一种基于证据推理的多指标多标度大群体决策方法

运筹与管理 ›› 2011, Vol. 20 ›› Issue (2): 15-20.

一种基于证据推理的多指标多标度大群体决策方法

张晓, 樊治平

东北大学工商管理学院,辽宁沈阳 110004

收稿日期:2009-11-17 出版日期:2011-04-25
作者简介:张晓(1985-),女,河南南阳人,博士研究生,研究方向:决策理论与方法;樊治平(1961-),男,江苏镇江人,教授,博士生导师,研究方向:决策理论与方法、运作管理等。
基金资助:
国家创新研究群体科学基金资助项目(71021061);国家自然科学基金资助项目(90924016);中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助项目(N100606003);教育部博士研究生学术新人奖资助

A Method for Large Group Decision Making with Multi-attribute and Multi-identifier Based on Evidential Reasoning

ZHANG Xiao, FAN Zhi-ping

School of Business Administration, Northeastern University, Shenyang 110004, China

Received:2009-11-17 Online:2011-04-25

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 针对多指标多标度大群体决策问题,提出了一种基于证据推理的决策方法。首先将参与决策人针对各指标给出的方案评价信息转化为关于指标评价标度的概率分布,然后运用证据推理方法将针对不同指标的概率分布形式的群体评价信息进行集结,得到关于综合评价标度分布形式的群体综合评价信息,在此基础上计算每个方案的效用值,并据此对方案进行排序。最后,通过一个实例说明了本文提出方法的可行性和有效性。本文的方法为解决大群体决策问题提供了一种新途径,具有实际应用价值。

关键词: 管理科学, 大群体决策, 证据推理, 概率分布, 可信度

Abstract: This paper proposes a method for large group decision making with multi-attribute and multi-identifier based on evidential reasoning. Firstly, the evaluation information of each alternative with regard to each attribute given by the decision making participants is transformed into the probability distribution of attribute identifiers. Then, the group evaluation information in the form of the probability distribution of attribute identifiers with regard to each attribute is integrated using evidential reasoning approach, and the comprehensive group evaluation information in the form of the probability distribution of general identifiers is obtained. Furthermore, the ranking result of alternatives is obtained by calculating the utility of each alternative. Finally, a numerical example is used to illustrate the feasibility and validity of proposed method. The method provides a new way to solve the large group decision making problem and has practical application value.

Key words: management science, large group decision making, evidential reasoning, probability distribution, degree of belief

中图分类号:

C934

张晓, 樊治平. 一种基于证据推理的多指标多标度大群体决策方法[J]. 运筹与管理, 2011, 20(2): 15-20.

ZHANG Xiao, FAN Zhi-ping. A Method for Large Group Decision Making with Multi-attribute and Multi-identifier Based on Evidential Reasoning[J]. Operations Research and Management Science, 2011, 20(2): 15-20.

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