关键词: 随机网络, 复杂装备研制, 多参数变量, 解析式算法, 特征函数, 风险管控

Abstract: In the process of complex product development, as the activities between milestone events contain multiple characteristic parameters and some parameters have uncertain stochastic distribution features, the analysis of traditional GERT network based on moment generating function misses some information, so that the assessment and optimization for project objectives become extremely difficult. In this paper, the development of complex equipment isregarded as an entire network system, which is constituted by a series of events. By defining CF-GERT network whose equivalent transmission relationship is made up of characteristic function and the probability of transmission, when there are multiple independent parameter variables between the state of product development activitiesthe analytical algorithm of complex equipment is studied. Taking the development process of a micro satellite as an example, the probability of success which is influenced by whole star weight, development cost, development schedule and other characteristic parameters of the event simultaneously is researched. By analyzing the reasons for low success rate, we can balance and optimize the performance indexes of the microsatellite, which can support risk management in the process of product research and development.

Key words: GERT network, development of complex equipment, multi-parameter variable, analytic algorithm, characteristic function, risk management