供应链交互作用对牛鞭效应的影响分析

doi:10.12005/orms.2016.0081

运筹与管理 ›› 2016, Vol. 25 ›› Issue (3): 39-45.DOI: 10.12005/orms.2016.0081

供应链交互作用对牛鞭效应的影响分析

孙永权^1,2,白雪莲^1,2,马云高^1,2,3,王能民^1,2

1.西安交通大学管理学院,陕西西安 710049;
2.过程控制与效率工程教育部重点实验室,陕西西安 710049;
3.国网能源研究院,北京 102209

收稿日期:2014-04-11 出版日期:2016-06-25
作者简介:孙永权(1972-),男,湖北荆门人,博士后,主要研究方向为供应链管理、财务管理及宏观调控。
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金资助项目(70602017,70971105,71071126);国家社会科学基金重大项目(1282D070);陕西省自然科学基础研究计划项目(2010JM9003);国家博士后基金项目(2013M532024)

the Impact of Supply Chain Interactions on the Bullwhip Effect

SUN Yong-quan^{1, 2}, BAI Xue-lian^{1, 2}, MA Yun-gao^{1, 2, 3}, WANG Neng-min^{1, 2}

1.School of Management, Xi’an Jiaotong University, Xi’an 710049 China;
2.The Key Lab of the Ministry of Education for Process Control & Efficiency Engineering, Xi’an 710049, China;
3. State Grid Energy Research Institute, Beijing 102209, China

Received:2014-04-11 Online:2016-06-25

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 考虑两平行供应链系统,建立了需求依赖于两种产品价格的需求函数模型,分析了平行供应链交互作用对牛鞭效应的影响。研究表明:(1)供应链交互作用可能增加或减弱牛鞭效应。(2)对于具有产品可替代性的两竞争型供应链系统,若产品价格交互敏感性不强,则较大协方差的引入可以抑制牛鞭效应。(3)对于具有产品互补性的两合作型供应链系统,若产品价格交互敏感性较强,则较小协方差的引入可以抑制牛鞭效应。

关键词: 供应链管理, 牛鞭效应, 平行供应链, 交互作用, 价格敏感

Abstract: Considering two-parallel supply chains, this paper studies the demand model that depends on two product prices and analyses the impact of interactions on the bullwhip effect in two-parallel supply chains. The results reveal that: (1)The interactions between the two supply chains may increase or dampen the bullwhip effect. (2)When the two-parallel supply chains are competitors due to product substitutability, if the product in one supply chain has a small interacting price sensitivity coefficient, then the interaction can dampen the bullwhip effect when the price evolution covariance between the two supply chains is large. (3)When the two-parallel supply chains are partners or their products are complementary, if the product in one supply chain has a large absolute interacting price sensitivity coefficient, then the interaction can dampen the bullwhip effect when the price evolution covariance between the two supply chains is small.

Key words: supply chain management, bullwhip effect, parallel supply chains, interaction, price-sensitive

中图分类号:

F253.4

孙永权,白雪莲,马云高,王能民. 供应链交互作用对牛鞭效应的影响分析[J]. 运筹与管理, 2016, 25(3): 39-45.

SUN Yong-quan, BAI Xue-lian, MA Yun-gao, WANG Neng-min. the Impact of Supply Chain Interactions on the Bullwhip Effect[J]. Operations Research and Management Science, 2016, 25(3): 39-45.

参考文献

[1] Lee H L, Padmanabhan V, Whang S. The bullwhip effect in supply chains[J]. Sloan Management Review, 1997, 38(3): 93-102.
[2] Lee H L, Padmanabhan V, Whang S. Information distortion in a supply chain: the bullwhip effect[J]. Management Science, 1997, 43(4): 546-558.
[3] Forrester J W. Industrial dynamics: a major breakthrough for decision makers[J]. Harvard Business Review, 1958, 36(4): 37-66.
[4] Sterman J D. Modeling managerial behavior: misperceptions of feedback in a dynamic decision making experiment[J]. Management Science, 1989, 35(3): 321-339.
[5] Chen F, Drezner Z, Ryan J K, et al. Quantifying the bullwhip effect in a simple supply chain: the impact of forecasting, lead times, and information[J]. Management Science, 2000, 46(3): 436-443.
[6] Chen F, Ryan J K, Simchi-Levi D. The impact of exponential smoothing forecasts on the bullwhip effect[J]. Naval Research Logistics, 2000, 47(4): 269-286.
[7] Zhang X L. The impact of forecasting methods on the bullwhip effect[J]. International Journal of Production Economics, 2004, 88(1): 15-27.
[8] Alwan L C, Liu J J, Yao D Q. Stochastic characterization of upstream demand processes in a supply chain[J]. IIE Transactions, 2003, 35(3): 207-219.
[9] Ma Y, Wang N, Che A, et al. The bullwhip effect on product orders and inventory: a perspective of demand forecasting techniques[J]. International Journal of Production Research, 2013, 51(1): 281-302.
[10] Ma Y, Wang N, Che A, et al. The bullwhip effect under different information-sharing settings: a perspective on price-sensitive demand that incorporates price dynamics[J]. International Journal of Production Research, 2013, 51(10): 3085-3116.
[11] Zhang X L, Zhao Y. The impact of external demand information on parallel supply chains with interacting demand[J]. Production and Operations Management, 2010, 19(4): 463-479.
[12] Zhang X L, Burke G J. Analysis of compound bullwhip effect causes[J]. European Journal of Operational Research, 2011, 210(3): 514-526.
[13] Sodhi M S, Tang C S. The incremental bullwhip effect of operational deviations in an arborescent supply chain with requirements planning[J]. European Journal of Operational Research. 2011, 215(2): 374-382.
[14] Agrawal S, Sengupta R N, Shanker K. Impact of information sharing and lead time on bullwhip effect and on-hand inventory[J]. European Journal of Operational Research. 2009, 192(2): 576-593.
[15] Hosoda T, Disney S M. On variance amplification in a three-echelon supply chain with minimum mean square error forecasting[J]. Omega-International Journal of Management Science. 2006, 34(4): 344-358.
[16] Dejonckheere J, Disney S M, Lambrecht M R, et al. The impact of information enrichment on the bullwhip effect in supply chains: a control engineering perspective[J]. European Journal of Operational Research. 2004, 153(3): 727-750.
[17] Disney S M, Towill D R. On the bullwhip and inventory variance produced by an ordering policy[J]. Omega-International Journal of Management Science. 2003, 31(3): 157-167.
[18] Hamister J W, Suresh N C. The impact of pricing policy on sales variability in a supermarket retail context[J]. International Journal of Production Economics. 2008, 111(2): 441-455.
[19] Cachon G P, Randall T, Schmidt G M. In search of the bullwhip effect[J]. Manufacturing & Service Operations Management. 2007, 9(4): 457-479.
[20] Hamilton J D. Time series analysis[M]. Princeton University Press, 1994.

供应链交互作用对牛鞭效应的影响分析

the Impact of Supply Chain Interactions on the Bullwhip Effect

PDF

可视化

摘要/Abstract

引用本文

使用本文

参考文献

相关文章 15

编辑推荐

Metrics

[1]	赵道致, 王迪. 基于降低失效停放区比率的共享单车系统稳定性研究[J]. 运筹与管理, 2021, 30(5): 60-65.
[2]	孙琦, 马骋, 柏庆国. 基于风险偏好的供应链企业社会责任投入与定价策略研究[J]. 运筹与管理, 2021, 30(4): 47-53.
[3]	姜明, 李洪心, 刘德海. 基于电子商务B2B平台的个性化定制产品供应链治理结构重复博弈分析[J]. 运筹与管理, 2020, 29(8): 45-51.
[4]	杜娟. 需求和汇率风险下的全球供应链汇率风险对冲策略[J]. 运筹与管理, 2019, 28(9): 167-172.
[5]	罗美玲, 李刚. 多渠道供应链中的跨渠道退货服务策略研究[J]. 运筹与管理, 2019, 28(2): 16-22.
[6]	曲佳莉, 胡本勇, 陈旭. 销售商出售看跌期权的供应链优化研究[J]. 运筹与管理, 2019, 28(2): 23-29.
[7]	张宇宁, 侯福均. 基于属性间交互作用指标的多属性决策方法[J]. 运筹与管理, 2018, 27(9): 1-7.
[8]	韦才敏, 李忠萍, 范衠. 不同博弈框架下多竞争零售商的双渠道供应链定价决策研究[J]. 运筹与管理, 2018, 27(6): 63-74.
[9]	王道平, 李小燕, 赵亮. 碳交易机制下考虑制造商竞争的供应链协调研究[J]. 运筹与管理, 2018, 27(4): 62-71.
[10]	葛泽慧, 李倩, 戴淑芬. 成本不确定时企业技术创新联盟中的策略承诺分析[J]. 运筹与管理, 2017, 26(8): 167-173.
[11]	孙世民, 张园园. 基于进化博弈的猪肉供应链质量投入决策机制研究[J]. 运筹与管理, 2017, 26(5): 89-94.
[12]	秦娟娟, 张琛. 考虑公平偏好的供应链最优信用期和定价策略研究[J]. 运筹与管理, 2017, 26(4): 20-27.
[13]	温宗良, 陈嘉茵, 周永务, 嵇凯. 基于供应链金融的供应商链式融资策略研究[J]. 运筹与管理, 2017, 26(3): 17-26.
[14]	覃艳华, 曹细玉, 曹磊. 碳排放交易机制下的供应链运作策略及协调研究[J]. 运筹与管理, 2017, 26(3): 36-42.
[15]	黄敏镁, 袁际军, 曹亮. 基于NSGAII的协同产品开发项目自动协商决策[J]. 运筹与管理, 2017, 26(3): 86-91.