基于混沌理论的创新网络中组织间信任演化研究

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 以往关于信任的研究是在稳定均衡的假设下进行的,然而信任演化过程中会表现出非线性的混沌状态,具有复杂系统的特征。基于演化博弈理论和混沌理论,建立了创新网络中组织间信任演化模型,分析了创新网络中组织间信任的复杂性、初值敏感性、分岔行为及内随机性等混沌特性,推导出信任演化方程与Logistic映射之间的关系,采用Lyapunov稳定性理论进行混沌性判定,证明创新网络中组织间信任通过倍周期分岔通往混沌,得到了信任从有序进入混沌的一般条件,运用算例进行仿真展示信任演化通往混沌的过程,分析创新网络中信任演化进入混沌区的实际意义,并选择硅谷和筑波科技城两个实例做对比分析,验证了该研究的实用性和有效性。创新网络中组织间信任的混沌演化反映出信任发展的非线性特点,为创新网络中组织间信任的混沌利用和控制提供理论指导。

关键词: 技术创新, 信任演化, 混沌理论, 创新网络

Abstract: Previous research on trust has been carried out under the assumption of stable equilibrium. Actually the nonlinear chaotic state appears in the process of trust evolution in innovation networks. And inter-organizational trust evolution in innovation networks evolves with the characteristics of complex systems. Chaos has an extremely sensitive dependence on initial conditions. No matter how small the deviation of the given initial conditions is, the result at some point in the can could be very different from the actual situation. Chaotic characteristics of inter-organizational trust in innovation networks are analyzed based on chaos theory, such as complexity, sensitivity to initial value, bifurcation behavior and inner randomness. The differential equations of inter-organizational trust evolution in innovation networks are established based on evolutionary game theory. The relationship between trust evolution equation and the logistic mapping is deduced. Trust chaos is determined by the Lyapunov stability theory. Inter-organizational trust in innovation networks leads to chaos through the period-doubling bifurcation. The general conditions in which trust comes to chaos instead of being in good order are gotten. The path through which trust evolution leads to chaos has been demonstrated by the simulation with a numerical example. The practical significance of trust evolution chaos in the innovation network is analyzed. The feasibility and effectiveness of the research is proved with the comparison of Silicon Valley and Tsukuba Science City. The chaotic evolution of inter-organizational trust in innovation networks can reflect the non-linear character of trust development and it can provide theoretical guidance for the application of chaos and chaotic control of inter-organizational trust in innovation networks.

Key words: technological innovation, trust evolution, chaos theory, innovation network

中图分类号:

F270

韩亚品, 胡珑瑛. 基于混沌理论的创新网络中组织间信任演化研究[J]. 运筹与管理, 2014, 23(4): 219-227.

HAN Ya-pin, HU Long-ying. Inter-Organizational Trust Evolution in Innovation Networks Based on Chaos Theory[J]. Operations Research and Management Science, 2014, 23(4): 219-227.

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