关键词: 随机需求, 低碳供应链, 碳限额与交易机制, 银行借贷, 持股策略, 组合融资

Abstract: When the demand is stochastic and affected by emissions level of manufacturer, under the influence of cap-and-trade, the paper researches the optimal decision and profit of manufacturer pure bank loan and portfolio financing of supplier shareholding, and analyses consumer preference, carbon low carbon trading and supplier's investment holdings to the influence of the optimal decision and profits of supply chain. The research shows that, without funding constraints, simple bank loan and portfolio financing, consumers' low carbon preference, carbon trading price and shareholding ratio are positively correlated with manufacturers' emission reduction level and profit as well as the profit of supply chain system. and supplier's wholesale price and manufacturer's production are positively correlated with consumers' low-carbon preference, and negatively correlated with carbon trading price, while shareholding ratio is negatively correlated with supplier's wholesale price, and positively correlated with manufacturers' production and emission reduction level. Under the shareholding strategy, the emission reduction level and production capacity of the manufacturer are the highest, followed by that of the manufacturer without capital constraints, and the lowest when the bank simply borrows money. When there is no capital constraint, the wholesale price of supplier is the highest, followed by pure bank loan, and the shareholding strategy is the lowest. When the shareholding ratio meets certain conditions, the profit of supplier and manufacturer is better than that of bank loan alone, and can be better than that without capital constraints, which improves the competitiveness and efficiency of the supply chain.

Key words: random demand, low-carbon supply chain, cap-and-trade, bank loan, shareholding strategy, portfolio financing