关键词: 一带一路, 投资安全, 风险评估, 模糊推理

Abstract: For the past years, the world has been marked by changes unseen in a century and the international situation has become more and more turbulent. The anti-globalization trend is growing, particularly from Europe and the United States. This has brought even greater significance to “the Belt and Road” initiative. As Chinese companies’ investment in countries along “the Belt and Road” increases, numerous investment failure cases have also shown that Chinese enterprises lack identification and response to complex overseas risks. Based on this situation, China’s “14th Five-Year Plan” once again emphasizes the importance of building a system for protecting overseas interests and risk warning and prevention. Existing research focuses more on qualitative analysis, and quantitative methods rarely concern dynamic changes in the investment risk system of the host country, making it difficult to meet urgent practical needs.
Based on this, this article considers that the assessment of investment risks is actually a study of complex economic and social systems, with multiple influencing factors and nonlinear mechanisms. Fuzzy sets are used to construct a model of the real world by providing a set of all possible states to express uncertain and imprecise real states. According to the authoritative database of International Country Risk Guild, an international country risk rating agency in the United States, this paper constructs the foreign investment risk evaluation system with four aspects: political risk, economic risk, financial risk, and social risk. Fuzzy rules are formulated based on this database and expert knowledge. By combining fuzzy logic with reality, the analysis examines the impact of individual risk factors within different risk ranges on investment risk, as well as the mechanisms behind these impacts. Furthermore, through a two-dimensional mapping surface of fuzzy inference, the study analyzes the constraints and synergistic effects among the various factors, leading to the following findings: (1)Political environment plays a crucial role in ensuring investment security. (2)The influence of financial risk on investment risk is contingent upon the social environment. (3)There is a strong synergistic effect between economic and social risks, while the correlation between economic risk and financial risk is relatively weak.
On the basis of fuzzy inference, this paper has carried out scenarios for Myanmar, a neighboring country of China as well as the key country along “the Belt and Road”. Through a scientific analysis and reasonable construction of future scenarios, and by finding problems through risk assessment of the scenario, this paper gives risk warning and risk prevention countermeasures. Myanmar faces complex investment risks, including geopolitical sensitivity, political instability, ethnic conflicts and interference from major powers. There are also deep-rooted internal economic and social issues, which are of typical significance as a case study. Therefore, based on the current situation in Myanmar, two possible scenarios have been constructed: One is that the United States uses ideological and media means to incite anti-China sentiment and interfere with China’s investment in Myanmar. The other is that with the diplomatic mediation in ASEAN and surrounding countries, the internal situation in Myanmar is eased. China can provide support and assistance to Myanmar to help this country actively participates in the construction of the “the Belt and Road”. By using fuzzy inference to output investment indices for these two scenarios, it is possible to effectively quantify the impact of investment security risks in Myanmar and provide risk warning references for Chinese enterprises investing abroad.

Key words: the Belt and Road, investment safety, risk assessment, fuzzy inference