不确定需求下页岩气开发项目投资时机与钻井数量选择研究

doi:10.12005/orms.2017.0016

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 基于工程化实现视角,结合规划产能与实际产出的不一致性和产量递减性,构建市场需求不确定情境下页岩气开发项目的投资时机与钻井数量决策模型,给出最佳投资时机和最优钻井数量的解析解,并探讨了不确定性、产量递减率、钻井成功率以及钻井成本变动对最佳投资时机和最优钻井数量的影响。结果表明最佳投资时机受单位有效钻井成本影响却与最优钻井数量多少无关,最优钻井数量受市场需求的期望增长率和波动影响而与市场需求量大小无关;不确定性、产量递减率或钻井成本的增大,将引起投资延迟和钻井数量增加,而钻井成功率的增大则会起到相反的作用;并发现投资阈值与最优钻井数量呈同向变动规律。

关键词: 不确定性, 投资时机, 钻井数量, 产量递减率, 钻井成功率, 钻井成本

Abstract: Based on the engineering implementation perspective and combined with the inconsistency of planning capacity and actual output and production decline, we establish decision model of investment timing and drilling quantity of shale gas project under the situation of demand uncertainty, get the analytical solution of the optimal investment timing and the optimal drilling quantity. What’s more, we also discuss the uncertainty, production decline rate, drilling success rate and the drilling cost change on the influence of the optimal timing of investment and the optimal number of drilling. The results show that the optimal timing of investment is influenced by the unit effective drilling cost but has nothing to do with the optimal number of drilling, and the optimal number of drilling is affected by market demand expected growth rate and volatility but has nothing to do with the market demand. The increase of uncertainty, production decline rate, or drilling cost, will cause the investment timing delay and increase in the number of drilling. The increase of drilling success rate will have the opposite effect. We also find that investment threshold and the optimal number of drilling has the same change rule.

Key words: uncertainty, investment timing, drilling quantity, production decline rate, well success rate, well-cost

中图分类号:

F272.3

刘子晗, 郭菊娥, 王占浩. 不确定需求下页岩气开发项目投资时机与钻井数量选择研究[J]. 运筹与管理, 2017, 26(1): 113-120.

LIU Zi-han, GUO Ju-e, WANG Zhan-hao. Investment Timing and Capacity Choose of Shale Gas DevelopingProject under Demand Uncertainty[J]. Operations Research and Management Science, 2017, 26(1): 113-120.

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