关键词: 过度自信, 存货质押, 订货量, 销售努力, 质押率

Abstract: Inventory financing is an effective measure of short-term financing for small and medium-sized enterprises, and the overconfidence of enterprises on demand affects the decisions of financing enterprises and banks, which influence the expected profits of enterprises and banks. Aiming at the problem of inventory financing decision-making in overconfidence environment, a joint decision model of inventory financing is constructed, which consists of the overconfidence retailer and bank. The Stackelberg is adopted to analyze the impact of two kinds of overconfidence degree which includes high estimation of capacity and excessive precision of estimation on the decision variables. It shows that the overconfident retailers are radical on inventory impawn financing, and the retailers' demand on capital, effort and procurement increase with the increase of the degree of overconfidence. Furthermore, it brings deviation between the expected profit and the actual profit. When the market environment is low profit, loan-to-value ratio declines with the increase of the overconfidence degree, and in the lucrative market environment, the loan-to-value ratio declines with the increase of the overconfidence of estimation of capacity, and increases with the increase of the overconfidence of precision of estimation.

Key words: overconfidence, inventory financing, order quantity, sale effort, loan-to-value ratios