核电资源替代煤电资源的临界时点分析模型

运筹与管理 ›› 2013, Vol. 22 ›› Issue (5): 233-239.

核电资源替代煤电资源的临界时点分析模型

闫庆友, 汤新发

华北电力大学经济与管理学院,北京 102206

收稿日期:2012-11-29 出版日期:2013-10-25
作者简介:闫庆友(1963-),男,教授,博士,博士后博士生导师,研究方向为电力经济;汤新发(1980-),男,讲师,博士研究生,研究方向为优化理论与技术经济决策,电力经济。
基金资助:
中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助项目(12QX21);安徽省哲学社会科学规划项目(AHSK11-12D99)

Critical Time Point Analysis Model of Substituting Coal Power Resources for Nuclear Power Resources

YAN Qing-you, TANG Xin-fa

School of Economics and Management, North China Electric Power University, Beijing 102206, China

Received:2012-11-29 Online:2013-10-25

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 随着煤电资源的逐渐耗竭,传统电力资源的替代资源开发成为我国电力可持续发展的重要途径。为探讨核电资源替代煤电资源的经济规律,构建了一个电力资源社会价值评估模型。以电力资源社会价值最大化为目标,运用动态优化理论求解,得出核电资源替代煤电资源的临界替代时点,分析核电资源替代煤电资源的替代条件,剖析电力生产外部性对电力资源配置效率的影响程度及导致电力资源配置低效率的具体原因。认为电力生产部门的外部性影响电力资源的配置效率,阻碍核电资源替代煤电资源的发展进程。就电力生产部门的实际情况提出了相应的政策建议,以促进低碳清洁的核电资源替代煤电资源,实现环境、经济与电力可持续发展。

关键词: 资源经济, 动态优化, 电力资源, 边际机会成本, 外部性

Abstract: Along with the increasing demand of electric power in china, the coal EPR is depleting. The development of alternative resources of traditional electric power resources has become an important way for the sustainable development of electric power in our country. We construct a social value evaluation model for electric power resources, so as to explore the economic law of nuclear EPR to replace coal EPR. By using the optimization theory, we compute the ideal time of nuclear power resources replacing coal power resources and analyze the replacement condition between nuclear power resources and coal power resources. Then, we analyze to what extent it is affected and what is the reason of power resource allocation under the condition of production externality. We find that the process of nuclear power replacing coal fire electric power is blocked by the externality of production process of electricity. According to the actual situation electric power production we put forward the corresponding incentive recommendation to promote low coal clear power resources replacing high coal dirty fire electric power resources to realize the sustainable development of environment, economic and electric power.

Key words: resource economics, dynamic optimization, electric power resources, marginal opportunity cost, externality

中图分类号:

C935

闫庆友, 汤新发. 核电资源替代煤电资源的临界时点分析模型[J]. 运筹与管理, 2013, 22(5): 233-239.

YAN Qing-you, TANG Xin-fa. Critical Time Point Analysis Model of Substituting Coal Power Resources for Nuclear Power Resources[J]. Operations Research and Management Science, 2013, 22(5): 233-239.

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