关键词: 灰色理论, 三参数离散灰色预测模型, 实域分数阶算子, 装甲装备维修经费预测

Abstract: The accumulating order of the existing three-parameter discrete grey forecasting model are limited to positive real numbers, which leads to the limitation of modeling ability and action space of the model. In this study, a unified grey generation operator in real number field is introduced. Moreover, a novel three-parameter discrete grey forecasting model based on this unified grey generation operator is constructed, and the expansion and optimization of its order from non-zero positive real number to all real numbers are realized. Therefore, this novel model has the dual function of mining the integral characteristic and difference information of time series data. Finally, the new model is applied to the modeling of maintenance cost of an armored equipment, and the results show that its accuracy is better than other similar grey models. The research results are of great value for improving the basic theory of grey operators and increasing the modeling ability of grey forecasting models.

Key words: grey theory, three-parameter discrete grey forecasting model, fractional operator in real number field, forecasting maintenance cost of armored equipment