour guides and provide incentive mechanism to make them work more effectively. The tour guides' two kinds of private information, which are the service ability and the effort level cannot be observed, but their service performance can be measured by the travel agency. This paper designs the incentive mechanism by using game theory, information economics theory, etc., under the condition that the tour guides' service ability is continuous, and obtains the parameters of the optimal incentive mechanism by using optimization theory. The results show that the travel agency shall design different incentive mechanisms for the tour guides who possess different service ability. The incentive mechanism under dual asymmetric information not only has the function of self-selection screening for the tour guides, but also can induce them to enhance their effort level.

Impact of Product Sampling on the New Product Diffusion Incorporating Multiple-unit Ownership

HU Zhi-neng, XIE Rui-kun, XU Jiu-ping

2013, 22(3):  230-241. 

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The multiple-unit adoptions are quite common in the purchasing process of nondurables. Based on the Bass model, this paper develops a new diffusion model involving free product samples and considering the multiple-unit adoptions as a diffusion process; then, the paper introduces the repeat purchase and pricing strategies to build an optimal model group. The simulation analysis of free samples under two types of purchase styles and the sensitive analysis of some key parameters in the model group indicate that like the case of individual purchase, free samples can accelerate the diffusion process when there are multiple-unit adoptions; moreover, to achieve a higher profit, it deserves the firm to send more free samples than ones in the case of only individual purchase. Also, the more multiple units purchased, the more free samples should be sent, even sent to every consumer, which can make more consumers to know the product. Furthermore, the benefit of sampling at time zero is larger than sampling at any other periods, which forms “A promotional phenomenon of sampling at time zero”. Finally, the paper shows the trend and extent of the impact of the parameters on the sampling level.

A Harvesting Model for Sale of Fresh Agricultural Products with Growth Value

CHEN Jun, LAI Xin, HE Yuan

2013, 22(3):  242-247. 

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The growth value increment contributes to the increase of channel value. For this reason, an ameliorating and deteriorating inventory model is established with demand depending on ripeness which changes with time linearly. Then the profit models of farmers are established for two situations: fresh agricultural products(FAP)are harvested for sale at growing-finishing point and at ripe critical point. At last, the solution is obtained by optimal theory. The conclusion suggests that if FAP are harvested at ripe critical point, the farmer can get more profit; once FAP reach their critical ripeness, the farmer should stop his productive effort.

Project-based Supply Chain Cross-organizational Multi-periods Dynamic Incentives Based on Bonus-Penalty Structure

WU Guang-dong, SHI Jian-gang

2013, 22(3):  248-255. 

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On the basis of equal cooperation between project-based enterprises, this paper establishes project-based supply chain cross-organizational multi-periods dynamic incentives model based bonus-penalty structure, which the project management enterprises implement to contractors, thus analyzes the influence of the bonus-penalty structure between project-based enterprises on their effort level, project net benefit and the project success probability, and then the related numerical analysis is presented for the purpose of proving the model theoretical analysis conclusions. The results reflect that, the project management enterprise executes the bonus plus penalty strategy to contractors and upgrads the bonus plus penalty with the project schedule evolved, which can not only boost the probability of project-period success, but also defend contractor moral hazard behavior and realize project-based enterprises' related net benefits improvement between the cooperative partners as well.