需求拉动型供应链突发风险传递模型

运筹与管理 ›› 2011, Vol. 20 ›› Issue (5): 14-19.

需求拉动型供应链突发风险传递模型

刘家国

哈尔滨工程大学经济管理学院,黑龙江哈尔滨 150001

收稿日期:2010-02-04 出版日期:2011-10-25
作者简介:刘家国(1979-),男,湖北枣阳人,副教授,博士,研究方向:供应链突发事件管理、船舶工程管理。
基金资助:
黑龙江省自然科学基金(QC2009C26);教育部高等学校博士点专项基金(200802171023);教育部人文社会科学一般研究项目(11YJC630131)。

Model of Emergencies Risk Transmission in Demand-pull Supply Chain

LIU Jia-guo

School of Economics and Management, Harbin Engineering University, Harbin 150001, China

Received:2010-02-04 Online:2011-10-25

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 研究突发事件风险在需求拉动型供应链中传递的效应和规律。以博弈论思想为指导,分析了突发事件风险在需求拉动型供应链中传递的过程,建立了相应的风险传递模型,计算了供应链双方利润的需求风险弹性系数。研究表明:供应链双方利润与市场容量呈正相关,与价格敏感系数呈负相关;突发事件引起的市场容量变化对供应链双方利润的影响要远大于价格弹性系数变化对供应链双方利润的影响;无论供应链成本如何变化,供应链各方利润对需求总量和需求倾向的各风险弹性系数恒大于1,说明下游需求的小幅变动可能引起上游利润的大幅变动,证明了牛鞭效应的存在。

关键词: 供应链管理, 博弈论, 风险传递, 需求波动, 突发事件

Abstract: To study the mechanism of emergencies risk transmission in demand-pull supply chain, the risk transmission process is analyzed, and some models are presented using game theory. Studies show that the market capacity is positively correlated with the profit of the supplier and retailer, but the price sensitivity is to the contrary. And the influence of market capacity is more sensitive than price sensitivity’ to the profit. It proves the existence of the bullwhip effect. No matter how the cost changes, both the risk elasticity coefficients are more than 1.

Key words: supply chain management, game theory, risk transmission, demand fluctuation risk, emergencies

中图分类号:

F224.32

刘家国. 需求拉动型供应链突发风险传递模型[J]. 运筹与管理, 2011, 20(5): 14-19.

LIU Jia-guo. Model of Emergencies Risk Transmission in Demand-pull Supply Chain[J]. Operations Research and Management Science, 2011, 20(5): 14-19.

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