Abstract: Influenced by population policy, the number of college students’ source has entered into a downward stage. However, the recruitment of students scale of colleges is still growing. On some prediction and analysis,the students’ source crisis in China will arise in the next few years. In this paper, the bankruptcy model is constructed through bankruptcy theory in game theory. In order to obtain the optimal result which ensures that every college can get a satisfactory number of students in each stage, a multi-stage allocation scheme according to the allocation features of rule, rule and rule is raised in this paper and the idea of the iteration is used during the repeated construction of bankruptcy problem.This is the rule referred in this paper. At last, in order to promote a healthy and steady development of higher education in China, an advantage of the rule in dealing with college source crisis is analyzed after the consideration of special situation in China.

Key words: game theory, rule, bankruptcy model, college enrollment, student source crisis

摘要： 受人口政策因素的影响,我国高校生源数量已进入下降通道,但高校的招生规模却在不断增加,通过预测分析,我国将来可能会出现高校生源危机。为了分析潜在的生源危机下各高校招生人数的最佳分配方案,本文利用博弈论中破产理论来构造破产模型,根据CEA规则,P规则和CEL规则这三个破产规则的分配特点按照多阶段来分配高校生源人数。在分配的过程中,本文利用迭代的思想反复构造破产问题,让各高校在每个阶段尽可能的得到较为满意的招生人数,这个分配规则就是本文将介绍的APL规则。最后,考虑到我国的特殊情况,本文分析了APL规则在解决高考生源危机问题下的优越性,以期促进我国高等教育健康稳步发展。

关键词: 博弈论, 规则, 破产模型, 高校招生, 生源危机