关键词: 产业渐变, 产业突变, 期权组合及规划

Abstract: In order to compete for the same market resources, start-ups in emerging industry will show the gradual change or the abrupt change in the process of the industry evolution. There is a high degree of uncertainty involved in the change of startup value. For the purpose of reducing the uncertainty risk of the investment decision and obtaining the stable investment income, firstly we use the method of the option portfolio to carry out the estimated variables decision at the first stage. Secondly, according to the different returns of the options, we combine the linear programming technology to make a compensatory optimization decision at the second stage. Through Baba, JD, Apple and Nokia sample companies’ data, we test the actual effect of the two stages option programming decision model in this paper. The conclusion shows that the method can reduce the uncertainty interference effectively in emerging industries investment. The application of this decision model can obtain stable income, make the risk in a controllable state, and achieve the goal of optimizing investment decision.

Key words: the industrial gradation, the industrial mutation, option portfolio and programming