关键词: 资金约束, 随机产出, 预付款融资, Stackelberg博弈模型

Abstract: An agricultural supply chain decision system consisting of a farmer and a company is studied, where the farmer is a capital-constrained supplier under yield uncertainty. Farmers can apply for an advance payment financing from the company to alleviate financial pressure. In order to study the decision-making and benefits of all parties in the supply chain under the advance payment financing model, this paper constructs the operational decision model under the traditional financing model and the prepayment advance payment model, and analyzes and compares both of them. The research results show that the profit obtained by farmers in bank financing when they have bankruptcy risk is not optimal. In some cases, both parties will obtain greater benefits by adopting advance payment financing. Farmers' optimal decision-making schemes are affected by the harvest annual output factor, bank interest rate and price elasticity coefficient. When the harvest annual output factor is small or the bank interest rate is high, the prepayment financing model can bring more benefits to the farmers. When the harvest annual output factor is low, the financing strategy of farmers has the same impact on the company's profits. When the harvest annual output factor is moderate, the company expects farmers to choose the advance payment financing.

Key words: capital-constrained, yield uncertainty, advance payment financing, stackelberg game model