运筹与管理 ›› 2023, Vol. 32 ›› Issue (2): 90-96.DOI: 10.12005/orms.2023.0050

• 理论分析与方法探讨 • 上一篇    下一篇

基于演化博弈的垃圾分类管理策略研究

张奇1,2,3, 刘江枫1,3, 李彦4, 房勇5   

  1. 1.中国石油大学(北京) 经济管理学院,北京 102249;
    2.中国石油大学(北京) 克拉玛依校区工商管理学院,克拉玛依,834000;
    3.中国石油大学(北京) 中国能源战略研究院,北京 102249;
    4.清华大学环境学院,北京 100084;
    5.中国科学院大学,北京 100190
  • 收稿日期:2021-01-13 出版日期:2023-02-25 发布日期:2023-03-28
  • 通讯作者: 张奇,博士,教授,博士生导师。
  • 作者简介:张奇(1979-),男,北京人,博士,教授,博士生导师,研究方向:资源环境系统管理与政策,能源环境经济与战略。
  • 基金资助:
    国家社会科学基金重大项目(21ZDA030);国家自然科学基金面上项目(42271305)

Study on A Management Strategy for Garbage Classification Based on Evolutionary Game Theory

ZHANG Qi1,2,3, LIU Jiangfeng1,3, LI Yan4, FANG Yong5   

  1. 1. School of Economics and Management, China University of Petroleum-Beijing, Beijing 102249, China;
    2. School of Business Administration, China University of Petroleum-Beijing at Karamay, Karamay 834000, China;
    3. Academy of Chinese Energy Strategy, China University of Petroleum-Beijing, Beijing 102249, China;
    4. School of Environment, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China;
    5. University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100090, China
  • Received:2021-01-13 Online:2023-02-25 Published:2023-03-28

摘要: 国内外研究经验表明,垃圾分类是缓解环境问题的重要举措。但是现行的垃圾分类激励机制存在居民负担重、推广阻力大等问题。本文提出将垃圾分类所得绿色积分与碳交易机制相结合的新型激励机制,并应用演化博弈理论建立了政府、企业与居民之间的三方非合作博弈模型,最终通过数值模拟量化分析关键参数对三方主体决策的影响。结果表明:(1)最终的演化均衡结果是:政府选择本文设计的垃圾分类积分机制、企业选择激进生产、居民选择执行垃圾分类;(2)通过数值模拟得出:①在积分机制下,政府可以通过增加10%以内的宣传监管投入或40%以内的企业补贴来推进演化过程;②居民的积分收益减少在30%以内、时间与体力支出增加在15%以内,仍应执行垃圾分类;③企业的额外产值收益减少在10%以内、积分价格增加在75%以内,仍会采取激进生产。因此,本文提出的积分机制相较于现行机制更具优势,有望为我国生活垃圾分类机制建设与循环经济发展提供决策支持。

关键词: 垃圾分类, 演化博弈, 积分机制

Abstract: The existing studies show that garbage classification is an important way to alleviate environmental issues. However, the current incentive mechanisms for garbage classification exist some problems, such as heavy burden on residents, great resistance to policy promotion, and so on. This paper proposes a new incentive mechanism which combines the green credits of garbage classification with the traditional carbon market. The evolutionary game theory is applied to develop a tripartite non-cooperative game model among the government, enterprises and residents. Finally, the sensitivity analysis is carried out on how the key parameters affect their decisions through numerical simulation. The results show that: (1)the final balance state is: the government will choose the credit mechanism, the enterprises choose the radical production, and the residents choose to carry out garbage classification; (2)based on the numerical simulation, it is concluded that: i)under the credit mechanism, the government can accelerate the evolution process by increasing propaganda and regulatory costs within 10% or enterprise subsidies within 40%; ii)when the credit income reduced by less than 30%, or the time and physical expenditure increased by less than 15%, the garbage classification is still optimal; iii)if the production income reduced by less than 10% or the credit price increased by less than 75%, the radical production decision is still optimal. Therefore, the credit mechanism proposed in this study is more efficient than the current incentive mechanisms.

Key words: garbage classification, evolutionary game, credit mechanism

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