Improved Grey Target Risk Decision Model in Smart Transmission System Based on Prospect Theory

Operations Research and Management Science ›› 2014, Vol. 23 ›› Issue (3): 83-90.

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Improved Grey Target Risk Decision Model in Smart Transmission System Based on Prospect Theory

LI Cun-bin, CHAI Yu-feng, QI Zhi-qiang

North China Electric Power University, Beijing 102206, China

Received:2013-10-16 Online:2014-03-25

基于前景理论的智能输电系统改进灰靶风险决策模型研究

李存斌, 柴玉凤, 祁之强

华北电力大学经济与管理学院,北京 102206

作者简介:李存斌(1959-),男,教授,博士生导师,主要研究方向:智能电网风险管理与决策分析;柴玉凤(1988-),女,硕士研究生,主要研究方向:智能电网风险决策;祁之强(1989-),男,硕士研究生,主要研究方向:智能电网决策分析。
基金资助:
国家自然基金资助项目(71071054,71271084);中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助(13XS25)

Abstract

Abstract: The construction of the extra-high voltage and large-scale renewable energy access bring huge potential risk into the smart transmission system. This paper provides a new method for the research of smart transmission system risk decision in the multiple market environment. Based on the risk evaluation index of smart transmission System, considering uncertain and fuzzy of the index attribute、weight information and the attitude of facing the risk,and combining improved interval grey number and prospect theory, we provide improved grey target risk decision model based on prospect theory. Finally, it uses the example of the smart transmission system risk decision to verify the rationality and validity of this method.

Key words: risk decision, improved grey target model, interval grey number, the prospect theory, smart transmission system

摘要： 针对我国特高压建设与大规模可再生能源的接入带给智能输电系统的风险,文章提出一种在市场环境下输电系统的风险型多准则决策新方法。该方法基于已构建的智能输电系统风险评价指标体系,考虑指标属性与权重信息的不确定、模糊性以及决策者所持风险态度,结合改进的区间灰数与前景理论,构建了基于前景理论的改进灰靶风险决策模型,最后运用到智能输电系统风险决策案例验证了该方法的合理性和有效性。

关键词: 风险决策, 改进灰靶模型, 区间灰数, 前景理论, 智能输电系统离差最大化

CLC Number:

C934

LI Cun-bin, CHAI Yu-feng, QI Zhi-qiang. Improved Grey Target Risk Decision Model in Smart Transmission System Based on Prospect Theory[J]. Operations Research and Management Science, 2014, 23(3): 83-90.

李存斌, 柴玉凤, 祁之强. 基于前景理论的智能输电系统改进灰靶风险决策模型研究[J]. 运筹与管理, 2014, 23(3): 83-90.

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Improved Grey Target Risk Decision Model in Smart Transmission System Based on Prospect Theory

基于前景理论的智能输电系统改进灰靶风险决策模型研究

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